Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17

[Frosty.]

Looking at the BBC weather charts it looks like cloud across southern uk will clear away southwestwards through tomorrow with plenty of blue sky and sunshine across most of the uk and sunny on saturday too under high pressure with temps up to the mid teens celsius, very pleasant indeed..similar on sun / mon / tues next week too..looks very good, some cloud coming and going but that's a minor quibble as its the best spell for some time.

Edited March 23, 2017 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

On the face of it, this will be a very pleasant spell according to these Ecm 12z charts with most of us seeing a decent amount of sunshine and max temps above average during the next 5 or 6 days..staying fine and warm longest further s / se.

So in summary

Settled weather

Warm sunshine 

A touch of overnight frost

Turning unsettled from the west during next Wed / Thurs

Edited March 23, 2017 by Frosty.

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening all ! High pressure building but given us lots of cloud and a raw wind in the south of the uk for the weekend and things change to the Atlantic next week! March has so many faces!!!!

[Frosty.]

It doesn't look as bad as that at all, fine and pleasantly warm for inland parts of the uk with long sunny periods once the early cloud tomorrow further south breaks up and clears away SW..It looks a sunny high rather than a cloudy one..staying warm and fine through to around next midweek..not bad

Edited March 23, 2017 by Frosty.

[johnholmes]

58 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It doesn't look as bad as that at all, fine and pleasantly warm for inland parts of the uk with long sunny periods once the early cloud tomorrow further south breaks up and clears away SW..It looks a sunny high rather than a cloudy one..staying warm and fine through to around next midweek..not bad

Maybe you should look at the Met O froecast for Wakefiled Frosty?

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcwcmu8w8

I would tend to agree more with their version of amounts of sunshine than your version. Like I suggested earlier today watch the predicted t-phi outputs and the visual sat piccs for a decent idea each morning of what to expect.

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Maybe you should look at the Met O froecast for Wakefiled Frosty?

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcwcmu8w8

I would tend to agree more with their version of amounts of sunshine than your version. Like I suggested earlier today watch the predicted t-phi outputs and the visual sat piccs for a decent idea each morning of what to expect.

I was going by the BBC weather charts this evening, it looks like an increasingly sunny few days ahead..according to them.

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Gfs 18z is a generally mild / very mild run, especially further south with high pressure in control more often than not and just an occasional atlantic intrusion with associated cooler air but overall it's a decent run for the time of year with pleasant warmth and sunshine but some chilly nights too.

[knocker]

A quick overview of the GFS this morning is still upbeat. Still indicating the pattern wobble next week with the vortex driven cold trough over Eurasia and the Canadian chunk popping into the Atlantic so though changes are afoot vis the UK with the high cell moving east simultaneously with the Atlantic trough, this portends a south westerly/southerly fetch to the flow and thus relatively warm air.

So a little detail. Everyone is aware that high pressure begins it's influence today as it tracks east to be come established over the UK for the weekend en route. So a pleasant weekend with cloud amounts being a bit tricky and maybe geographically specific as the orientation of the high cell shifts east As we move into next week the aforementioned changes are underway with a  large low pressure are in the Atlantic, the high pressure relegated, and south westerly warm zephyrs in place.

The low pressure area will continue to move slowly east during the week so although the temps will be above average the air steam will be quite moist so probably a fair bit of cloud and accompanied by outbreaks of light rain at times.

This takes us up to the weekend as the low pressure continues east and we await the return to the status quo with the Azores ridging near the UK. Or do we?

Edited March 24, 2017 by knocker

[knocker]

The ecm differs quite markedly from the GFS vis the evolution later next week. It has the high pressure just about hanging in there to the SE so consequently the low pressure is kept further west and in fact never makes it as the Azores nips in once again towards the end. Obviously with these majors differences still ongoing it awaits to be sorted. It should be noted this morning's ecm is a fair way from yesterday evenings as well.

Edited March 24, 2017 by knocker

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z is very easy on the eyes this morning, high pressure and spring warmth and just when it looks like the atlantic might spoil the party, Azores high reinforcements arrive..and the T+240 is an absolute peach..seriously considering our first BBQ

Plenty of warm spring sunshine to come.

Edited March 24, 2017 by Frosty.

[jvenge]

34 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Ecm 00z is very easy on the eyes this morning, high pressure and spring warmth and just when it looks like the atlantic might spoil the party, Azores high reinforcements arrive..and the T+240 is an absolute peach..seriously considering our first BBQ

Plenty of warm spring sunshine to come.

Quite stunning!

GEFS suite also very good for much of Europe, especially me!!!, but for the UK temperatures are strugelling to get into the teens out into the latter stages of the run.  

[Frosty.]

Yes it's looking good, especially compared to the recent cool unsettled dross. The ukmo 00z also shows plenty of warm fine weather with sunny spells, a risk of showers in the southwest next tues with a kink in the isobars followed by a general breakdown across the west and north as the atlantic makes inroads but the s / se staying largely fine and warm out to T+144.

Edited March 24, 2017 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

The Gem 00z also looks good until later with high pressure taking centre stage bringing a fine and increasingly warm spell with sunny spells and light winds but with chilly nights although nights become milder next week and the breeze picks up too but it's warm Tm air. The high eventually declines with atlantic low pressure pushing through bringing a cooler oceanic air mass but I get the feeling it would only be a short atlantic phase with further high pressure and warmth to come.

Edited March 24, 2017 by Frosty.

[Man With Beard]

On 3/21/2017 at 13:35, Man With Beard said:

Haven't been checking ECM monthlies for a few weeks - I didn't find them particularly useful after D15 during winter - but now I'm interested to see how they will perform in spring/summer. The start of April could be a corker if last night's is close to the mark:

  

  

Between March 27th and April 10th, ridging close by and uppers 2C or more above normal for a large part of the UK.

D7-D14 was pretty much the same the week before, D14-D21 is a marked change from the previous week which had no signal.

Now the thread is a bit quieter, it's a bit easier to refer back to previous posts to test continuity. Here is last night's ECM monthly for the same period (now D4-D10 / D11-D18).  

  

  

Continuity just about acceptable, I'd argue. 

[knocker]

It's been gloomy and overcast here today but tomorrow is looking better and Sidney might need some factor 20 Sunday looking quite possible as well

After this not much change to report with the Atlantic trough edging east by mid week and bringing more unsettled weather albeit temps well on the up.

EDIT

I've just noticed I posted the wrong chart. Meant to be mid week when the fronts are approaching Ireland.

Edited March 24, 2017 by knocker

[Frosty.]

Well it's been sunny across most of the uk today and tomorrow looks pleasantly warm and sunny too under a strong anticyclone. Sunday and early next week also look fine with some sunshine but with more clouds around, especially in the east but still pleasant enough inland but the coming nights look chilly with a touch of frost.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z is more progressive than the 00z with the atlantic pushing through later next week but before and after it looks fine with high pressure in control with some pleasant sunshine to enjoy, especially tomorrow with the fine and warm weather lasting longest towards the southeast next week.

Edited March 24, 2017 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

The Gem 12z is looking good for the next 3 days or so pretty much nationwide with warm fine days and sunny spells followed by chilly nights with slight frosts where skies clear. Next tuesday there is a bit of a hiccup and then the best weather is towards the southeast with the n / w becoming unsettled, eventually later next week we all very briefly see atlantic weather pushing through but then quickly followed by a high pressure reboot across southern uk at least.

Edited March 24, 2017 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

Looking at ECM it's a generally mild run with any chiller air limited to a day or 2

[Winter Cold]

Whilst its quiet and comic relief night.... did anyone else notice that the T240 ECM 850s chart tonight looks just like @knocker squirrel Sidney!!

 

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, Winter Cold said:

Whilst its quiet and comic relief night.... did anyone else notice that the T240 ECM 850s chart tonight looks just like @knocker squirrel Sidney!!

 

Sidney will love it tomorrow, unbroken sunshine and some inland parts hitting 16c..tomorrow looks a cracker..

Edited March 24, 2017 by Frosty.

[Winter Cold]

11 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Sidney will love it tomorrow, unbroken sunshine and some inland parts hitting 16c..tomorrow looks a cracker..

Yes Frosty, tomorrow looks like a stunner, warm sunshine and will feel very pleasant indeed

[Frosty.]

Yes tomorrow looks a stunner, just saw BBC weather and it shows clear sunny skies tomorrow but this is what the Gfs 12z shows..what a load of tosh!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Yes tomorrow looks a stunner, just saw BBC weather and it shows clear sunny skies tomorrow but this is what the Gfs 12z shows..what a load of tosh!

cannot say 'tosh' yet, not happened, cloud probably overdone, but the setup is perfect for north sea misty low cloud, to hang around in Staffs and Shrops

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

cannot say 'tosh' yet, not happened, cloud probably overdone, but the setup is perfect for north sea misty low cloud, to hang around in Staffs and Shrops

Well it's completely different to the charts I saw on tv, not a cloud in the sky tomorrow just about nationwide..more cloud around and sunday but clear and sunny in the west.

Edited March 24, 2017 by Frosty.