Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards

[Ben Sainsbury]

We can only dream... for now!

 

Edited May 7, 2017 by Ben Sainsbury

[Mapantz]

1 hour ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

We can only dream... for now!

 

A welcomed sight, even if it doesn't happen. It means that we can start thinking happy convective thoughts once again. 

[The PIT]

Interestingly they were talking about thunderstorms for the end of the week at lunch time. I think they are smoking a bit of crack but you never know. GFS shows no sign of it and the local forecast says not as well.

[matt111]

2 hours ago, The PIT said:

Interestingly they were talking about thunderstorms for the end of the week at lunch time. I think they are smoking a bit of crack but you never know. GFS shows no sign of it and the local forecast says not as well.

It was hinted on the local forecast here this evening. Nothing much said about it though. 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

I've heard murmurs over the last week. Potentially exciting stuff...

[Mokidugway]

Plume ???? 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

27 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Plume ???? 

A plume of sorts at least...

I'm really hoping for an early summer event to try out my new 'storm lounge'. I built a lounge in the back of my van complete with corner sofa and a lovely homemade wooden table. By Friday it will have wooden beams too :-D

All I need now is the weather for it!

[Windblade]

On 2017-5-2 at 22:16, Jcweather said:

Still more than what we've had here!

Yeah, its been my first flash and rumble for a year. Last year was dismal, and so far this years been off to a pretty poor start as well. The end of the week more looks interesting so I'm keeping an eye on things.

What happened to the huge, all-night-long storms we used to get in the 80's and 90's every summer?

Edited May 8, 2017 by Windblade

[Hodgheg]

Great to see the models teasing some storm chances. Of course too far off to get excited. Hoping for some decent storms for the end of may as i'm on holiday on the Norfolk broads. 

[Dami]

4 hours ago, Windblade said:

Yeah, its been my first flash and rumble for a year. Last year was dismal, and so far this years been off to a pretty poor start as well. The end of the week more looks interesting so I'm keeping an eye on things.

What happened to the huge, all-night-long storms we used to get in the 80's and 90's every summer?

Oh my. I remember having one storm that just went on and on. We were going on holiday that morning and it was still flashing at 5am. Amazing sky once it past, bright blue and full of Altocumulus castellanus. I really wish i could taken a picture. I have never seem a sky to match it ever.

[Mokidugway]

19 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

A plume of sorts at least...

I'm really hoping for an early summer event to try out my new 'storm lounge'. I built a lounge in the back of my van complete with corner sofa and a lovely homemade wooden table. By Friday it will have wooden beams too :-D

All I need now is the weather for it!

Cool ,my Range Rover has a  double sunroof great for stormwatching 

[Dami]

new rain coat and shoes for storm looking stuffs.

So looking forward to some storms this year.

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 10 May 2017 - 05:59 UTC Thu 11 May 2017

ISSUED 07:59 UTC Tue 09 May 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

This forecast is subject to timing errors, and may be moved to Thursdays (06z onwards) forecast should it look likely for developments to occur later than current expectations.

The main period of interest is after 00z Thursday with advection of a higher WBPT airmass on the forward side of the approaching Biscay upper low. Showery outbreaks of rain are expected to move north from the English Channel into southern England during the early hours of Thursday, with some scope for embedded elevated convection. The magnitude of instability looks marginal at the moment, and so any lightning activity is not expected to be too widespread based on latest guidance.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-05-10

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Day 3 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 11 May 2017 - 05:59 UTC Fri 12 May 2017

ISSUED 08:11 UTC Tue 09 May 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

WAA regime will continue into Thursday as a surface warm front lifts north across England and Wales. As a result, showery outbreaks of rain will continue to nudge northwards in a rather sporadic / erratic fashion, with some embedded elevated convection possible given destabilisation of higher WBPT plume as the Biscay upper trough approaches. At this stage there is too much uncertainty in the local-scale forecast to be any more specific, but some sporadic lightning will be possible, probably not widespread enough to warrant a SLGT given marginal instability.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-05-11

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Day 4 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 12 May 2017 - 05:59 UTC Sat 13 May 2017

ISSUED 08:22 UTC Tue 09 May 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

As the frontal boundary continues to lift north on Friday, a slack surface pressure pattern will evolve in the post-frontal environment near the low centre. Diurnal heating will generate several hundred Jkg-1 CAPE under a broad upper trough, with low-level wind convergence aiding the development of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms for Friday afternoon and early evening, decaying after sunset. Some areas will likely be upgraded to SLGT nearer the time, but this is heavily reliant on the shape and position of the surface low, of which there is too much uncertainty in guidance at present.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-05-12

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

A good handful of storm opportunities coming up... will be surprised if we're lucky enough to see anything from it but a chance is a fine thing all the same :-)

[Windblade]

Shame its all in the week and not at the weekend when most people are able to chase. Still, I'll take what I can get. Lets see what happens...

[Windblade]

One thing I'm wondering and have been for a while - is it possible to get a Supercell in the uk? I have heard reports of "supercells" in the uk but have yet to see any concrete evidence. Just looked like a severe thunderstorm that had been hyped up so to speak, but not necessarily an actual "supercell" (where the entire storm is not only huge but rotating)? I could be wrong on that of course, which is why I'm wondering if it's possible to get the right conditions in the uk for such a thing, and if so is there a particular place/location that would be most favourable? I'd appreciate if some more chasers/meteorologists could share their thoughts on this.

Edited May 9, 2017 by Windblade

[Mapantz]

13 minutes ago, Windblade said:

One thing I'm wondering and have been for a while - is it possible to get a Supercell in the uk? I have heard reports of "supercells" in the uk but have yet to see any concrete evidence. Just looked like a severe thunderstorm that had been hyped up so to speak, but not necessarily an actual "supercell" (where the entire storm is not only huge but rotating)? I could be wrong on that of course, which is why I'm wondering if it's possible to get the right conditions in the uk for such a thing, and if so is there a particular place/location that would be most favourable? I'd appreciate if some more chasers/meteorologists could share their thoughts on this.

There have been dozens in the UK over the years! Lincolnshire was a prime example, back in 2012. Hinckley was battered by golf ball sized hail. Birmingham tornado of 2005, that storm was supercellular.

I even experienced a supercell back in June 1983:

 

[Windblade]

Ah ok, thanks Mapanz. I thought those were just big storms but not necessarily a true supercell. Good to know. In that case is there a particular spot on the map that's better suited to produce supercells? I'm looking for a large area/borough or two with quite open roads and good views that would be a prime place to sit and wait to see if anything develops on a storm warned summers day (trying to increase my storm viewing potential here). Don't mind driving for a couple of hours to get there, but just not practical to travel the length of the country in the time I have (I am willing to travel about 100 miles in any direction).

Edited May 9, 2017 by Windblade

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

2 hours ago, Windblade said:

One thing I'm wondering and have been for a while - is it possible to get a Supercell in the uk? I have heard reports of "supercells" in the uk but have yet to see any concrete evidence. Just looked like a severe thunderstorm that had been hyped up so to speak, but not necessarily an actual "supercell" (where the entire storm is not only huge but rotating)? I could be wrong on that of course, which is why I'm wondering if it's possible to get the right conditions in the uk for such a thing, and if so is there a particular place/location that would be most favourable? I'd appreciate if some more chasers/meteorologists could share their thoughts on this.

The 28th June 2012 was like a rare American Midwest style day. Conditions were almost as good as it gets for the UK, a strong jet aloft going SW-NE, 30c temperatures with 22c dew points in places, and a backed, stifling and sultry SE flow at the surface, converging over the Midlands. We saw a couple of supercells amongst this setup. The main and most prime one started over Gloucestershire/SE Wales and then the storm effectively became a 'splitter' once it entered Warwickshire (the right side of the storm moving into higher DP's and temps, and inevitably started developing severe characteristics as its 'right movement' continued.) As soon as it hit Coventry, it grew at an alarming rate, and would've probably been pinging out over 100 strikes per minute if you was to look on blitzortung at the time. This storm then produced tennis ball sized hail over Burbage and Hinckley, all the way up to Melton Mowbray via Leicester and then once over the Grantham/sleaford area in Lincolnshire, produced quite a remarkable tornado. 

These videos tell it all. 

 

[Windblade]

Wow, thanks so much for the info and the vids. That really does indeed look like a proper full blown Usa style supercell. Looks possible then, but I gather for the uk at least you need the right conditions to come into play perfectly. My goal is to see a uk tornado (hopefully away from any built up areas for obvious reasons, I don't want anyone getting hurt), so I'm guessing I need to wait for a supercell style event or a smaller but still quite powerful elevated storm (not the pulse type affairs we seem to have gotton the past few years, although they are still fun to experience). I've seen a couple of funnel clouds in the uk before (one was actually a mile away from my house), but never anything that actually touched down.

Edited May 9, 2017 by Windblade

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

41 minutes ago, Windblade said:

Wow, thanks so much for the info and the vids. That really does indeed look like a proper full blown Usa style supercell. Looks possible then, but I gather for the uk at least you need the right conditions to come into play perfectly. My goal is to see a uk tornado (hopefully away from any built up areas for obvious reasons, I don't want anyone getting hurt), so I'm guessing I need to wait for a supercell style event or a smaller but still quite powerful elevated storm (not the pulse type affairs we seem to have gotton the past few years, although they are still fun to experience). I've seen a couple of funnel clouds in the uk before (one was actually a mile away from my house), but never anything that actually touched down.

Yes, to get a legitimate supercell here, you need the setup to be almost perfect, and for the timings to be right too, I.e getting the most and best out of the plume sector. 

For surface based supercells, the best chance of seeing one of those would have to be in the East Midlands, Lincs, and perhaps parts of East Anglia, maybe Kent too (if they come up from N/NE France.) Although the Northeast of England has seen a couple over the years. 

reasons for this would be the long track over strong diurnally heated landmass, which would give a storm cell more time to achieve supercell status, I.e the splitting process and maturing process. Without this, it just isn't possible. Supercells almost always in the Northern hemisphere travel in a N/NE or Easterly direction too, so eastern parts will generally always be most favoured in most setups. 

Edited May 9, 2017 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[A.J]

here's the link to a thread I created that very day....lots of footage......it was a remarkable day, I remember chatting with W09 the night before about the progged set up for the 28th and how we both favoured a possible severe outbreak, and indeed on the day itself, I was chatting with Paul Sherman as we watched on radar and elevated MCS (which formed over the Welsh Marches tap into the moisture rich boundary layer, the result being surface-based supercells to form on the SE flank of the system

 

[A.J]

4 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Yes, to get a legitimate supercell here, you need the setup to be almost perfect, and for the timings to be right too, I.e getting the most and best out of the plume sector. 

For surface based supercells, the best chance of seeing one of those would have to be in the East Midlands, Lincs, and perhaps parts of East Anglia, maybe Kent too (if they come up from N/NE France.) Although the Northeast of England has seen a couple over the years. 

reasons for this would be the long track over strong diurnally heated landmass, which would give a storm cell more time to achieve supercell status, I.e the splitting process and maturing process. Without this, it just isn't possible. Supercells almost always in the Northern hemisphere travel in a N/NE direction too, so eastern parts will generally always be most favoured in most setups. 

just to add, a favoured breeding ground for UK supercells is along the M4 corridor to the north of the Swindon area, supercells have often fired there and moved quickly NE through Oxfordshire towards The Wash, the topography helps storm longevity 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Pretty sure I've never witnessed a super cell personally. Struggle to see a basic thunderstorm here.

I can still remember feeling so crap during that 2012 event...hopelessly watching the Midlands get battered when here we got zilch

Edited May 9, 2017 by CreweCold

[Mokidugway]

Funny the first recognition of a supercell storm was over workingham uk in 1962