Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Sign in to follow this  
Nick F

Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards

Recommended Posts

6 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

UK Scientific....isn;t that the old met monkey chaps?......decent bunch IIRC

I don't really remember but it rings a bell! They have performed quite well in my opinion, and although nowcasting as always, most forecasts are broadly close now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Normandy cell just shows how explosive the atmosphere is to our SW. All this juicy thundery air is moving across the UK in the next 24 hours.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Chris K said:

I don't really remember but it rings a bell! They have performed quite well in my opinion, and although nowcasting as always, most forecasts are broadly close now.

yep, met monkey were pretty good from what I remember.....Keithy Joe occasionally used to post on here, and mapantz, weren't you quote prominent on there?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I certainly was!
They were good days. Sadly, smaller weather forums are difficult to sustain when there are big ones. It's just nice to be on one when there's a hive of activity, so we can share our experiences/videos/pictures etc. :)

3 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

yep, met monkey were pretty good from what I remember.....Keithy Joe occasionally used to post on here, and mapantz, weren't you quote prominent on there?

I've been looking for some independent stations under those echo's in Northern France. I wanted to see if any rain totals were being recorded, or whether its properly elevated. It's a bit sparse for stations in that area, unfortunately. The colour chart shows them to be at the top of the scale on NetWx radar - 250 mm/h dance4.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I certainly was!
They were good days. Sadly, smaller weather forums are difficult to sustain when there are big ones. It's just nice to be on one when there's a hive of activity, so we can share our experiences/videos/pictures etc. :)

I've been looking for some independent stations under those echo's in Northern France. I wanted to see if any rain totals were being recorded, or whether its properly elevated. It's a bit sparse for stations in that area, unfortunately. The colour chart shows them to be at the top of the scale on NetWx radar - 250 mm/h dance4.gif

Hail core?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Considering the cell pushing out of Normandy I just want to highlight this part of the Estofex forecast made last night to show how incredibly accurate it is:

"Over W-France/SW-UK, the air mass stays capped until sunset. Thereafter, initiation is expected over the NE-Bay of Biscay and far NW-France as the trough and front both approach from the SW. Forecast soundings show elevated MUCAPE in excess of 1 kJ/kg with 15-20 m/s DLS. Thunderstorms grow upscale into an organized cluster of storms quite fast. This cluster crosses the W-English Channel and affects SW-UK during the second part of the night, where large hail will be well possible. In addition, low to mid-tropospheric winds strengthen over that region during the night to 15 m/s in the lowest 3 km. Elevated nature of storms should limit the overall severe wind gust threat, but we can't exclude the chance for stronger downdrafts to penetrate through the stable layer. Therefore strong to isolated severe wind gusts are also forecast. Heavy rain is possible over NW-France but confidence decreases for SW-UK due to the progressive nature of the cluster and its late arrival."

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Flashes of lightning visible on this webcam from St. Malo in northern France - When it's pointing in the correct direction :)

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, <<Ryan>> said:

Flashes of lightning visible on this webcam from St. Malo in northern France - When it's pointing in the correct direction :)

 

Thats a nice looking shower/storm! 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interested to see if NetWx-SR is in any way accurate with its development of cells over south-west England at roughly midnight, met-office shows very little at this time.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, <<Ryan>> said:

Flashes of lightning visible on this webcam from St. Malo in northern France - When it's pointing in the correct direction :)

 

You sure it's not the lighthouses? lol

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Essex Easterly said:

You sure it's not the lighthouses? lol

Lol, I'm sure! Rewind and you'll see :D

-Typical that when I posted this, the cell seemed to lose almost all lightning activity 

Edited by <<Ryan>>

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, Mesoscale said:

Thats a nice looking shower/storm! 

Still watching this camera ! ~ East of the Cell,. I can see rapid tower growth !! Expecting this to form soon!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Supacell said:

If things are still looking good in the morning I will definitely be chasing. The first round looks to pass over my area so I may stay near home and hope for the best in the morning. Through the afternoon I would need to head north or east. Models are not quite in agreement of whether it will be Lincolnshire/Humber area or further north from the Pennines to NE England. By tomorrow it could be different again.

The UK's tornado alley is the best bet tomorrow, which from experience is the the A1079 between York and Hull, the amount of times I've found myself chasing around the Beverley area.

Il be chasing from around from 2-3ish running with dashcam if theres anything about.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, vizzy2004 said:

The UK's tornado alley is the best bet tomorrow, which from experience is the the A1079 between York and Hull, the amount of times I've found myself chasing around the Beverley area.

Il be chasing from around from 2-3ish running with dashcam if theres anything about.

Id say that the UKs tornado alley is South Lincolnshire, with Sleaford being comparable to Oklahoma City ;)

Edited by ChezWeather

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It will be interesting to see the next radar returns as there are sferics N of the second cell,could be false returns.

yep,false.

the cell is picking up....over sea:)

Edited by Allseasons-si

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, vizzy2004 said:

The UK's tornado alley is the best bet tomorrow, which from experience is the the A1079 between York and Hull, the amount of times I've found myself chasing around the Beverley area.

Il be chasing from around from 2-3ish running with dashcam if theres anything about.

Vizzy, not good around here tomorrow, it's Radio 1's Big Weekend and the place is chockers plus tight security after Manchester. I would try and keep South, the traffic has been bad here this evening....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Estofex struggling with a forecast it seems. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, ancientsolar said:

Still watching this camera ! ~ East of the Cell,. I can see rapid tower growth !! Expecting this to form soon!

Looks like NE over Jersey on the latest radar return:),but could be anoprop,a line between the two cells is forming though.

Edited by Allseasons-si

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

These Models seem to be getting better and better for Thunderstorm risk 

 

18z top - 12z bottom

18Z.png

12z 26TH.png

Edited by TJS1998Tom

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Waiting to see what happens next! Feel as though we may get lucky with a storm down in the South Hams...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is there anyone over Plymouth or Torquay who can see these thunderstorms ? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...