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Nick F

Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards

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Without wanting to be a pessimistic, unless that French lot explodes laterally, on current trajectory it's going to miss even me and I'm about as far SE as is possible to be 

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Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 28 May 2017 - 05:59 UTC Mon 29 May 2017

ISSUED 20:20 UTC Sun 28 May 2017

ISSUED BY: Chris/Dan

UPDATE 2020 UTC

Latest observational analysis depicts expanding MCS over northern France, this captured reasonably well by some model guidance and expected to be advected NE-wards into S/SE England and parts of East Anglia, though weakening with time late in the night. MDT therefore expanded eastwards to cater for this forecast evolution.

Further pulses of elevated convection are likely on the western periphery of destabilising plume from Lyme Bay across the Midlands to Lincolnshire, but given more marginal instability here it is questionable how widespread lightning activity will be, hence a downgrade to SLGT for now.

UPDATE 1445 UTC Main emphasis shifted a little further west due to model trends

Upper trough approaching Iberia will advect a plume of high ThetaW air northwards across southern Britain through the course of Sunday evening and overnight into Monday. Destabilisation of this plume is expected, with upper forcing combining with isentropic upglide to allow areas of elevated thunderstorms to develop and expand in coverage - at least for a time - before general weakening/reducing trend is anticipated later in the night. 

Current thinking is activity will develop around the 19-22z timeframe over the English Channel / Channel Islands / SW England, growing upscale as the whole area of potential shifts NE-wards through the night. Steep mid-level lapse rates and reasonable CAPE suggests lightning will be notably frequent with any thunderstorms, especially farther east where such parameters will be more favourable.

As is often the case in such situations, there is some uncertainty as to the exact forecast evolution and position of areas most likely to experience thunderstorms - as such, the exact position of the SLGT/MDT is subject to some alterations. Some hail and strong gusts of wind will be possible with some of this convective activity.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-05-28

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2 minutes ago, SouthernSun said:

The mcs has split, the SE quadrant is winning and is probably still gaining benefit from the warm land mass. This will move ENE into Sussex/Kent. Outflow from the weakening western portion may aid growth of storms to its north and west. 

You can See in fading sat image an overshooting top on SE quadrant .

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Have just read the cells in the western channel are propating more northerly, clearly good news, however that trajectory takes them outside the main axis of the plume which is clearly very bad news.

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2 minutes ago, Tom Jarvis said:

Can u post pic

on my mates mac book i have no idea how! lol 

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Looking forward to tonight's possible show. Currently have https://www.lightningmaps.org/?lang=en#m=sat;r=0;t=3;s=1;o=0;b=;n=0;z=8;d=2;dl=2;dc=0;y=50.4113;x=-1.8158; on in the background with the sound on. I like to set it with the nearest thunderstorms just out of range and then wait until it sets off. Then repeat until the storms are overhead!

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May'be Plymouth will be woken late tonight with Saturday mornings little brother ! :)

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Just now, chionomaniac said:

Looking forward to tonight's possible show. Currently have https://www.lightningmaps.org/?lang=en#m=sat;r=0;t=3;s=1;o=0;b=;n=0;z=8;d=2;dl=2;dc=0;y=50.4113;x=-1.8158; on in the background with the sound on. I like to set it with the nearest thunderstorms just out of range and then wait until it sets off. Then repeat until the storms are overhead!

Do you think we are going to be in luck tonight?

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Looks like this massive storm will clip kent at best. Not shore where these storms pushing north over england tonight are going to come from.

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Following the radar animation, looking more and more like Kent clipper to me.

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1 minute ago, West Sussex Kate said:

Do you think we are going to be in luck tonight?

Nope... I think it will be East Sussex/kent.

 

In other words the usual lol 

 

Might get a good lightning show though 

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we might get some other cells

but not-sure how the atmospheric mechanisms work - but they nearly always shoot up the channel - no idea why

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1 minute ago, Harsh Climate said:

Looks like this massive storm will clip kent at best. Not shore where these storms pushing north over england tonight are going to come from.

 

Just now, tomp456 said:

Nope... I think it will be East Sussex/kent.

 

In other words the usual lol 

 

Might get a good lightning show though 

Agreed, and with new cells exploding in and around Caen area now, even out over the channel. Think the fat lady is warming up for those to the west of the IOW

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Just now, Buckster said:

we might get some other cells

but not-sure how the atmospheric mechanisms work - but they nearly always shoot up the channel - no idea why

Met Office seem to have upped the rain level round our way overnight. But whether that has any lightning associated with it is a different matter.

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look on rain radar heavy rain near south coast dorset.

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Looks more and more like a Kent clipper, seen it all too many times before.  The ppn to the west of the main cluster seems to have lost it's electrical activity.

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It seems to be following the 500hPa wind vectors, rather than the 850hPa

592b341668240_2017-05-28(2).thumb.png.da4ba56006f6aff1e153e4554ef50ae6.png

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Wherever it's going it's going there .... slowwwwllllllyyyyy

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Right one will likley develop into a supercell ,be interesting to hear any reports tomorrow .

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7 minutes ago, West Sussex Kate said:

Do you think we are going to be in luck tonight?

One can never tell, but upper steering winds suggest that any storms will be further inland than just the Kent clipper. and more cells should develop in the next three hours.

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7 minutes ago, poseidon said:

Following the radar animation, looking more and more like Kent clipper to me.

Me too...was hoping to see some storms move in from the West, but at this rate I'll be lucky to see anything but flashes at this rate (which to be fair I'll take) 

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4 hours ago, tomp456 said:

Let's hope this verifies. 

I think this is pretty much what we will see tonight, so yes Lyme bay eastwards are the best areas to be in my opinion. 

The below surface pressure chart by the Met Office shows where the trough is positioned later tonight, which is moving in a NE direction. This is where I expect to see the storms. A fair amount more of a NE trajectory than what was showing just yesterday by some models. Difficult beasts to forecast.

Untitled.thumb.jpg.0cfb9cbd9408a4d6c88ae840fab7da14.jpg

 

Edited by Chris K

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