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Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards

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I've my eyes on that swirl mid-way over the Channel and the bit behind it over Le Havre - I reckon fun and games for the S-East with that lot later :) I have a feeling it'll develop nicely

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22 minutes ago, Windblade said:

Thanks for the reassurance guys! Hopefully we'll have a really good night.:smile:

Harry - I'd love to be where you are (sounds like new Romney/Dymchurch - lovely place) ready for tonight, but I'm just too tired. I'm gonna sit and wait and hopefully the storms will come to me. Good luck for later though my friend. Keeping everything crossed for tonight.

Indeed, Dymchurch!! 

Good luck to you too matey - as I said earlier I think I'm not in the best position if models are to be believed, but fingers crossed!

Hope you get better soon!

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The storm activity dropping away so unlikely to be much in the way storms from the first wave. Another batch behind it whether that will survive the journey is another matter. A lack of warmth ahead of the front will also be a factor no doubt. At the moment it's following previous trends with recent yearly storm activity with it dying out being nearly dead when it hops across the channel.

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precipitation looks severe in part of the weak cell. 
Also interesting to look at charts over the last hour and see new cells growing and others dying,. just not quite hitting the mark for potent thundery weather., 
Lets hope as the day develops our potential increases.

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6 minutes ago, The PIT said:

The storm activity dropping away so unlikely to be much in the way storms from the first wave. Another batch behind it whether that will survive the journey is another matter. A lack of warmth ahead of the front will also be a factor no doubt. At the moment it's following previous trends with recent yearly storm activity with it dying out being nearly dead when it hops across the channel.

I think we're too far north tonight. I think it'll be the classic fizzle out situation as the energy from the destabilised plume wanes away. Looks good for southern counties though. 

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Cloud has clearer here now with warm sunshine breaking through.

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14 minutes ago, CAPE-steve said:

I think we're too far north tonight. I think it'll be the classic fizzle out situation as the energy from the destabilised plume wanes away. Looks good for southern counties though. 

you might be right about that

this little bit taken from convective weather

Upper trough approaching Iberia will advect a plume of high ThetaW air northwards across southern Britain through the course of Sunday evening and overnight into Monday. Destabilisation of this plume is expected, with upper forcing combining with isentropic upglide to allow areas of elevated thunderstorms to develop and expand in coverage - at least for a time - before general weakening/reducing trend is anticipated later in the night. 

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It has start to rain from this cloud but no thunder yet tho

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Nearly dead now lightning wise. I feel another dead duck coming on.

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1 minute ago, The PIT said:

Nearly dead now lightning wise. I feel another dead duck coming on.

See AJ's post PIT. Patience, grasshopper. Though it'll likely be a dead duck for our area, if that's what you're referring to.

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27 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

remember the forecasts folks, tonight's storms will be a result of elevated convection....the english channel/sea temps will have absolutely no bearing on these storms.....things to look for are steepening lapse rates in the mid-levels aided by nocturnal cooling in conjunction with an ever increasingly unstable theta air mass

Where do we track these parameters please?

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Latest Met Office forecast looks good for central southern England and parts of the SE for later this evening/tonight. :)

edit: I second @TN26's question!

Edited by CAPE-steve
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LOL another severe weather warning for sunny spells on our local forecast. Trying to remember when he had a decent storm here just missed one by miles last year which north west, north of Sheffield and left me watching it from a distance.

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So far everything is going as planned. 

Starting the day sunny and some great warm temps and clear skies. 

Slowly cloud rolled in and some decaying storms and rain moving north. 

Then we get to the next step.. Which comes after around 9pm tonight 

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So the 00z Euro4 showed things kicking off further east of here, more for central-southern and southeastern areas while the Met Office precipitation forecast map was excellent for me...

Now the 06Z Euro4 shows the heaviest activity west of here and then up through Wales, while the MetO precip map update is rubbish here with thunderstorms in the SE! (BBC graphics different to both of course) :cc_confused:

A lot of uncertainty which makes it hard to know what to think, as I would be prepared to drive 1-2 hours east this evening and find a good vantage point if it looked likely that storms would be impressive within viewing distance, and not much would happen at home.

Anyway Friday night had some very frequent distant lightning, but we were in the gap around Lyme Bay (the less dense strikes there are falsely placed) I did drive towards the storms west of me which was pretty nice, though that's not as good as a strong overhead storm at home with torrential rain

592ac09f3cca7_lightningmaps27thMaythunderstorms.thumb.png.28d50a6be0a125db18f34cc8cfedb213.png 

Tbh I can see us missing them again so we end up pretty much the only place along the south coast to not have a decent storm over this two day period lol.

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Just now, Surrey said:

So far everything is going as planned. 

Starting the day sunny and some great warm temps and clear skies. 

Slowly cloud rolled in and some decaying storms and rain moving north. 

Then we get to the next step.. Which comes after around 9pm tonight 

Did you get much from Yesterday mornings wave Surrey?

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Whatever does occur, is likely to be localised. It's a very messy picture, certainly nothing as widespread as Friday night/Saturday morning, then again, almost all models are howlers when comparing the 15Z to the radar.

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But Wiltshire and Dorset have a yellow weather Waring for heavy thunder downpours and I hope I get a thunder Strom coming from nw France going through to Dorset to me in Warminster in Wiltshire to night 

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1 minute ago, tomdewey said:

But Wiltshire and Dorset have a yellow weather Waring for heavy thunder downpours and I hope I get a thunder Strom coming from nw France going through to Dorset to me in Warminster in Wiltshire to night 

I wouldn't take too much notice of the warning - it's a blanket warning to cover their hiney's.

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1 minute ago, tomdewey said:

But Wiltshire and Dorset have a yellow weather Waring for heavy thunder downpours and I hope I get a thunder Strom coming from nw France going through to Dorset to me in Warminster in Wiltshire to night 

that may be true but the warning also emphasies that really severe weather will only happen in a few places at any one time not the warning area as a whole

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