Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards

[Bolt from the Blue]

Looking towards the South West 

[Gordon Webb]

10 minutes ago, CAPE-steve said:

That's right. Anything that makes it over the channel now is a bit of a bonus really, as the severe potential isn't there, hence the lack of sferic activity at the moment.

All eyes to the channel later as storms are expected to develop later this afternoon/early evening and track NNE as the plume destabilises - 7pm onwards going by expert forecasts

means i can watch Lewis win in monaco if only the other cars in front can somehow run out of fuel

[Tom Jarvis]

22 minutes ago, West Sussex Kate said:

I wish i could get up higher onto the southdowns and have a look out to sea.

I know a nice view looking south on the ashdown forest

[Supacell]

1 minute ago, CAPE-steve said:

Tricky trying to make a decision to travel south, too!  

Definitely. It was the same on Friday night and I decided not to travel. I suppose if the storms are expected to sustain themselves through the night then you could set off when something actually materialises and then be tracking an existing storm rather than trying to estimate if and where one with happen.

[matt111]

Heavy rain here now but no thunder. 

[Norfolk Sheep]

Very milky skies here now and actually feeling very pleasant. Noticeable sun halo too.

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Definitely. It was the same on Friday night and I decided not to travel. I suppose if the storms are expected to sustain themselves through the night then you could set off when something actually materialises and then be tracking an existing storm rather than trying to estimate if and where one with happen.

True. I'm close enough to the M1 too so it's an easy enough trip south, especially in lighter Sunday traffic. Thank goodness for wifi at the motorway services, too! That was a godsend yesterday.

My only worry is the main stuff later stays too far south nr the Kent/SE coasts rather than inland C/S England. Hopefully convectiveweather.co.uk's warnings are accurate

[sparky1972]

Good afternoon all, thought id look here to see if there was anything exciting happening storm wise, dont think there is much risk of a storm forecast for here today or overnight, but i might get the camera ready just incase, current conditions here are cloudy skies with only brief sunny moments, weather station saying temp of 24.5 and humidity of 53%

[Wilxy]

Turning darker to my south!

 

[Windblade]

1 hour ago, Sentinel said:

Hi all, I'm a long-term lurker I've finally decided to sign up.

Can anyone on the south-coast see any cloud build up yet? I'm based in Southend and often sit on the seawall when storms come in as you can see them coming up over the North Downs, the Medway and over the Thames Estuary. Last year we had some fantastic cloud formation preceding one thuderstorms, so I'm hoping for something today.

Welcome.

[Mapantz]

Rain is barely moderate.

[Candice]

19 minutes ago, sparky1972 said:

Good afternoon all, thought id look here to see if there was anything exciting happening storm wise, dont think there is much risk of a storm forecast for here today or overnight, but i might get the camera ready just incase, current conditions here are cloudy skies with only brief sunny moments, weather station saying temp of 24.5 and humidity of 53%

Reckon you're in with a good chance overnight

[Wilxy]

New strikes near bognor regis

[matt111]

Same here apart from a few minutes when it got a bit heavier. Certainly nothing to write home about. 

[Windblade]

That squall line south of dorset/devon seems to have died over the channel. Considering it's well past midday and temps are quite good I would've thought bearing in mind were a few days away from June it would've sucked up even more fuel from the warm moist air over the channel? The fact the opposite seems to have happened has me worried for tonights forecasted french imports now.

Edited May 28, 2017 by Windblade

[Wilxy]

3 minutes ago, Windblade said:

That squall line south of dorser/devon seems to have died over the channel. Considering it's well past midday and temps are quite good I would've thought it would've sucked up even more fuel from the warm moist air over the channel? I The fact the opposite happened has me worried for tonights forecasted french imports now.    

I wouldn't worry yet any storms that do happen never were forecast to come up from France but instead develop either over the channel or near the south coast like what happened Friday night Saturday morning

[Gordon Webb]

1 minute ago, Windblade said:

That squall line south of dorser/devon seems to have died over the channel. Considering it's well past midday and temps are quite good I would've thought it would've sucked up even more fuel from the warm moist air over the channel? I The fact the opposite happened has me worried for tonights forecasted french imports now.    

after rereading extofex they did indicate that daytime stuff for lack of a better word would die die somewhat over the channel don't think that's the term they used but they have more confidence about overnight but every forecast seems to be stressing the uncertainty of developements and even models at this short timeframe don't appear to be in agreement , sorry if this seems incoherent but Lewis Hamilton aint getting anywhere and it's quite irritating

[stainesbloke]

A lot of high level muck here making sunshine very hazy. Feeling warm-ish and not overly humid (currently 22C humidity 52%). Doesn't feel that stormy to me, yet. 

[Harry]

26 minutes ago, CAPE-steve said:

True. I'm close enough to the M1 too so it's an easy enough trip south, especially in lighter Sunday traffic. Thank goodness for wifi at the motorway services, too! That was a godsend yesterday.

My only worry is the main stuff later stays too far south nr the Kent/SE coasts rather than inland C/S England. Hopefully convectiveweather.co.uk's warnings are accurate

Well I've done just that and am at the coast (between Dungeness and Hythe). I'm hoping for the opposite of you and that there's actually an extensive outbreak like the SW saw the other night - an arc from Portsmouth to Dover would good (although kicking off in the Channel so I'm not on he south side).

I saw a gorgeous sun halo earlier too @Norfolk Sheep

[TropicThunder]

Yeah just run of the mill moderate rain here, pretty miserable really and not looking stormy at all. Hopefully better to come later.

[Harry]

4 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

A lot of high level muck here making sunshine very hazy. Feeling warm-ish and not overly humid (currently 22C humidity 52%). Doesn't feel that stormy to me, yet. 

Same here @stainesbloke although the real unstable humid airmass not anticipated until after 21z when it should start (at mid levels at least) spread in from the south.

Reminder for any storm gazers tonight - DO NOT FORGET YOUR INSECT REPELLANT!!!! Especially if like me you're in rural spots - they're out in force already and it's only May 

Edited May 28, 2017 by Harry

[Wilxy]

Does anyone have any fax charts for tonight as the ones on weather online don't seem to work anymore?

[Windblade]

Thanks for the reassurance guys! Hopefully we'll have a really good night.

Harry - I'd love to be where you are (sounds like new Romney/Dymchurch - lovely place) ready for tonight, but I'm just too tired. I'm gonna sit and wait and hopefully the storms will come to me. Good luck for later though my friend. Keeping everything crossed for tonight.

Edited May 28, 2017 by Windblade

[dragon falls]

Hope something happens cancelled our barbecue this evening thinking it was going to be a washout have some explanation for the Mrs other wise.

[stainesbloke]

7 minutes ago, Harry said:

Same here @stainesbloke although the real unstable humid airmass not anticipated until after 21z when it should start (at mid levels at least) spread in from the south.

Reminder for any storm gazers tonight - DO NOT FORGET YOUR INSECT REPELLANT!!!! Especially if like me you're in rural spots - they're out in force already and it's only May 

Great, that ties in with forecasts and charts generally. Humidity should go way up tonight then.