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Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards


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Lovely looking storm this afternoon! 

Here's the one that didn't get away. Taken at Crawley, West Sussex.

All bark but no bite down here on the south coast! 

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Just now, Mapantz said:

Cracking TT's again..

viewimage.thumb.png.9b787be16d0f90b78b667f01b67e1c7c.png

Those PWAT's are high too, so I can understand a risk of localised flooding.

5929fe03acda7_viewimage(1).thumb.png.698475de0463edc18bd545b4132c041d.png

Looking good for the South, I just hope here at North Yorkshire in Pickering we'll get something lol

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4 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Cracking TT's again..

viewimage.thumb.png.9b787be16d0f90b78b667f01b67e1c7c.png

Those PWAT's are high too, so I can understand a risk of localised flooding.

5929fe03acda7_viewimage(1).thumb.png.698475de0463edc18bd545b4132c041d.png

I'm looking forward to some storms, M, but it's the 'pwats' that worry me...Tally Ho!:oops:

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Must say I'm actually more excited for this event than I was for yesterday's. This is very similar evolvement to the 3-4th July 2015 which was a reload like this one after the initial event. 

P.S the 00z FI is an absolute stonker and a half for storm porn. Reload after reload and a massive euro high in total control! 

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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Getting excited about the potential for tonight, especially as here we only got the edge of yesterday morning's storms. Started off cloudy but that is thinning away now and hazy blue sky is revealing itself, hopefully a good sign. Would be nice to take a direct hit this time. Fingers crossed for everyone down south.

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I have a dilemma - I can stay home in NW Kent/SE London or make the 65-70 mile trip to the Kent coast. Gut is telling me the coast (where the highest instability is) yet forecasts seem to be favouring areas further west. Aaaarrrggghhh!

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7 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Must say I'm actually more excited for this event than I was for yesterday's. This is very similar evolvement to the 3-4th July 2015 which was a reload like this one after the initial event. 

P.S the 00z FI is an absolute stonker and a half for storm porn. Reload after reload and a massive euro high in total control! 

If we can get a repeat of this then I would be more than happy. I am unable to chase tonight so reliant on something here.

UK TAF's for the Midlands and Northern England are all forecasting thunderstorms during the early hours of tomorrow. Maybe there is a chance the storm activity can get this far north, the TAF's are normally fairly accurate.

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16 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Must say I'm actually more excited for this event than I was for yesterday's. This is very similar evolvement to the 3-4th July 2015 which was a reload like this one after the initial event. 

P.S the 00z FI is an absolute stonker and a half for storm porn. Reload after reload and a massive euro high in total control! 

Think I'd prefer a re-run of the 17th tbh, that was fabulous (and I only had to drive a mile or so to get to a good vantage point) :D Let's hope there's less transition northwards and more NE....

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17 minutes ago, Norfolk Sheep said:

Think I'd prefer a re-run of the 17th tbh, that was fabulous (and I only had to drive a mile or so to get to a good vantage point) :D Let's hope there's less transition northwards and more NE....

My lord. Now the frequency of that lightning was certainly close to that of the Cornwall storm 2 nights ago. Never seen a show like it. I was too far away to hear the thunder, but saw the train of cb's all along the S, SE and Eastern skyline. It was like a strobe light for 4-5 hours straight with just about every bolt of lightning in the book covered. Very eerie and exciting at the same time. 

 

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54 minutes ago, Harry said:

I have a dilemma - I can stay home in NW Kent/SE London or make the 65-70 mile trip to the Kent coast. Gut is telling me the coast (where the highest instability is) yet forecasts seem to be favouring areas further west. Aaaarrrggghhh!

The instability is set to spread north during the evening to all across the south east some very impressive figuers, but like you say the euro4 favours something further west than Kent but also includes Kent later on 

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Well the forecast has us inline for action overnight whether it happens as we all know is up in the air literately.

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Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 28 May 2017 - 05:59 UTC Mon 29 May 2017

ISSUED 02:04 UTC Sun 28 May 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper trough approaching Iberia will advect a plume of high ThetaW air northwards across southern Britain through the course of Sunday evening and overnight into Monday. Destabilisation of this plume is expected, with upper forcing combining with isentropic upglide to allow areas of elevated thunderstorms to develop and expand in coverage - at least for a time - before general weakening/reducing trend is anticipated later in the night. 

 

Current thinking is activity will develop around the 19-22z timeframe over the English Channel / Channel Islands / SW England, growing upscale as the whole area of potential shifts NE-wards through the night. Steep mid-level lapse rates and reasonable CAPE suggests lightning will be notably frequent with any thunderstorms, especially farther east where such parameters will be more favourable.

As is often the case in such situations, there is some uncertainty as to the exact forecast evolution and position of areas most likely to experience thunderstorms - as such, the exact position of the SLGT/MDT is subject to some alterations. Some hail and strong gusts of wind will be possible with some of this convective activity.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-05-28

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2 hours ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Must say I'm actually more excited for this event than I was for yesterday's. This is very similar evolvement to the 3-4th July 2015 which was a reload like this one after the initial event. 

P.S the 00z FI is an absolute stonker and a half for storm porn. Reload after reload and a massive euro high in total control! 

Some very interesting potential for tonight down here, let's hope something happens to keep us all up for much of the night! Unfortunately the 00Z GFS was a big outlier, but amazing if it actually does come off....

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