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Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards


Nick F

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
10 minutes ago, Convective said:

Bearing in mind that the lightning detectors don't pick up IC or CC lightning, that's a fair amount of CG lightning for a cell that size!

What are the percentages of -cg,+cg,-ic and +ic in a storm or does it vary?

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
7 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

What are the percentages of -cg,+cg,-ic and +ic in a storm or does it vary?

 

I would guesstimate <5% +CG, <5% +IC, <20% -CG with the remainder -IC

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Posted
  • Location: Llandysul, Wales SA44 SA39 550 ft work 650 ft sleep 7.5 shrivelled sheep. Never mind the borax. Spatulas/spoons from just 7 quid, chopping boards from 18 quid, boxes from 45 quid or so for a OK one, bigger stuff costs more obviously
  • Location: Llandysul, Wales SA44 SA39 550 ft work 650 ft sleep 7.5 shrivelled sheep. Never mind the borax. Spatulas/spoons from just 7 quid, chopping boards from 18 quid, boxes from 45 quid or so for a OK one, bigger stuff costs more obviously
26 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Question is should I shut or leave open the velux 

windows tonight :fool:

Ball lightning could rollin and upset the mechanism rendering them always open, that would be my worry.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
1 minute ago, Harry said:

I would guesstimate <5% +CG, <5% +IC, <20% -CG with the remainder -IC

Thanks Harry,i though that there would be more ic but didn't know of which + or -

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Posted
  • Location: Hilversum, Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Sun, Deep Snow, Convective Goodness, Anvil Crawlers
  • Location: Hilversum, Netherlands

Think I'm going to take my chances with east anglia tomorrow and run up the M11 if things look a bit juicy. That way we can hit Lakenheath and go jet-hunting if the weather won't play ball. We'll be running a stream if it's good!

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Posted
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine. And storms
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
35 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Question is should I shut or leave open the velux 

windows tonight :fool:

I left one open once, went shopping and there was one of those 11am storms. Waterfall down the stairs scenario....:nonono:

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Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon
14 minutes ago, Convective said:

Bearing in mind that the lightning detectors don't pick up IC or CC lightning, that's a fair amount of CG lightning for a cell that size!

It's been picking up most of the flashes I've seen, can't tell if they are all CG as I can't see the base of the storm but a lot seemed 'up in the cloud' too, though a few faint ones it didn't seem to pick up (I thought they detected some CC/IC too, often seem to have in my experience).

Very quick detection too, the clicks coming from my computer were often less than a second after the flashes.

However it seems to have died a bit of a death atm...

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming

In Florence and hoping for a midday storm tomo but it's about 50% likely. Watching the UK with interest - particularly Sunday evening and overnight into Monday. There's a chance I could be very lucky and get back in time for a nice night time show - glad the forecasts aren't for severe storms over our area until then but do feel for anyone in the SE who is helplessly watching those Devon storms rolling in...

Anyone know any good cams in that area?*

 

* Yes I am aware of the irony of being in Central Europe watching a UK webcam for lightning :D

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Earlier cells died, new cells now firing further west. So far my for fun forecast is looking ok :D

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Weather Preferences: Lighting and sunshine
  • Location: London
24 minutes ago, Harry said:

I would guesstimate <5% +CG, <5% +IC, <20% -CG with the remainder -IC

I didn't initially know that + IC was a thing.  Does it have different characteristics like +CG 'superbolts' do? Does anyone have a link to any images? 

In light of the discussion, I'm driving from Manchester to Woking tomorrow, my deadline is 5-6pm.  Any advice on when to leave / what route I should take to catch any action? 

Edited by Chris Lea-Alex
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
6 minutes ago, Chris Lea-Alex said:

I didn't initially know that + IC was a thing. 

Intra cloud lightning.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Can anyone see lightnig off the Cornwall/Devon coast?

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
1 minute ago, Fiona Robertson said:

Strike near Exeter

False i am afraid,nothing there Fiona.

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

False i am afraid,nothing there Fiona.

How many fake strikes are showing up then, another near Exeter hmm...

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Sferics ramping up now to over 20 a minute and that's not including IC:D

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Weather Preferences: Lighting and sunshine
  • Location: London
11 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Intra cloud lightning.

I meant positive intra cloud lightning instead of negative (assuming negative is the default) 

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Posted
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
Just now, Ben Sainsbury said:

Those "fake" strikes maybe anvil crawlers?

Could well be! Remember lightning can strike up 10 miles away from a storm!

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Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35

Although by no means to be taken literally, there is a clear westward shift between 12z and 18z Netwx-sr high res model for precipitation. (12z left, 18z right)

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Untitled2.thumb.jpg.5dd6a84ed495acac9a762aff9cdd06ef.jpg

Untitled3.thumb.jpg.a094b93f28d46aa3736e9b8800078527.jpg

Untitled4.thumb.jpg.2190621b63511c118d207cad4d2383c4.jpg

Untitled5.thumb.jpg.ae85b47ff5a8e98c72fae6f4a1812f3c.jpg

Untitled6.thumb.jpg.0fd94ff1bc044b2738ee8b4cc4b7cb16.jpg

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