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Nick F

Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards

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10 minutes ago, Convective said:

Bearing in mind that the lightning detectors don't pick up IC or CC lightning, that's a fair amount of CG lightning for a cell that size!

What are the percentages of -cg,+cg,-ic and +ic in a storm or does it vary?

 

Edited by Allseasons-si

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7 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

What are the percentages of -cg,+cg,-ic and +ic in a storm or does it vary?

 

I would guesstimate <5% +CG, <5% +IC, <20% -CG with the remainder -IC

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26 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Question is should I shut or leave open the velux 

windows tonight :fool:

Ball lightning could rollin and upset the mechanism rendering them always open, that would be my worry.

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1 minute ago, Harry said:

I would guesstimate <5% +CG, <5% +IC, <20% -CG with the remainder -IC

Thanks Harry,i though that there would be more ic but didn't know of which + or -

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Think I'm going to take my chances with east anglia tomorrow and run up the M11 if things look a bit juicy. That way we can hit Lakenheath and go jet-hunting if the weather won't play ball. We'll be running a stream if it's good!

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35 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Question is should I shut or leave open the velux 

windows tonight :fool:

I left one open once, went shopping and there was one of those 11am storms. Waterfall down the stairs scenario....:nonono:

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14 minutes ago, Convective said:

Bearing in mind that the lightning detectors don't pick up IC or CC lightning, that's a fair amount of CG lightning for a cell that size!

It's been picking up most of the flashes I've seen, can't tell if they are all CG as I can't see the base of the storm but a lot seemed 'up in the cloud' too, though a few faint ones it didn't seem to pick up (I thought they detected some CC/IC too, often seem to have in my experience).

Very quick detection too, the clicks coming from my computer were often less than a second after the flashes.

However it seems to have died a bit of a death atm...

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In Florence and hoping for a midday storm tomo but it's about 50% likely. Watching the UK with interest - particularly Sunday evening and overnight into Monday. There's a chance I could be very lucky and get back in time for a nice night time show - glad the forecasts aren't for severe storms over our area until then but do feel for anyone in the SE who is helplessly watching those Devon storms rolling in...

Anyone know any good cams in that area?*

 

* Yes I am aware of the irony of being in Central Europe watching a UK webcam for lightning :D

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Earlier cells died, new cells now firing further west. So far my for fun forecast is looking ok :D

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24 minutes ago, Harry said:

I would guesstimate <5% +CG, <5% +IC, <20% -CG with the remainder -IC

I didn't initially know that + IC was a thing.  Does it have different characteristics like +CG 'superbolts' do? Does anyone have a link to any images? 

In light of the discussion, I'm driving from Manchester to Woking tomorrow, my deadline is 5-6pm.  Any advice on when to leave / what route I should take to catch any action? 

Edited by Chris Lea-Alex

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Latest euro4! Fingers crossed.

304675B8-C372-449D-9DD3-6B8A69C3D0EF-519-00000057A9B1E00D.gif

B3893F5D-4AE5-4D9F-81EB-024FF9D4A548-519-00000057BCA7DCC7.gif

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6 minutes ago, Chris Lea-Alex said:

I didn't initially know that + IC was a thing. 

Intra cloud lightning.

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1 minute ago, Fiona Robertson said:

Strike near Exeter

False i am afraid,nothing there Fiona.

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2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

False i am afraid,nothing there Fiona.

How many fake strikes are showing up then, another near Exeter hmm...

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Just now, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

It's all very west

I'm thinking the same 

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Sferics ramping up now to over 20 a minute and that's not including IC:D

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11 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Intra cloud lightning.

I meant positive intra cloud lightning instead of negative (assuming negative is the default) 

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Those "fake" strikes maybe anvil crawlers?

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Just now, Ben Sainsbury said:

Those "fake" strikes maybe anvil crawlers?

Could well be! Remember lightning can strike up 10 miles away from a storm!

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Although by no means to be taken literally, there is a clear westward shift between 12z and 18z Netwx-sr high res model for precipitation. (12z left, 18z right)

Untitled1.thumb.jpg.45e49fa33aafb3d09b1b590c3c5bb10e.jpg

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Untitled6.thumb.jpg.0fd94ff1bc044b2738ee8b4cc4b7cb16.jpg

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8 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

False i am afraid,nothing there Fiona.

More strikes in the area now, can't all be false.

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