Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards

[Dami]

yep was going to say the lightning map i was looking at reported some flashes. 

[Thunderstruck]

Storm at home right now, guess where I'm not

[Gordon Webb]

seems to be the one in the band of rain that's tried to persist all day by the looks of it

[Wet'n'Dry]

2 strikes within 500 metres of my house and another half dozen within a mile, I can still hear the storm rumbling as it moves off to my N/E

Edit: Should that be yards and miles or metres and kilometres 

Edited May 28, 2017 by Wet'n'Dry

[tomp456]

Let's hope this verifies. 

Edited May 28, 2017 by tomp456

[Thunderstruck]

Been visiting in Norfolk all day, will take about 2 hours to get home. Hopefully might bump into the storm on the way back home, before all the main stuff later

[Swindon Man]

Was hoping for something in Swindon this afternoon but all we got was a couple of spits - hope for better later on!

[Southern Storm]

23 minutes ago, Karl83 said:

Cameras all charged up and ready for action! Just need to find a decent spot to set up and then hope for the best.

 

Any decent view points around the M4 corridor area that anyone can recommend? 

Don't ask me lol, I go to almost the same spot every time, it has served me well, but almost every lightning shot I have is the same, it makes me feel safer knowing people are around for some reason, when in fact it's probably more safe without people, good luck for tonight, and with any luck, we'll have some nice pictures the share.

Edited May 28, 2017 by Christchurch storm nut

[Gordon Webb]

6 minutes ago, tomp456 said:

Let's hope this verifies. 

If that verifies everyone from the E Midlands westwards will be cursing every weather model from here to eternity

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Just heard a deep old rumble of thunder just then.. 

[Frosty hollows]

1 hour ago, Supacell said:

As has been stated previously, storms tonight are not rooted to the boundary layer but rather an elevated plume and so any cloud, rain or cold sea temperatures are going to have no effect on them. It also won't feel that humid until after the intial mess has moved through as this is the warm front on the northern edge of the humid plume. Having said that it does feel humid here with dewpoints of 13c. The question is where any storms are likely to be and just how widespread.

This afternoon the estofex forecast read like this:

"Thunderstorms weaken offshore over the English Channel with cooler LL air while crossing a sharp E-W aligned CAPE gradient. CI will be more isolated in nature, although upscale growing convection can't be ruled out with one or two clusters affecting the English Channel until sunset."

This is what we are seeing, with a weakening of thunderstorm activity as planned.

For tonight Estofex has:

"Confidence in more widespread CI increases during the night with the development of a diffuse/weak LL vortex over the W-English Channel in response to the approaching upper trough. This vortex pushes a wavy front east and a cluster of organized thunderstorms is forecast to evolve over NW-France and/or SW-UK. Forecast soundings reveal more elevated convection with MUCAPE of 1 kJ/kg and 20 m/s DLS. Also, 0-3 km shear increases to 15-20 m/s over far S-UK. Expect thunderstorms to grow upscale into a cluster of storms while crossing S-UK from WSW to ENE. Large hail will be the main risk. However, given amount of 0-3 km shear and persistent influx of moist/warm air from the S, a severe wind gust theat with a rapidly eastbound moving bowing line is possible. Weak mid-level height falls and the quasi-stationary nature of the evolving LL vortex over the W-English Channel lower the chance for a forced line of convection but indicate more of an internally organized (cold pool driven) event. Hence, the final outcome of that event depends on mesoscale impacts and nowcasting of the front's placement during the night and remains somewhat uncertain right now."

In other words the confidence grows that there will be elevated thunderstorms overnight over the Channel and push ENE and they will likely form into an MCS. The uncertainty is where they will form and this means it is not certain yet who will get them. Where they do occur it looks interesting

What's an LL vortex?

[A.J]

1 minute ago, Frosty hollows said:

What's an LL vortex?

surface low pressure

[Tom Jarvis]

Sun out again in the south east 

[Frosty hollows]

1 minute ago, ajpoolshark said:

surface low pressure

Thanks!

[Rob Walker]

35 minutes ago, Sparkiee storm said:

Yeah Bournemouth lit up like a christmas tree, incredible lightning rate with that storm, as it moved north it lost some of its immensity but still a good storm as the skirted us here in the West Midlands 

Got a text from my cousin in bournemouth about that he was walking home at the time!
Still was intense as it moved up through salisbury and started its expansion east; monsoon like rain with incredible spray being lit up by very frequent sheet lightning and some cg thrown in for good measure. Had a hell of a gust on the rear flank of the storm nearly blew some of the fence over! My mum (over the otherside of salisbury) text me asking if there was a tornado in it haha.
I would love to see a few more storms like that one and the one that happened down plymouth way early sat morn over the come summer/years.

[Wilxy]

Looks like I'll be chasing tonight as I have a gut feeling most of the action will be further east just not sure where the best place to go any recommendations? 

[Sparkiee storm]

2 minutes ago, Rob Walker said:

Got a text from my cousin in bournemouth about that he was walking home at the time!
Still was intense as it moved up through salisbury and started its expansion east; monsoon like rain with incredible spray being lit up by very frequent sheet lightning and some cg thrown in for good measure. Had a hell of a gust on the rear flank of the storm nearly blew some of the fence over! My mum (over the otherside of salisbury) text me asking if there was a tornado in it haha.
I would love to see a few more storms like that one and the one that happened down plymouth way early sat morn over the come summer/years.

Wish I could've been there to experience that.

[Rob Walker]

4 minutes ago, Sparkiee storm said:

Wish I could've been there to experience that.

I'm sure with more of these hot weather blasts over the uk past few years and higher frequency of intense storms your chance will come soon
 Failing that get ready to chase some storms haha!

(Unfortunately I can't drive due to health reasons) so was incredibly chuffed I experienced it at home!... otherwise I'd probably end up chasing most set-ups haha!

... problem is now i'm hooked!

Edited May 28, 2017 by Rob Walker

[Karl83]

10 minutes ago, tomjwlx said:

Looks like I'll be chasing tonight as I have a gut feeling most of the action will be further east just not sure where the best place to go any recommendations? 

@MrNooomentioned Marlborough Downs or Cotswold Edge. Think I'll head to the Cotswolds and see how things pan out.

[Polar Maritime]

Cloud 'slowly' starting to roll in from the South here now.

Edited May 28, 2017 by Polar Maritime

[Wet'n'Dry]

Is anyone having problems with raintoday? I keep getting errors on phone and PC, something to do with Google maps not loading properly.

 

[Harry]

31 minutes ago, tomp456 said:

Let's hope this verifies. 

Yes I hope it does because I'm BANG in the right place (pardon the punne)

[TJS1998Tom]

How is it looking for North York Moors?

[cheese]

2 minutes ago, Wet'n'Dry said:

Is anyone having problems with raintoday? I keep getting errors on phone and PC, something to do with Google maps not loading properly.

 

I've had those problems for ages now. Thought it was just me.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Landed in UK so in a couple of hours I'll hopefully be ready to rock...