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Nick F

Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards

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A lot of flooding around the Middlesbrough area the storm came out of nowhere

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Shows how isolated they are 15 miles or so west we've just had light to moderate rain

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Looks like that it for any heavier showers for us today. They're fading quickly here now

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Nice to see some true bubbly convection going one around here for a change :)

IMG_8843.JPG

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Lots of convection to my north. Radar showing hefty showers both north and south of here, but have completely missed me

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19 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

Lots of convection to my north. Radar showing hefty showers both north and south of here, but have completely missed me

All convective possibilities have faded now. Yet another unsurprising bust for us - not even a heavy shower

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Italy sounds most promising flash.

 

All convection fizzled away earlier, been dry all day. Mainly clear now with a lovely sunset. Plenty of time for storms this year. I'm hopeful it'll be a good one. Lets be honest, it can't possibly be any worse than 2016.

 

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Next week looking really quiet. Hopefully things pick up soon.

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Pressure rising convection hopes have now faded ,looking nice tomorrow for a hike on the fells .

Edited by Mokidugway

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Had a band of heavy rain pass through about 3 hours ago. There was still some towers and anvils dotted around after that had passed, but now it's all fizzled to nothing. 

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1 hour ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Rubbish day really. As usual despite favourable forecasts specifically for our area it was the midlands who got the spoils. Where did it all go so wrong?

I'm not sure about that. I would say the NE had the action today, very little storm action in the Midlands. Infact the Midlands ended up one of the driest areas, not a spot of rain here after the early morning drizzle had cleared.

Edited by Supacell

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 04 Apr 2017 - 05:59 UTC Wed 05 Apr 2017

ISSUED 16:55 UTC Mon 03 Apr 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Brisk westerly flow across northern Scotland on Tuesday, characteristic of a high shear/low CAPE situation. Convective depth generally too shallow for lightning, but as the upper trough sharpens then there may be scope for some sporadic lightning over Shetland late afternoon into the evening. 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-04-04

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 09 Apr 2017 - 05:59 UTC Mon 10 Apr 2017

ISSUED 22:07 UTC Sat 08 Apr 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Approaching upper trough and strong surface heating will help to generate notable CAPE across the East Midlands/The Wash environs during Sunday afternoon. However, forecast profiles look quite dry with a capping inversion at 850mb, which is likely to be hard to overcome. Some high-res NWP, especially earlier on Saturday, were keen to develop one or two isolated thunderstorms over Lincolnshire in particular on Sunday afternoon/early evening, before drifting offshore over the North Sea - however, recent trends continue to decrease this potential. A very marginal LOW threat level has been issued (i.e. near 5-10% chance), if nothing else to highlight the area of interest. Should an isolated cell manage to develop, it would be capable of producing some small hail - though in reality it will likely struggle to grow to sufficient depth given very dry air aloft.

Some post-frontal deep convection is expected over northern Scotland / Northern Isles later on Sunday into Sunday night, but probably lacking in sufficient depth for any notable lightning activity.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-04-09

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So where are all the heavy, thundery, haily (if thats a word) April showers?!! I'm still waiting for my first one? Usually at this time of year they kick the storm season off, but in the south east at least I haven't had a single one all April or seen any towers/meaningful convection. I really hope this isn't a sign of things to come and a repeat of 2016 - the single worst, most lackluster, dire year for storms I've ever witnessed. 

Edited by Windblade

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Incredibly worrying...

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=8105;sess=

 

Does this mean in the future if this technology is adopted on a wider scale there will be no more severe storms? I see the article mentions the reduction of lightning etc.

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 24 Apr 2017 - 05:59 UTC Tue 25 Apr 2017

ISSUED 17:37 UTC Sun 23 Apr 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

On Monday, a sharpening upper trough will slide slowly SE-wards across the British Isles, driving a cold front southwards and eventually introducing an Arctic airmass overnight into Tuesday. Given strong flow aloft along the cold front, some elements of line convection will be possible, albeit in a rather messy fashion and generally lacking in any sufficient depth to be concerned over lightning potential.

However, ahead of the cold front, hints of surface troughing will likely help the development of some low-level convergence on Monday afternoon / early evening, sufficient to generate a few moderately-heavy showers over S/SE England. Overall convective depth is likely to be too shallow for lightning activity, but have issued a low-end LOW threat level to highlight the area with some very marginal potential for isolated lightning activity.

 

Farther north, more significant instability will develop through the evening and overnight as the upper trough and associated cold airmass drives southwards. During the night hours, the most intense convection will be found over seas and hence affecting windward coasts, and here the lightning potential will be greatest (albeit still considered a LOW threat level in any given location). Small hail and gusty winds will be possible with some of these wintry showers (along with the associated risk of snow accumulations, especially on high ground). A few cold air funnels (or brief tornado/waterspout) will also be possible

 

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-04-24

 

 

Day 3 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 25 Apr 2017 - 05:59 UTC Wed 26 Apr 2017

ISSUED 17:44 UTC Sun 23 Apr 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

A rather amplified upper pattern will dominate on Tuesday over the Atlantic and northern Europe, with a longwave trough extending from Scandinavia and across the British Isles. All areas will be under the influence of a cold, Arctic airmass, with frequent showers near windward coasts at first, while most inland locations will be clear to start, but through the day diurnal heating will help generate convection widely inland too, sometimes focussed along distinct bands as shortwave troughs move south in the flow. As a result, a widespread (but relatively low per given location) risk of lightning will exist, along with some small hail and wintry precipitation - especially on hills. A few cold air funnels will be possible also.

 

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-04-25

 

Edited by Stuart

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Day 4 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 26 Apr 2017 - 05:59 UTC Thu 27 Apr 2017

ISSUED 18:00 UTC Sun 23 Apr 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Longwave trough and associated cold airmass by Wednesday will be displaced to the SE, mainly affect just southern and eastern parts of the British Isles. Scattered showers will likely develop more widely through the day in response to diurnal heating, although the coverage (and hence areas affected) will be dependant on how quickly the upper trough clears SE-wards. At this stage, timing differences exist amongst NWP guidance and it is possible the LOW threat area may need adjusting nearer the time.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-04-26

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Extremely dark here about 6pm. Could've sworn I heard a rumble to my north east, but was driving at the time so difficult to tell for sure.

Edited by Windblade

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