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Nick F

Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards

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11 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Looks like we will miss out on Saturday with most of any activity just skirting us.

It's still 3 days away, the likelihood that the areas to see a storm are being modelled correctly this far in advance is very unlikely. I would even be doubtful of precipitation forecasts released 12 hours in advance. For now I am just happy to see a possibility that the UK will be under some thundery air with the probability of storms.

I also assume you are talking about just the GFS, other models say different :)

mucape.thumb.png.00428de34e692cbebf11ea1bb7635a8d.pngprecip.thumb.png.481fc9d5d39ddc112497555373c98845.png

 

Edited by Supacell

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Unfortunately the Netwx is totally unreliable so I've ceased taking much notice of that. Anyway plenty of time yet and it just depends on how far east the low is the day. Plus other factors like unexpected cloud cover which has scuppered things in the past.

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Well hopefully anything that does happen Saturday happens in the evening, off to Twickenham for the Aviva Premiership final in the afternoon

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1 hour ago, Supacell said:

It's still 3 days away, the likelihood that the areas to see a storm are being modelled correctly this far in advance is very unlikely. I would even be doubtful of precipitation forecasts released 12 hours in advance. For now I am just happy to see a possibility that the UK will be under some thundery air with the probability of storms.

I also assume you are talking about just the GFS, other models say different :)

mucape.thumb.png.00428de34e692cbebf11ea1bb7635a8d.pngprecip.thumb.png.481fc9d5d39ddc112497555373c98845.png

 

Indeed...unlikely based on other models. Yes the instability will build but I'd be surprised to see rainfall as extensive as that.

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1 hour ago, Harry said:

Indeed...unlikely based on other models. Yes the instability will build but I'd be surprised to see rainfall as extensive as that.

Looks over cooked to me ,probably just drizzle here :nonono:

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On 23 May 2017 at 14:24, Windblade said:

Hi Harry. I'm in my late thirties and can remember a ton of great storms in the 80's, 90's and 00's but don't ever recall a year as bad as 2016! Yes, I think you were better placed on the kent coast to pick up any imports during the plumes last year. Back here there was nothing except heat, sweat and did I mention more unbearable sticky heat?! Lets hope for a decent few months ahead as the summer starts to move in. :)

This is exactly the kind of storms we've had over the past couple of years.

Fairly frequent lightning all around, muffled thunder, stop start rain

Bring on some good ol' fashioned MCS' with booming thunder :D

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Beeb really struggling with the forecast for this weekend. Darren Bett earlier and Louise Lear just now keen for widespread downpours across NW quarter of U.K, with increasingly isolated and discrete cells possible as you head SE perhaps as far south as C/N Midlands on Saturday. Looks likely to stay dry further S (and hot with temps knocking on 30C).

The real mystery surrounds Sunday into Monday for us southerners. Sunday has been increasingly looking like a damp/grey 23C sort of day, however Darren Bett just suggested 28C+ now for Sunday with a suspicion of perhaps thunderstorms drifting N/NE across the SE overnight. Hmmm...let's wait and see :D

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We should all know by now, the capricious nature of storms is what makes them equally attractive, yet frustrating. Predicting storms 24 h out let alone this far out is nigh on impossible

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13 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

We should all know by now, the capricious nature of storms is what makes them equally attractive, yet frustrating. Predicting storms 24 h out let alone this far out is nigh on impossible

Absolutely but I do love the bitty updates as the models update and shuffle about. 

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28 minutes ago, Harry said:

Beeb really struggling with the forecast for this weekend. Darren Bett earlier and Louise Lear just now keen for widespread downpours across NW quarter of U.K, with increasingly isolated and discrete cells possible as you head SE perhaps as far south as C/N Midlands on Saturday. Looks likely to stay dry further S (and hot with temps knocking on 30C).

The real mystery surrounds Sunday into Monday for us southerners. Sunday has been increasingly looking like a damp/grey 23C sort of day, however Darren Bett just suggested 28C+ now for Sunday with a suspicion of perhaps thunderstorms drifting N/NE across the SE overnight. Hmmm...let's wait and see :D

Ooh, I'm liking Darren Bett's update! More heat for us in the S is good news for storm chances. Will be monitoring the situation with great interest - fingers crossed that many of us across the country see some thundery activity.

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*checks Bristol weekend forecast*

80% storm risk for Saturday 10:00-13:00

*tries not to get excited*

:yahoo:

Really hope this carries through and we get a good storm! No doubt, I will wake up saturday morning to 0% storm risk XD

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Chance of any storms today for anyone?

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3 minutes ago, Delka said:

Chance of any storms today for anyone?

Unfortunately I don't think we have a trigger for these storms. No cold front or convergence for example.

 

On another note I have a really big eye out for Sat morning, could be some large active thunderstorms, brewing from the Bay of Biscay into NW France in SW England, Wales and into NW England, have a forecast out by tonight, but another amateur.

Edited by Ben Sainsbury

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1 minute ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Unfortunately I don't think we have a trigger for these storms. No cold front or convergence for example.

Ah i see, any storms that pop-up today will be nice addition for a few lucky people then

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 There won't be any anywhere, pressure is too high, too much caping ETC. 

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Hmm am I right in thinking we could possibly see some supercells on Saturday? June 2012 had very similar CAPE charts and Synoptics, albeit juicier temperatures and potential energy. 

Do think some of us may see something actually quite decent, if we don't get high cloud and lack of sufficient heating. 

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 I seem to be in a better place this time as well. 

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14 hours ago, Harry said:

This is exactly the kind of storms we've had over the past couple of years.

Fairly frequent lightning all around, muffled thunder, stop start rain

Bring on some good ol' fashioned MCS' with booming thunder :D

Yeah, that's one of the ones I missed last year unless that was the single night time storm I had last year which lasted about 20 mins, although I thought that was earlier in the year. Nothing up may way at all except that single storm in 2016. :cray:

Edited by Windblade

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General consensus seems to be any thundery activity this weekend will be from the west and the southeast may well remain dry and hot for as long as possible (EXACTLY like last year :wallbash:).

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43 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Hmm am I right in thinking we could possibly see some supercells on Saturday? June 2012 had very similar CAPE charts and Synoptics, albeit juicier temperatures and potential energy. 

Do think some of us may see something actually quite decent, if we don't get high cloud and lack of sufficient heating. 

Just a few thinngs to note: 

- High CAPE Values of 1000 J/Kg

- up to 40knts of DLS, good for sustained strong updrafts.

Could definitely see some strong thunderstorms,with frequent lightning and decent sized hail. That's as far as my knowledge extends unfortunately! 

 

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TT's for Sat morning/afternoon:

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Scattered would be the word to use at the moment.

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Weather Warnings issued for Ireland for heavy rain and thunder from tomorrow night onwards

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Yep, nothing better than potential thunderstorms and then realizing that you will be stuck on a checkout at sainsburys when its meant to happen.

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29 minutes ago, Jcweather said:

Hmmm. Definite Westward shift in those CAPE charts... :(

On a positive note, means on a later occasion like Sunday/Monday the SE are more likely to be at risk.

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