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Nick F

Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards

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It's 5pm already and I'm not getting that apocalyptic feeling.  

With no real  knowledge of weather I'm gonna bet: Tamworth, tomorrow, 6.01 pm, single cell thunderstorm, chips all-in 

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Just now, Allseasons-si said:

Gotcha:D

there are some CZ charts somewhere but cannot remember what site:wallbash:

Seems to be some potential there in next few hours .

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Starting to pop off now..

2017-05-22.thumb.png.9411a35fa9957acc1f5c057564145107.png 59230be1db76b_2017-05-22(1).thumb.png.2bb194ba9013f5abc447af6fc65c04ab.png

viewimage.thumb.png.d002e7141369333efad84d0829632fc9.png

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There is still scope for something in the next few hours. Since my thoughts yesterday the Met Office have moved slightly towards the GFS/NMM but the GFS/NMM has downgraded a little. Even so, there is still enough energy in the atmosphere to produce a storm across N England if anything can develop. The question was always going to be how strong the ridge was over England and Wales, this not really an issue for Scotland although instability lower here. The ridge has proven strong in stopping any convection so far. I am still thinking NW England, through the Pennines and into North Yorkshire/NE England this evening for the possibility of an isolated storm.

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9 minutes ago, Supacell said:

There is still scope for something in the next few hours. Since my thoughts yesterday the Met Office have moved slightly towards the GFS/NMM but the GFS/NMM has downgraded a little. Even so, there is still enough energy in the atmosphere to produce a storm across N England if anything can develop. The question was always going to be how strong the ridge was over England and Wales, this not really an issue for Scotland although instability lower here. The ridge has proven strong in stopping any convection so far. I am still thinking NW England, through the Pennines and into North Yorkshire/NE England this evening for the possibility of an isolated storm.

Thanks Supa,just looking at the latest cape/li values from the 12z gfs and does put the strongest in Lincolnshire/humber,could there be anything developing further south than what you suggest?

6-505UK.GIF?22-12

there is a very pronounced line/trough feature now from mid Wales northwards on the sat.

http://api.meteoradar.co.uk/image/1.0/?time=201705221610&type=satellietbuienradaronweer#f

Edited by Allseasons-si

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2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Thanks Supa,just looking at the latest cape/li values from the 12z gfs and does put the strongest in Lincolnshire/humber,could there be anything developing further south than what you suggest?

GFS is showing the precipitation somewhat further south too, but I am still dubious about ridging across Lincolnshire/Humber. If anything can develop further south around Cheshire/Peak District then this would be of interest to you in Barnsley and certainly would bode well for something around the Humber. GFS does look a bit optimistic though. Still, it's a risk I suppose.

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1 minute ago, Supacell said:

GFS is showing the precipitation somewhat further south too, but I am still dubious about ridging across Lincolnshire/Humber. If anything can develop further south around Cheshire/Peak District then this would be of interest to you in Barnsley and certainly would bode well for something around the Humber. GFS does look a bit optimistic though. Still, it's a risk I suppose.

Thanks buddy:)

have to nip out now to do a bit of shopping,I WILL NOT BE LONG:D

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Just now, Allseasons-si said:

Thanks buddy:)

have to nip out now to do a bit of shopping,I WILL NOT BE LONG:D

Unless you have to detour for a storm chase :good:

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My digital thermometer down the side of the house is showing 22.5c, it's quite gusty too. Keeps going quite dark at times.

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Had about 3 near misses with big cells in the last few days, so frustrating! Hoping this front moving in now delivers something other than 30 seconds of moderate rain...

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5 hours ago, Harry said:

We did have a fair few decent storms last year, Windblade. Maybe you weren't around at the time. Most of the plume related storms were very elevated affairs, thunder being particularly pathetic.

Also had a fair few thunder days during the day, although as I'm in the office I seldom get much opportunity to enjoy them.

I am hopeful this year will nevertheless be a good year. First semi-opportunity being later this week, however GFS already beginning to limit it and then shunt it eastwards. Still way out though so room for changes certainly. Now looking at 28C for Sunday :yahoo:

I remember one night time storm that approached from the southwest about 9.30pm one night which lasted about 20 mins (the green lightning was cool, although shortlived) and one day of constant thunder while still being sunny and dry (where cells would pass paralell to me all day long but not come over) and thats about it, unless there was the odd flash here and there that I do not recall. I also remember how every plume event produced absolutely nothing for me except unbearable humidity and heat while the majority of the rest of the country enjoyed storms and lower temeratures. :wallbash: Overall it was the worst year for storms I can ever remember and so far things haven't improved. I don't mean to sound down, and was happy others got to see some action, I'm just frustrated here.

Edited by Windblade

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4 minutes ago, Windblade said:

I remember one night time storm that approached from the southwest about 9.30pm one night which lasted about 20 mins (the green lightning was cool) and one day of constant thunder while still being sunny and dry (where cells would pass paralell to me) and thats about it unless there was the odd flash here and there that I do not recall. I also remember how every plume event produced absolutely nothing for me except unbearable humidity and heat while the majority of the rest of the country enjoyed storms and lower temeratures. :wallbash: Overall it was the worst year for storms I can ever remember and so far things haven't improved. I don't mean to sound down, just frustrated here.

You must be quite a bit younger than me - for me, 2007-2012 were AWFUL. 

Last few years have been reasonable in my view, although I do nip down the Kent coast now and then during plumes so maybe my recollections are skewed a little bit.

Either way, I'm on your side in hoping for lots and lots of storms :D

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How that's not kicking off in Glasgow or nr Aberdeen i'll never know

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2 hours ago, Supacell said:

Unless you have to detour for a storm chase :good:

Doesn't look like it this time:sorry:,oh well,just hope things kick off into the weekend.

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Early 2000s can't remember the year but day started sunny enough with a steady build up of cumulus,never paid much notice of it until it went dark quite suddenly  so out of curiosity  I went out of workshop to behold a fully formed supercell , arcus ,wall cloud the works , never seen such  a violent  storm with strobe lightning in this country since .

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9 minutes ago, Harry said:

You must be quite a bit younger than me - for me, 2007-2012 were AWFUL. 

Last few years have been reasonable in my view, although I do nip down the Kent coast now and then during plumes so maybe my recollections are skewed a little bit.

Either way, I'm on your side in hoping for lots and lots of storms :D

Yes they really were the years when I thought that plumes really were a thing of the past. May 2008 saw a whopper from the Low Countries that covered all of Belgium and W Germany clip the SE but that was it, apart from residual lightning from daytime storms at around 10-11pm on the rare odd occasion. It wasn't until the night of July 23rd 2013 when I finally had my faith restored! 

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7 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

How that's not kicking off in Glasgow or nr Aberdeen i'll never know

The thought that there is heavy rain around is boggling. Sat out in the garden, in shorts and t-shirt, glass of wine, birds chirping...bliss :D

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2 minutes ago, Harry said:

The thought that there is heavy rain around is boggling. Sat out in the garden, in shorts and t-shirt, glass of wine, birds chirping...bliss :D

Nice:)

if you cannot have the storms then settle for second best,Partly cloudy and still fealing quiet warm,it does look a bit darker to my west but i don't think nothing will happen storm wise hear tonight.

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Well I watched the front explode, pass over my house, and disappear with nothing but some heavy rain. It's amazing that there's no lightning with the intensity of the precipitation, definitely looked like lightning wasn't too far away when it was over me.

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2 minutes ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

Well I watched the front explode, pass over my house, and disappear with nothing but some heavy rain. It's amazing that there's no lightning with the intensity of the precipitation, definitely looked like lightning wasn't too far away when it was over me.

Can't argue there. Looked very menacing as it approached but just your bog standard burst of rain really now

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A beefy CU tower to the east of here but too much capping, Lochgelly webcam on YTLive however will be interesting to watch soon..

 

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12 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

A beefy CU tower to the east of here but too much capping, Lochgelly webcam on YTLive however will be interesting to watch soon..

 

It is biblical that rain and no sferics,strange

maybe the lack of cape/li where as yorkshire/Lincolnshire have the highest cape of -3.

look at that Glossop cell go:D

Edited by Allseasons-si

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There is something pretty big heading towards me right now. I can only pray that something happens

IMG_2188.PNG

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