Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards

[Stuart]

next week looking not to bad for some storms 

[Methuselah]

Just now, Stuart said:

next week looking not to bad for some storms 

Hello Stu. How are things, oop there in the Sneck? I really do hope you are right; I can't remember the last time it rained!

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 14 May 2017 - 05:59 UTC Mon 15 May 2017

ISSUED 20:16 UTC Sat 13 May 2017

ISSUED BY: Chris

Post-cold front environment will become unstable (100j/kg CAPE) with the combination of cold air advection aloft and daytime heating. Moisture will be limited in the southern area, so while convective showers will be likely, moisture and depth of convection will limit the risk of thunder. 

Profiles are a little more moist and unstable (200-250j/kg CAPE) in the Scotland area, and numerous showers will develop towards midday and into the afternoon and the risk of lightning there is deemed a little higher. 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-05-14

[Thunderstruck]

Further to what's been said about storms in Europe over the past couple of days, earlier, Blitzortung was showing an almost unbroken line of lightning from Barcelona to Hamburg! Incredible stuff!! 

[Harry]

A hunch I have is that it may be worth keeping an eye on Tuesday into Wednesday across southern and eastern areas.

I believe there to be a chance of thundery rain, especially if the progress east of the CF and subsequent wave (including possible triple point) slows. There will be a build up of reasonable instability on the eastern flank of this system which could creep our way if there is a slight delay in the progress of the frontal system.

Hasten to add it is a very low prospect at this stage, but not one I am ruling out.

Edited May 14, 2017 by Harry

[sunnijim]

1 hour ago, Harry said:

A hunch I have is that it may be worth keeping an eye on Tuesday into Wednesday across southern and eastern areas.

I believe there to be a chance of thundery rain, especially if the progress east of the CF and subsequent wave (including possible triple point) slows. There will be a build up of reasonable instability on the eastern flank of this system which could creep our way if there is a slight delay in the progress of the frontal system.

Hasten to add it is a very low prospect at this stage, but not one I am ruling out.

I have seen the NW forecast mention it yesterday as a possibility, together with other media,so perhaps not quite the low potential you may think?

[Supacell]

1 hour ago, Harry said:

A hunch I have is that it may be worth keeping an eye on Tuesday into Wednesday across southern and eastern areas.

I believe there to be a chance of thundery rain, especially if the progress east of the CF and subsequent wave (including possible triple point) slows. There will be a build up of reasonable instability on the eastern flank of this system which could creep our way if there is a slight delay in the progress of the frontal system.

Hasten to add it is a very low prospect at this stage, but not one I am ruling out.

How many times have we seen fronts from the west not move across as quickly as planned this year so far? If it was to happen this time then the far SE is only a short distance away from the thundery air expected over the near continent. If I was living where you were living I would be keeping one eye on it for sure.

[Mokidugway]

Nice brown willy over Cornwall atm 

[Harry]

1 hour ago, Supacell said:

How many times have we seen fronts from the west not move across as quickly as planned this year so far? If it was to happen this time then the far SE is only a short distance away from the thundery air expected over the near continent. If I was living where you were living I would be keeping one eye on it for sure.

It has certainly been a feature of the past few years, hence my eagerness to float it at this stage. Additionally, waving troughs are notoriously difficult to model anyway, with the added mystery in the fact that the wave itself will be courtesy of a developing area of LP expected to develop near the BoB.

I suspect many east of the CF through tomorrow, once the the WF has swept in, will be surprised by the high warmth/humidity it will bring. Hence even if the front progresses as modelled and we do not benefit from high instability modelled just across the Channel, we will be thoroughly wet, perhaps even with some sporadic convective elements, particularly as the triple point moves through Wednesday night.

[Frosty hollows]

Had a lot of convection today which came to nothing. Then in the last half hour an innocent looking shower has evolved into a massive downpour here. First decent rainfall in ages

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

24 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

Had a lot of convection today which came to nothing. Then in the last half hour an innocent looking shower has evolved into a massive downpour here. First decent rainfall in ages

Looks like a CZ stretching up from Bath area along just south of the M4 corridor which is brewing some hefty showers which are getting swept up over your area.

Too far north for us but had heavy rain earlier for about 20 mins - though been quite sunny since.

[Dangerous55019]

Nice to see the convective cloudscapes today, far more impressive than Thursday/Fridays so called thundery breakdown. 

Lets hope something goes bang this week for us all. 

[Thunderstruck]

The same cloud that just soaked all the Spurs legends on the pitch at White Hart Lane now appears to be heading for me, but it is only rain.

[Frosty hollows]

2 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Looks like a CZ stretching up from Bath area along just south of the M4 corridor which is brewing some hefty showers which are getting swept up over your area.

Too far north for us but had heavy rain earlier for about 20 mins - though been quite sunny since.

Temperature dropped a whacking 6 degrees after that cloudburst!

[Weather-history]

A bit of convection today

 

[Windblade]

On 2017-5-12 at 20:26, Dean E said:

Worth noting that France has had slightly higher temperatures today and a longer diurnal heating, hence the convection! 

That's true, but its just so typical that if the wind was blowing in the same direction as a couple of days ago those imports probably would've made it here.

[Windblade]

17 hours ago, Dangerous55019 said:

Nice to see the convective cloudscapes today, far more impressive than Thursday/Fridays so called thundery breakdown. 

Lets hope something goes bang this week for us all. 

Yep, mid week is looking more favourable although at this point I'm taking it with a pinch of salt as I've come to expect, going on recent developments.

Nice pics btw. 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Is Wednesday being downgraded to just lots and lots of rain?

[Harry]

1 hour ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Is Wednesday being downgraded to just lots and lots of rain?

Not convinced it was ever likely to be anything other than lots of rain to be honest. There was and is a slim chance of some thunder across the far SE but it's slim at very best.

[Mapantz]

I think perhaps the end of the week in to the weekend holds some scope for the ol' thundery showers favourite.

[Mokidugway]

Indeed mumspantz as cloudy would say it's looking slack and sparky ...

[convector]

1 hour ago, Harry said:

Not convinced it was ever likely to be anything other than lots of rain to be honest. There was and is a slim chance of some thunder across the far SE but it's slim at very best.

Slim indeed, however, if that trough sticks around and the cold front pivots/stalls, it would certainly raise the possibility. The gfs has been ever so slightly increasing instability across the far SE over the last day or two, which is somewhat promising. Wouldn't be surprised if we see a (rather pathetic) kent clipper or, at least, some offshore lightning. 

Can't wait to see some real setups - desperate to chase something (which is probably why i'm writing so much on an off chance). Although, saying that, things could get interesting over the weekend if the shear's good. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

We need the slack low centre over us for as long as possible in the upcoming set up. Cool air aloft allied to strong insolation at this time of year should set of some fireworks if the set up plays ball. Unfortunately in recent years, the optimal conditions wrt position of the low have occurred overnight rather than at peak heating. This has meant the west has already been in the subsiding air come afternoon, leaving the usual suspects in the east to enjoy the convective spoils.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Must say that things are actually looking very decent for much of England and Wales over the coming days! Pulse storms galore into the weekend for many, and with winds all over the place, I wouldn't rule out some decent funnel clouds within the showers and storms. 

[Windblade]

Well, I take it with a pinch of salt for tomorrow but you never know. Its my b.day tomorrow so it would be a great present from mother nature. The last time I had a storm on my b.day was 1993 (which is also my favourite b.day ever, got my Megadrive with Sonic 1 and Super Hang On - which I've still got - the storm was the icing on an amazing cake!). I remember it well. We had a lovely rainbow set against the black sky of the retreating storm afterwards. I'll never forget it.

Edited May 16, 2017 by Windblade