Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17

[Sky Full]

Looking ahead to the end of the month the GFS has the Azores high pressure once again building across the UK and in later frames this becomes even more centred over us:

Maintaining a more pessimistic view the ECM shows a more dominant Atlantic low pressure forcing the warmer weather further south into Iberia and bringing stronger, cooler, south westerlies towards the UK.  This would not be the best start to April:

As usual this could go either way and I will be watching with interest to see which model gets it right.....

[Frosty.]

High pressure upgrades this morning with the high not as far west and starting to drift east further ahead..bodes well for a very pleasant spell..what's not to like? the grotty atlantic won't be a problem soon.

[Man With Beard]

54 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

Looking ahead to the end of the month the GFS has the Azores high pressure once again building across the UK and in later frames this becomes even more centred over us:

Maintaining a more pessimistic view the ECM shows a more dominant Atlantic low pressure forcing the warmer weather further south into Iberia and bringing stronger, cooler, south westerlies towards the UK.  This would not be the best start to April:

As usual this could go either way and I will be watching with interest to see which model gets it right.....

The op runs of this morning are well backed up by the ensembles

  

Studying the GEFS clusters, most are keen on the trough just to the S or SW of Iceland, so the mean is pretty representative. What the mean filters out of course is micro-scale activity between the main troughs/ridges, and so I'm guessing there is room on the ECM mean for more troughs to pass to our south keeping out the warmer SWly winds, or on the other hand locking us into a ridge based in the N Sea which may produce reasonable continental based weather (and a better prognosis for northern areas)

But the form horse for the end of the month is - troughing mainly affecting NW areas but mostly mild - drier and at times warm to the SE though passing fronts/secondary lows reaching here too from time to time. 

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z is a beauty, especially further south with high pressure largely dominating from friday onwards and a big diurnal temperature contrast between daily max and nightly min with pleasantly warm days and chilly nights with slight frosts and fog patches..eventually a bit more unsettled across the n / nw but for many it's looking good with temps close to 70F by the end.

 

Edited March 21, 2017 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

Peachy GEFS 6z mean, pretty much wall to wall high pressure from this Friday onwards and some very pleasant daytime maxima in the strengthening late march / early april sunshine but gardeners beware as there would be some chilly nights with frost around and some mist / fog patches but you couldn't ask for a better looking mean if you like fine calm weather.

Edited March 21, 2017 by Frosty.

[Man With Beard]

Haven't been checking ECM monthlies for a few weeks - I didn't find them particularly useful after D15 during winter - but now I'm interested to see how they will perform in spring/summer. The start of April could be a corker if last night's is close to the mark:

  

  

Between March 27th and April 10th, ridging close by and uppers 2C or more above normal for a large part of the UK.

D7-D14 was pretty much the same the week before, D14-D21 is a marked change from the previous week which had no signal.

[Frosty.]

I'm surprised it's so quiet in here, some beautiful looking charts showing perfect spring weather and a welcome absence of Atlantic dross.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

40 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I'm surprised it's so quiet in here, some beautiful looking charts showing perfect spring weather and a welcome absence of Atlantic dross.

My favourite Frosty!

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

I'm surprised it's so quiet in here, some beautiful looking charts showing perfect spring weather and a welcome absence of Atlantic dross.

Maybe a lot of people realise what has tended to follow settled/warm March and Aprils in recent years!

One does get the impression we're going to face an extended spell of very wet weather at some point after this repeating Azores HP led pattern which has been in control for months and months. I just hope it breaks over the summer/autumn rather than ruining another winter next year!

Edited March 21, 2017 by CreweCold

[weatherguru14]

19 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Maybe a lot of people realise what has tended to follow settled/warm March and Aprils in recent years!

One does get the impression we're going to face an extended spell of very wet weather at some point after this repeating Azores HP led pattern which has been in control for months and months. I just hope it breaks over the summer/autumn rather than ruining another winter next year!

One does get the impression???  we do not know what is going happen in the summer.The charts are showing fine weather approaching.. I know your sadistic  personality can't handle that.. But who cares about that.

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, weatherguru14 said:

 I know your sadistic  personality can't handle that.. But who cares about that.

That's a bit strong, let's keep it friendly.

The models show a lovely spell on the way, we should be happy.

Edited March 21, 2017 by Frosty.

[knocker]

23 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

That's a bit strong, let's keep it friendly.

The models show a lovely spell on the way, we should be happy.

Having just popped in I'm totally confused, When did happiness in here suddenly equate to 'a lovely spell'. Unbridled joy in here normally erupts with the possibility of brutal cold and the thought of untold misery for the elderly such as myself.

[Frosty.]

According to the Gfs 12z next week looks very mild indeed with temps into the 60's F with a lot of fine sunny weather, not completely dry, this run shows some showers around for a time but very decent conditions. In the meantime, from friday high pressure takes charge with mild bright days and rather chilly nights with ground frosts but next week the night's become less cold and the days become warmer with more of a southerly flow. 

Edited March 21, 2017 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

Very nice ukmo 12z with high pressure building in and becoming centred over the uk and intensifying..set fair

Edited March 21, 2017 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

The Gem 12z also becomes set fair with high pressure becoming dominant and turning milder by day but with chilly nights, however, during next week the uk becomes bathed in much milder air as the high migrates further east and winds become more Sly / SWly, high pressure slowly drifts away ESE later next week but the s / e remain predominantly fine and warm but gradually turning more unsettled across the far  n & w but for most of the uk it's looking very pleasant soon.

Edited March 21, 2017 by Frosty.

[cheese]

3 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Maybe a lot of people realise what has tended to follow settled/warm March and Aprils in recent years!

One does get the impression we're going to face an extended spell of very wet weather at some point after this repeating Azores HP led pattern which has been in control for months and months. I just hope it breaks over the summer/autumn rather than ruining another winter next year!

Well, let's not get ahead of ourselves - at the moment we are looking at a settled period with temps largely in the mid-high teens, but it is not unusual at all get a period of weather like that in April. Nor is it unusual to get one or two days above 20C.

There is no April 2011 or April 2007 repeat on the cards.

Edited March 21, 2017 by cheese

[Frosty.]

Well the Ecm 12z shows the high further NW with cooler air again feeding in across the SE and eventually the eastern half of the uk..nothing like the 00z in terms of high pressure positioning..more runs needed!

Edited March 21, 2017 by Frosty.

[cheeky_monkey]

52 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Gem 12z also becomes set fair with high pressure becoming dominant and turning milder by day but with chilly nights, however, during next week the uk becomes bathed in much milder air as the high migrates further east and winds become more Sly / SWly, high pressure slowly drifts away ESE later next week but the s / e remain predominantly fine and warm but gradually turning more unsettled across the far  n & w but for most of the uk it's looking very pleasant soon.

can you give the rest of us in the N.Hempshere a piece of high pressure..you have been hogging it for months now 

[Scorcher]

That is a rubbish run from the ECM which has again gone back to what it was showing last night. Only the far north and west would do well out the setup it shows for the weekend and beyond in terms of sunshine and warm temperatures. 

However, even in that setup, the retrogression of that high is going to be stopped by that deep low to the south of Greenland, meaning eventually we would probably get the high in a more favourable position.

[Atmogenic]

1 minute ago, cheeky_monkey said:

can you give the rest of us in the N.Hempshere a piece of high pressure..you have been hogging it for months now 

But you've been hogging all the snow for years 

[cheeky_monkey]

Just now, Atmogenic said:

But you've been hogging all the snow for years 

im sick to death of snow..its rapidly become my least favourtie weather type..not sure why people are obsessed on here with the stuff..but the weather here sucks right now and no sign of any HP in the next 2 weeks either.

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, cheeky_monkey said:

im sick to death of snow..its rapidly become my least favourtie weather type..

Maybe you should move to a country with warmer winters..like the uk

Anyway, no sympathy from me, I hope our upcoming settled spell lasts a good while.

[cheeky_monkey]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Maybe you should move to a country with warmer winters..like the uk

Anyway, no sympathy from me, I hope our upcoming settled spell lasts a good while.

don't get me wrong i can deal with winter and the cold...i just really dislike Canadian springs they are usually cold/cool and miserable where i am and looking like this one will be no different

[I remember Atlantic 252]

7 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

im sick to death of snow..its rapidly become my least favourtie weather type..not sure why people are obsessed on here with the stuff..but the weather here sucks right now and no sign of any HP in the next 2 weeks either.

If you lived in the UK you'd understand, here snow is getting rarer as years go on, and a novelty more so now

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

If you lived in the UK you'd understand, here snow is getting rarer as years go on, and a novelty more so now

True, the only snow some of us see is on a Christmas card!! Anyway, good weather ahead from Friday onwards, just the position of the high to nail down regarding how next weeks surface conditions will feel but hopefully it will work out favourably in terms of spring warmth and sunshine.

Edited March 21, 2017 by Frosty.