Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Sign in to follow this  
Nick F

Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards

Recommended Posts

4 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Too busy to post screen grabs and info, but the MetO have issued numerous warnings.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings

According to these warnings South Wales may not get a thing of this Low overnight ... Though I would only take this with a pinch of salt,. as have experienced storms develop over night!! ~
Then Sunday - Monday Wales is just about in it... but I have very rarely seen Storms come in from SE England to Wales... 2/10 of the time ... 

(Tries to remain positive) < PS I just want a good lightning show!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 26 May 2017 - 05:59 UTC Sat 27 May 2017

ISSUED 09:12 UTC Fri 26 May 2017

ISSUED BY: Chris

A large-scale upper trough will approach Ireland from the west during Friday and in combination with a ridge to the east, will help to pull in a moist, unstable airmass from the south. A pre-cold frontal trough is expected to move into western Ireland during the afternoon and in combination with daytime heating and SBCAPE of 500-800j/kg should be enough generate surface based thunderstorms that could quickly become quite electrically active (initiation of thunderstorms in the Irish slight area is expected between 15-16z). Otherwise more isolated embedded thunderstorms may cross Ireland from west to east as the cold front moves through during Friday evening. 

Overnight the cold front will continue to progress eastwards and an area of midlevel instability will spread out of France and across the Channel into southern/southwestern England towards the end of the night.  MUCAPE of 600-800j/kg will move into the slight risk region in Britain towards the end of the night. Mid-level thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of Devon and Dorset around 02-03z on Saturday morning. This area of mid-level thunderstorms will continue NNW into Wales through the end of the night and into Saturday morning. 

An outlook for Saturday-daytime (post 06z) will be issued sometime on Friday. 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-05-26

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Radar watching and nowcasting folks. Those warnings are quite vague

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Expect flooding in parts of the Midlands if WRF is right

accumprecip_d02_40.thumb.png.b08e55c0c07c981e492148b09dea0b99.pngaccumprecip_d02_45.thumb.png.5984089918addddacec4dd97d5b46b68.png

Meanwhile, Euro 4 is a bit different...

17052718_2600.thumb.gif.d878f12f6801fc809b5838178c02549a.gif

Edited by Summer Sun

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Need a decent thunderstorm down here in the SW. Last chase i was on down here was back in 2015. I think it is time! Any help would be appreciated. 

Lightning Over Dartmoor.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Let's not forget, the GFS has a nasty habit of massively over-egging the CAPE values. I'm going to stay sceptical for the moment so my little heart doesn't get broken again :p

Too many times I've seen great storm potential on the GFS evaporate in the 24 hours before the event.

tmp_1781-gfsmeme1121927485.thumb.jpg.524575eb55b4412aae138ec2ba696f52.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, Sam Whitfield said:

Need a decent thunderstorm down here in the SW. Last chase i was on down here was back in 2015. I think it is time! Any help would be appreciated. 

Lightning Over Dartmoor.jpg

To be fair, for the South West Quadrant it looks like storms may erupt in the small hours (ie 3/4 in the morning) perhaps lasting to around 7/8 in the morning. Destabilisation of the trough is also not nailed down with capping being an issue.

For late Sunday/Sunday evening thundery action looks more likely the further east you travel.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This time last week I was more or less stood in the river Severn at Arley (don't ask - but photos can be proved upon request. Lol) and I can say that I noticed last Friday's storm breaking around me, and quite enjoyable it was too especially when it hit :D
Anyway... At the moment here in North East Wales we've got azure blue skies but with a strong southerly breeze, which is just taking the edge off the temperatures.
As others have said this is now gonna come down to nowcasting and radar watching.
Again this looks for me like it could go either way... Very much a 50/50 event.
I'm hoping, but also not getting my hopes up just incase, as I remember the 19th of July last year all too well... The cape and LI figures for my area wee just incredible, and all we had was just one poxy clap of thunder the following morning. :nea:
But good luck to everyone out there with this thundery breakdown, and I hope it produces the goods for (if sadly not all of us) at least some of us :bomb::friends:
I'll report back if and hopefully when something changes around here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm optimistic and pessimistic at the same time, as the 'non event' a few years still stands in my mind. I was down in Lincs at the time sat under 2000kj of CAPE that was forecast to break into violent storms from a passing cold-front, all the models showed it and all the forecasts predicted it. Yet in the end the worst of the weather was a brief 15min bit of rain from the cold front.

Even when conditions are perfect and everything points at a 'go' nature still does what it wants.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As I said I would, here is my (FOR FUN) shot at what I think the next 30 hours or so will hold storm wise.

It is based primarily on probability, though have thrown in a severe line for added fun.

It is based on what I think is likely to happen, courtesy of GFS, NMM, WRM and UKMO outputs.

The top forecast is for the period Fri 18z to Sat 12z, while the second is Sat 12z to Sat 21z. 

 

Fri 18z Sat 12z.png

Sat 12z - Sat 21z.png

Edited by Harry

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Harry said:

As I said I would, here is my (FOR FUN) shot at what I think the next 30 hours or so will hold storm wise.

It is based primarily on probability, though have thrown in a severe line for added fun.

It is based on what I think is likely to happen, courtesy of GFS, NMM, WRM and UKMO outputs.

The top forecast is for the period Fri 18z to Sat 12z, while the second is Sat 12z to Sat 21z. 

 

Fri 18z Sat 12z.png

Sat 12z - Sat 21z.png

I'll take that second chart Harry thanking you! 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm quite liking the NetWx for tomorrow morning..

viewimage.thumb.png.76a9868953b82ca55f013b9490e13064.png 592839fcc1939_viewimage(1).thumb.png.25ab5a50dc34c28cb5f2e786f9ee5197.png

592839ff7c5d1_viewimage(2).thumb.png.a423d9346381303a294624718bef2240.png 59283a0220b40_viewimage(3).thumb.png.e75d89dca26eec0f53eae1e740817941.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

PS. Anyone for Sunday eve? Connie_runner.gif

2017-05-26.thumb.png.97d15e1af13cf2297d14811868ea9766.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Right then boyes!

That time of year again and the next few days looks AWESOME! for potential.

Potentially for some VERY nice storms in the east tomorrow evening if there is any ignition..

ukcapeli.png

 

Not a "huge" amount of convergence going on though so i guess the front itself needs to trigger against the heat.

ukwind.png

Cant Wait for tomorrows Estofex forecast! Plz be a level2 over us.. They are rarely wrong for L2's

Edited by Lynxus

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not convinced about a major storm outbreak up here to be honest. Most of the main energy seems to be gone by 3 tomorrow afternoon. Not saying we won't get any rain or thunder but probably nothing too major

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

PS. Anyone for Sunday eve? Connie_runner.gif

2017-05-26.thumb.png.97d15e1af13cf2297d14811868ea9766.png

Ooohhh!!!!! I'm now planning to head down the coast Sunday afternoon and staying overnight. Will defo make sure my camera and video camera are charged :yahoo:

Edited by Harry

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Harry said:

Ooohhh!!!!! I'm now planning to head down the coast Sunday afternoon and staying overnight. Will defo make sure my camera and video camera are charged :yahoo:

This is what NMM is suggesting for convective precipitation early hours of Monday.

 

nmmuk-7-72-0.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, NUT said:

Not convinced about a major storm outbreak up here to be honest. Most of the main energy seems to be gone by 3 tomorrow afternoon. Not saying we won't get any rain or thunder but probably nothing too major

 

 

I would not worry about  it not all ways to do about the energy 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

TBH I see nothing but heavy convective rain from this in the north west as others have said will fizzle out ,usual suspects aren't placed to bad ,lol

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted this in my regional thread when i thought i was viewing this one lol:laugh:

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

TBH I see nothing but heavy convective rain from this in the north west as others have said will fizzle out ,usual suspects aren't placed to bad ,lol

lincolnshire:rolleyes::bomb:

Edited by Allseasons-si

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, MattTarrant said:

To be fair, for the South West Quadrant it looks like storms may erupt in the small hours (ie 3/4 in the morning) perhaps lasting to around 7/8 in the morning. Destabilisation of the trough is also not nailed down with capping being an issue.

For late Sunday/Sunday evening thundery action looks more likely the further east you travel.  

I will keep my fingers crossed in hope. About time we see a decent thunderstorm down here!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

'bout time the S-East got some storms

last year was terrible for the number of storms

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...