Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl

ECM this morning says we will back under the influence of high pressure by the 4th April:

image.thumb.gif.2d7603f5ad47a31e087bc713f5da1e16.gif

GFS once again not so optimistic at this distance even by the 5th...

image.thumb.png.6428a20ac2a72c906201402f639fab51.png

but gets there or thereabouts by the next day:

image.thumb.png.5f5389370799b334f095f264efb46f3f.png

I am hoping that these conditions might last for a week or longer but we will have to patiently wait a few more days to find out....

Edited by Sky Full
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Good news is its going to be much warmer than most of last week with warm spells of sunshine, today looks the driest day nationwide but with more cloud in the east than the last few days. Tomorrow there is an increasing risk of showers, some heavy with thunder across southern and central areas but some areas will miss them and stay fine and warm, feeling notably warmer across the east tomorrow. From midweek it becomes more unsettled, especially across the n / w  with showers and longer spells of rain but with some warm sunshine too and becoming breezier as the week goes on with the best of the sunshine and dry weather, and also the warmest weather further s / se..pretty decent for the last week of March.:)

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Yep it's not even April yet and already scotland has recorded 20c yesterday and parts of the s / e will be pushing up to that and maybe even the magic 70F later this week..nice

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

A look at the NOAA, GEFS and EPS anomalies this morning as to any indications of the direction of travel in the medium term. Although there are still differences they are all on the same page so confidence reasonably high.

The main vortex lobe remains in the Franz Joseph area with associated trough eastern Europe with the secondary lobe Greenland and trough western Atlantic. The difference in orientation of these features is tending to dictate the renewed ridging of the Azores in the eastern Atlantic and thus the detail of the weather over the UK which the det. runs will need to sort. Suffice it to say at this stage the percentage play is for the Azores to be the major influence, and with the upper flow in a westerly/south westerly quadrant a few days of dry weather and temps a little above average is on the cards,

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.thumb.png.34d53a598b0bfaabe7611e16a1c71741.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.thumb.png.587fdaf09bb05a9752999f5ac91e5870.png610day_03.thumb.gif.a88f1937042633c57395dab58c55fd6c.gif

Going forward into the later time frame there is no agreement and this remains a work in progress. NOAA and the GEFS are are going for a relaxing of the vortex trough influence and although tending zonal retaining the Azores interest, The EPS not keen and keeps a trough to the NW of the UK. Essentially there is no clear signal to waffle about.

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_61.thumb.png.436f1eb6f9c64a237bde0c3d25ad9730.png814day_03.thumb.gif.8dea468f47192ef13cffa9437752aa3c.gif

 

Edited by knocker
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Looking beyond the unsettled blip (atlantic intrusion) later this week, the GEFS 00z mean shows the azores high building in again through early April with predominantly settled and warm weather, especially further south in the run up to Easter. 

21_168_500mb.png

21_192_500mb.png

21_216_500mb.png

21_240_500mb.png

21_264_500mb.png

21_288_500mb.png

21_312_500mb.png

21_336_500mb.png

21_360_500mb.png

21_372_500mb.png

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean shows the atlantic intrusion later this week and then a steady improvement as the azores high ridges in, early April could see a repeat of the lovely weekend with plenty of warm sunshine..fingers crossed.

ECMAVGEU00_120_1.png

ECMAVGEU00_144_1.png

ECMAVGEU00_168_1.png

ECMAVGEU00_192_1.png

ECMAVGEU00_216_1.png

ECMAVGEU00_240_1.png

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Hopefully not a repeat of yesterday when we had gusts of 50mph and a max of 12C. But then looking like the high pressure wilt have an entirely different orientation although one cannot rule out advection of moisture aloft and and thus copious amounts of Ci and notwithstanding a possibility of Sc layers.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
30 minutes ago, knocker said:

Hopefully not a repeat of yesterday when we had gusts of 50mph and a max of 12C. 

The vast majority of the uk had a beautiful weekend with unbroken sunshine, albeit a bit hazy at times with well above average daily maxima, seems you were in the unlucky minority.. models are again looking warm and settled for next week and potentially beyond, especially southern uk..well, the GEFS / ECM 00z mean is anyway.

Edited by Frosty.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

The vast majority of the uk had a beautiful weekend with unbroken sunshine, albeit a bit hazy at times with well above average daily maxima, seems you were in the unlucky minority.. models are again looking warm and settled for next week and potentially beyond, especially southern uk..well, the GEFS / ECM 00z mean is anyway.

Still got my eye on a potentially wet April 3, modeled to move through at night, but I wonder

ukprec.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
29 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Still got my eye on a potentially wet April 3, modeled to move through at night, but I wonder

ukprec.png

Going by the Gefs / Ecm 00z mean it does look like high pressure will be building in from the southwest from sunday and especially during next week with the south / southeast of the uk becoming predominantly settled and warmer whereas northern uk stays more changeable with temps closer to average and very much at the mercy of the atlantic but the more settled conditions could spread to all areas further into April which would bode well for Easter mid month.

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Some absolute dream spring charts this morning

gens-4-1-228.png

Such a shame that, in recent summers, we've seen so many of these forecasted only to be shunted quickly east as D0 approaches. 

(Mind you, shunting this one east would make it even warmer!!)

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
4 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Some nice warmth from Arpege on Thursday for large parts of England and Wales

C758HNjWkAAHQ8z.jpg

Pretty similar on GFS 0.25

81-582.GIF?27-6

Could be the first 70F day of the year

Winter's over :)

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

The vast majority of the uk had a beautiful weekend with unbroken sunshine, albeit a bit hazy at times with well above average daily maxima, seems you were in the unlucky minority.. models are again looking warm and settled for next week and potentially beyond, especially southern uk..well, the GEFS / ECM 00z mean is anyway.

Not so, even here the weather was cold and with a lot of high cloud as well, that nagging wind affected alot of areas and more than a minority. Hopefully this upcoming high pressure will be placed in a favourable position for all, as wearing a coat to keep warm is being tedious

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

UKMO shows an improvement by Sunday after some April showers on Saturday

Rukm1201.thumb.gif.c525c21901b528c65b979347e72eda15.gifRukm1441.thumb.gif.a02e153c7918ac579868b10b512d9915.gif

Edited by Summer Sun
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

A few posts have had to be hidden, Please continue discussing what the model outputs are showing please and use the banter/moan thread for chit-chat.

Thanks please continue. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Nice Gem 12z post atlantic blip..high pressure building in strongly and warming up again.

GEMOPEU12_144_1.png

GEMOPEU12_168_1.png

GEMOPEU12_192_1.png

GEMOPEU12_216_1.png

GEMOPEU12_240_1.png

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Wow, the Gfs 12z makes very little of the atlantic breakdown and its high pressure again from sunday until the end of the run. There are some really pleasantly warm days to come this week, and indeed further ahead into April..this is turning into a good spring.

12_75_uk2mtmp.png

12_99_uk2mtmp.png

12_123_uk2mtmp.png

12_147_uk2mtmp.png

12_171_mslp500.png

12_195_mslp500.png

12_219_mslp500.png

12_240_mslp500.png

12_264_mslp500.png

12_288_mslp500.png

12_336_uk2mtmp.png

12_360_uk2mtmp.png

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
24 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Nice Gem 12z post atlantic blip..high pressure building in strongly and warming up again.

GEMOPEU12_144_1.png

GEMOPEU12_168_1.png

GEMOPEU12_192_1.png

GEMOPEU12_216_1.png

GEMOPEU12_240_1.png

If those charts are anything to go by, Frosty (I mean Karl) we have many more warm days to enjoy?:good:

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

If those charts are anything to go by, Frosty (I mean Karl) we have many more warm days to enjoy?:good:

Certainly hope so Ed:D models are showing high pressure returning from sunday onwards..Looking very promising.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Some really warm / humid air pumping up on thurs and fri across the s / se in particular on the Ecm 12z..we could be looking at 20-21c from that in any decent sunshine ..and its still march..impressive stuff.

72_mslp850uk.png

96_mslp850uk.png

72_mslp850.png

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

High pressure faces a bit more of a challenge from the atlantic to build in again from sunday on the Ecm 12z than it did on the 00z but it still ends up winning as we go into next week..hopefully a settled and warm early / mid April to look forward to..which would mean a nice Easter holiday!:D

144_mslp500.png

168_mslp500.png

192_mslp500.png

216_mslp500.png

240_mslp500.png

240_mslp850uk.png

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
12 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

High pressure faces a bit more of a challenge from the atlantic to build in again from sunday on the Ecm 12z than it did on the 00z but it still ends up winning as we go into next week..hopefully a settled and warm early / mid April to look forward to..which would mean a nice Easter holiday!:D

 

Yes Frosty this run isn't quite as good- the 00z was spectacular in its latter stages. I would be slightly concerned about that high being a cloudy high in the latter stages of the run given its origins and a SW flow with TM air. I could be wrong though- I didn't expect this current high to produce this amount of unbroken sunshine!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
9 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Yes Frosty this run isn't quite as good- the 00z was spectacular in its latter stages. I would be slightly concerned about that high being a cloudy high in the latter stages of the run given its origins and a SW flow with TM air. I could be wrong though- I didn't expect this current high to produce this amount of unbroken sunshine!

Yes Scorcher but I still think the trend is good which is all that matters at this range..even the Ecm T+240 shows high pressure ganging up in the atlantic so I think it would keep building in and forcing the jet stream further north. 

Edited by Frosty.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...