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Nick F

Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards

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Interesting looking cell to my East, seems to be a decent inflow too. Will update with pictures when have better view.

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4 minutes ago, tomdewey said:

It looks Like under a blanket 

I couldn't think of a description! Was just looking out at our skies which are showing definite signs of instability and my duvet when all the kids are under it sprung to mind!!

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Something like what's over northern France at the moment wouldn't be bad. Around 100 strikes a minute in one storm. 

Edited by matt111

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It's kind of interesting that the Met Office seem to think the main risk of downpours is east of Devon/Cornwall, yet the Euro4 12z improves again for us
17052900_2812.gif17052903_2812.gif17052906_2812.gif

Of course, the potential for the most intense activity is the central or SE area with higher CAPE etc, but I think that further west stuff would still contain some thunderstorms (not just general rain/thundery rain) as MUCAPE values are still decent (though disappointingly GFS keeps downgrading this slightly...)

In addition the satellite image looks encouraging just west of Brittany, though the lightning detector doesn't yet.

However many models aren't so encouraging this far west. Maybe I'll stay put, as it might be more gutting to miss a good storm here than miss a good storm 1-2 hours to my east.. but I don't know. It sure makes it hard to decide, big gamble either way.

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1 hour ago, SteveB said:

Seeing the BBC forecast, seems most the action appears over to the East, some thundery activity moving up over to the West, but all in all, a bit underwhelming forecast with no emphasis on anything severe.

We shall see I guess - and not that long to go either! 

The BBC forecasters are terrible for understating. While severe weather sites are predicting MCS's, the Beeb talk about "thundery showers". Then the next day they say: "Well, that was unexpected!"

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I have for gotten what type  of cloud this is 

14959963915181552502485.jpg

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4 minutes ago, tomdewey said:

I have for gotten what type  of cloud this is 

14959963915181552502485.jpg

Isn't that Carol Kirkwood's favourite type of cloud? The Cow Udder ones. In relation to the BBC/Metoffice forecasts, they always underestimate storms.

Edited by RichmondWeather

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Out on the Norfolk broads at the moment. Hoping for something! 

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As anticipated, clear skies prevail here. Glorious evening. Fingers crossed the incoming plume detonates about 10-20 miles to our south and tracks right overhead :D naturally hoping it's a widespread eruption so everyone can enjoy the storms (you watch, every bugger but me will be rejoicing in electric displays lol)

 

IMG_1105.JPG

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3 minutes ago, John Hodgson said:

Out on the Norfolk broads at the moment. Hoping for something! 

depend on some weather models you might well see something

Edited by Gordon Webb
deleted joke

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2 minutes ago, Harry said:

As anticipated, clear skies prevail here. Glorious evening. Fingers crossed the incoming plume detonates about 10-20 miles to our south and tracks right overhead :D naturally hoping it's a widespread eruption so everyone can enjoy the storms (you watch, every bugger but me will be rejoicing in electric displays lol)

 

IMG_1105.JPG

Can't get over the storns over Northern France how quickly they went up! 

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Nice anvil passing over this location atm. Spreading out at the top. 

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I'm just hoping we get something in North Yorkshire for the early hours but I think we're a little too far North lol. Even if we are in the yellow warning area

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1 minute ago, Surrey said:

Can't get over the storns over Northern France how quickly they went up! 

Exactly what I was just about to post - going bonkers over NW France right now...the northern edge of the plume I would suggest. It should strat erupting eastwards as it drifts north (fingers crossed) 

IMG_1106.PNG

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Just got home from visiting in Norfolk, had a quick moderate shower just north of Ipswich (the same one the hit home earlier on!), and driving down the A12 about half an hour ago, there was some heavy rain off to the West that bought with it some lovely cloudscapes. All eyes on the channel now, feeling pretty humid out there...

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So is this what we're all after tonight?:clapping:

IMG_0410.PNG

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Here's some projected rainfall totals. Although, they could be more localised than it is showing.

viewimage.thumb.png.7f4e7760ba082bb0d834e415147aff89.png

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Just now, Mapantz said:

Here's some projected rainfall totals. Although, they could be more localised than it is showing.

viewimage.thumb.png.7f4e7760ba082bb0d834e415147aff89.png

Puts both of us right under some of the heaviest rainfall by the looks of it.  

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2 minutes ago, Harry said:

 

Exactly what I was just about to post - going bonkers over NW France right now...the northern edge of the plume I would suggest. It should strat erupting eastwards as it drifts north (fingers crossed) 

IMG_1106.PNG

Hi Harry,

I'm guessing it'll have a more North East direction as it hits the channel per usual.  I'm in the coast in Bognor this weekend looking out over the sea. Will try post updates!

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1 minute ago, Robbie Garrett said:

Hi Harry,

I'm guessing it'll have a more North East direction as it hits the channel per usual.  I'm in the coast in Bognor this weekend looking out over the sea. Will try post updates!

Would you say there is a chance for North York Moors, Pickering area in the early hours?

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