Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards

[Gordon Webb]

5 minutes ago, Wet'n'Dry said:

Is anyone having problems with raintoday? I keep getting errors on phone and PC, something to do with Google maps not loading properly.

 

just tried it getting the same error and it's not a browser issue tried it with firefox , Internet Explorer (no laughing please) and microsoft edge

Edited May 28, 2017 by Gordon Webb

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Just now, cheese said:

I've had those problems for ages now. Thought it was just me.

I get that problem whenever there is sferics... but usually it works fine otherwise. Maybe a link?

[Wet'n'Dry]

Maybe they don't have the bandwidth to stream to all users, it only happens during peak periods such as we have today

 

[tomp456]

3 minutes ago, Harry said:

Yes I hope it does because I'm BANG in the right place (pardon the punne)

It won't though. 

I think everywhere else including Netweather is saying the main stuff is going to be more westwards 

[Gordon Webb]

perhaps google having trouble tracking all our locations

[Gordon Webb]

1 minute ago, tomp456 said:

It won't though. 

I think everywhere else including Netweather is saying the main stuff is going to be more westwards 

not the first time the majority have been wrong but it does look out of step I grant you

[matt111]

Any of that lot over northern France and the Channel Islands heading this way? 

[Harry]

As a pre-warning (not wanting to be doom and gloom), do not sit tight if you're in an area not modelled to be under decent instability. If one thing has become clear to me over the past years, even if precip is expected to break out, the sparks will follow the instability. I've sat countless times under torrential rain with no sparks (with models showing me outside of decent CAPE). If you're under a yellows and reds on the CAPE charts (and it rains) game on!!

 

 

 

[Mapantz]

2 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Any of that lot over northern France and the Channel Islands heading this way? 

Yap! 

[Harry]

1 minute ago, matt111 said:

Any of that lot over northern France and the Channel Islands heading this way? 

Irrelevant, whatever is going to bring the goods will erupt at least 3-4 hours from now

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Bloody hell.. 

If anything does go bang there is some serious juice to tap into this is the 12z also 

 

[Southern Storm]

1 minute ago, Harry said:

Irrelevant, whatever is going to bring the goods will erupt at least 3-4 hours from now

Yes, estofex forecast goes for a weakening of the storms currently over Northwest France once they hit the channel, with the main event not due until around 11pm onwards. 

[Gordon Webb]

GFS precipitation forecasts for evening and overnight

[Rob Walker]

Suns come back out here for last 10 mins (and across south coastal counties east of here by looks of it) after the odd touch of light rain spits for the last couple of hours with that band of leftovers that moved up from the channel. Feels very muggy here but not going to get too enthused until later on once the plume destabilises; Not liking the amount of uncertainty between forecasts at the moment so will check back later to see where things are looking favourable.

[A.J]

8 minutes ago, Harry said:

Irrelevant, whatever is going to bring the goods will erupt at least 3-4 hours from now

agreed, what we'll in all likelyhood see is for cells to develop rapidly over the northern English channel over the south coast and directly inland from the south coast......This reminds me of a setup from 3 years, when around 10pm all was quiet which patchy drizzle from Ac-Cas over southernmost counties and within 30 minutes said Ac Cas erupted into numerous elevated storms

Edited May 28, 2017 by ajpoolshark

[Buckster]

after being pessimistic all day yesterday - I'm not at all convinced with the predictions of it shunting west

I still the East and South East is going to be where the party is overnight

[A.J]

1 minute ago, Buckster said:

after being pessimistic all day yesterday - I'm not at all convinced with the predictions of it shunting west

I still the East and South East is going to be where the party is overnight

if anything the gfs12z (taken with a large pinch of salt) keeps most activity to a Kent clipper with most instability staying over on the continent..........hmm

[SteveB]

Seeing the BBC forecast, seems most the action appears over to the East, some thundery activity moving up over to the West, but all in all, a bit underwhelming forecast with no emphasis on anything severe.

We shall see I guess - and not that long to go either! 

[Gordon Webb]

1 minute ago, ajpoolshark said:

if anything the gfs12z (taken with a large pinch of salt) keeps most activity to a Kent clipper with most instability staying over on the continent..........hmm

just what was needed another cook to come in and stir the broth

[Mapantz]

 

1 minute ago, ajpoolshark said:

if anything the gfs12z (taken with a large pinch of salt) keeps most activity to a Kent clipper with most instability staying over on the continent..........hmm

In this situation, lets refer to the NetWx 18Z from Friday. 

[A.J]

Just now, Gordon Webb said:

just what was needed another cook to come in and stir the broth

??

Just now, Mapantz said:

 

In this situation, lets refer to the NetWx 18Z from Friday. 

jeez, what a shocker that was!

[Raidan]

What a night Friday into Saturday but tonight I'm gonna go to bed at a reasonable time as I don't see anything thundery tonight in these parts 

[sunnijim]

2 minutes ago, Buckster said:

after being pessimistic all day yesterday - I'm not at all convinced with the predictions of it shunting west

I still the East and South East is going to be where the party is overnight

Agree with that, some wishful thinking from some perhaps ;-) The best 'juice' is showing yet again for South eastern coastal counties, so if anything can fire this far east it is where the severity will be.More like thundery rain further West perhaps? So not a bit of wishful thinking imbysm from me there either!

[Wilxy]

I got a headache so many different forecasts I have no idea where to go, some saying its going to be a kent clipper others saying it will be further west going to be a nowcast for now on!

[Gordon Webb]

1 minute ago, ajpoolshark said:

??

jeez, what a shocker that was!

I was referring to another possible outcome perhaps this will convey what i was trying to say

too many cooks spoil the broth

Too many persons involved in managing an activity can ruin it, as in Without a conductor, every player had an idea for how the music should go-too many cooks spoil the broth . This expression alludes to each of many cooks adding something to a soup, which finally tastes awful.

take weather model for person and you should get the idea