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Nick F

Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards

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When was the last time a MCS hit the SE inland as I can't remember the last time?

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5 minutes ago, Karen Gauntlett said:

are we set for anymore today ? cloud looks quite thick and grey at the moment though

The risk is there but a huge claggy mess is moving over from France. No sun here at all yet today with a bit of drizzle just now, and not particularly warm either. I'd be very surprised to see anything remotely interesting. Kent might get lucky again. If the clag cleared then it would probably be a different story. 

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10 hours ago, TJS1998Tom said:

I bet those in New Romney aren't getting much sleep, lol

It was crazy here never seen lightening like it, it was like a strobe light outisde my windows! It was hitting 245 hits per minutes for a good 45 minutes according to the live lightening radar..

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59 minutes ago, Chris K said:

Can see showers forming around the Channel Islands already, so I'd expect them to develop as they head NE. Looks like I am too far West again today unless a surprise pops up. Maybe from those developing down near Exeter? Today's storms I imagine will be based more on surface heating of the day.

Hopefully we get more chances through the Summer. A great weekend really when looking at strikes in past 72 hours.

 

Heavy rain here at the moment with another line to come . Very warm, muggy and still here . Can't see any thing connective coming out of it though(which is fine ) . 

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1 hour ago, James1979 said:

Really? I've seen a few things on the internet recently saying similar and even (non weather nut friends and family are noticing)but nothing official, I'd be really interested to see that. 

Bizarre last night as although the action was mainly Kent/channel way we got a few strikes around here about 1 every 5-10 mins in the end - just as I went to bed the closest lightning strike I've ever experienced hit somewhere near by. A flash and massive explosion at the exact same time had me 6 feet in the air and out of bed- i was sure the house had been hit!! Kind of makes up for not seeing the main action but very scary. Just wish I'd managed to actually see/film the bolt!

@Robbie Garrett

@James1979

Is this the document you're after?

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/j.1477-8696.1998.tb06352.x/pdf

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1 minute ago, Snowstalker said:

It was crazy here never seen lightening like it, it was like a strobe light outisde my windows! It was hitting 245 hits per minutes for a good 45 minutes according to the live lightening radar..

Radar strike rates are misleading in terms of what you actually see as the storm itself will obscure a lot of it - but also on the flip side it doesn't pick up a lot of the lightning that flickers around at the top of mature storms, so if you're lucky enough to get a clear view of the storm you'll probably be in for a good show.

I think general cloud obscured a lot of the lightning for many further west last night, plus the visibility wasn't great in places due to the rain.

I probably could have made it down to Kent and with hindsight it would probably have used the same amount of fuel.

It's a real pooper :-(

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2 hours ago, Buckster said:

quality of lightning last night = epic

quantity of lightning last night = pathetic 

probably only had about 8 lightning strikes last night but each was pretty special - some of the longest (distance) and longest duration C-C crawlers I've ever seen - epic thunder associated with it

pity not a lot of it

Totally agree, last night was probably the most amazing lightning I've seen in this country, as you say elongated crawlers that raced across the sky for several seconds at a time. Sadly they were several minutes apart. If we'd had the frequency that they had over France and in Kent, it would have been absoluteley epic.

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1 hour ago, Supacell said:

The question now is, when actually will anything happen in Derbyshire again??

I think we sit in a sort of void when it comes to storms,at least severe storms anyway; often in the last couple of years at least, North West set-ups have seen areas like Manchester/Bradford and North Yorkshire do really well, where as we miss out.

Whenever home-grown storms are on the cards, South Lincolnshire/Peterborough area is the place to be and we end up being too far West/North.

And then if by some miracle, an MCS did make landfall, the chances of it surviving this far north are slim, based on recent years anyway. 

But, its only May, we have 4 months of storm season to go yet, maybe this year will be different! 

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16 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

I think we sit in a sort of void when it comes to storms,at least severe storms anyway; often in the last couple of years at least, North West set-ups have seen areas like Manchester/Bradford and North Yorkshire do really well, where as we miss out.

Whenever home-grown storms are on the cards, South Lincolnshire/Peterborough area is the place to be and we end up being too far West/North.

And then if by some miracle, an MCS did make landfall, the chances of it surviving this far north are slim, based on recent years anyway. 

But, its only May, we have 4 months of storm season to go yet, maybe this year will be different! 

I saw a chart earlier showing the last 3 days lightning strikes with a void over the Midlands and some of CS England. If the high res charts are correct today then that void could be closed out a bit, to just include Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire :D. It is annoying though, i remember back in 2012-2014 the East Midlands was doing great for storms.

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31 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Radar strike rates are misleading in terms of what you actually see as the storm itself will obscure a lot of it - but also on the flip side it doesn't pick up a lot of the lightning that flickers around at the top of mature storms, so if you're lucky enough to get a clear view of the storm you'll probably be in for a good show.

I think general cloud obscured a lot of the lightning for many further west last night, plus the visibility wasn't great in places due to the rain.

I probably could have made it down to Kent and with hindsight it would probably have used the same amount of fuel.

It's a real pooper :-(

I think it is clear to see when watching the strike detector that some strikes (especially some of last nights big crawlers) will plot 20/30 sferics (smaller storms maybe 5/6) so yes, strike rates on detectors ive come to learn can be very misleading.

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6 minutes ago, Supacell said:

I saw a chart earlier showing the last 3 days lightning strikes with a void over the Midlands and some of CS England. If the high res charts are correct today then that void could be closed out a bit, to just include Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire :D. It is annoying though, i remember back in 2012-2014 the East Midlands was doing great for storms.

I agree, 2012-2104 it was excellent for storms round here. Last couple of years not so great and so far this year it's non existent. All we seem to have so far this year are heavy decaying remnants of storms. Might all change though as it's still very early in the year for storms. Keeping an eye on that shower cluster approaching the SW as it could develop into something good later in the midlands.

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Ok the video has been uploaded, the storm starts to get going at 6:00 

 

Edited by Atmogenic

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24 minutes ago, CAPE-steve said:

Ended up travelling much further south and east than planned, but ended up in Folkestone at midnight-ish! Some incredible lightning as I'm sure has been discussed to death already :D I got out of there before it got too crazy as I didn't want to become stranded in any flooding on the sea front. Some incredible spider lightning witnessed on the drive back up as well. Amazing day, but in hindsight a ridiculous amount of distance to cover for me. Thank goodness I've got the week off (the joys of working in education :) )

That's a pretty incredible chase there man :) 

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I'm curious, do you guys prefer a thunderstorm in the daytime or when it's pitch black in the middle of the night? Personally I like watching them at night.

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Warnings removed locally and national forecast no mention of any. I guess lack of warming.

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1 minute ago, The PIT said:

Warnings removed locally and national forecast no mention of any. I guess lack of warming.

They might be removing the old one's to replace them with new one's,we shall see.

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6 minutes ago, Martin Auld said:

I'm curious, do you guys prefer a thunderstorm in the daytime or when it's pitch black in the middle of the night? Personally I like watching them at night.

I like night storms for the lightning and daytime storms for seeing the cloud formations.

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41 minutes ago, Supacell said:

I saw a chart earlier showing the last 3 days lightning strikes with a void over the Midlands and some of CS England. If the high res charts are correct today then that void could be closed out a bit, to just include Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire :D. It is annoying though, i remember back in 2012-2014 the East Midlands was doing great for storms.

Definite void here!

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Some cells have blown up in the last ten minutes west of Exeter

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16 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

They might be removing the old one's to replace them with new one's,we shall see.

Met office saying on twitter that warnings have been cancelled. Nothing more to add.

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Looking lively near Exeter. Will it produce sferics?

 

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34 minutes ago, Martin Auld said:

I'm curious, do you guys prefer a thunderstorm in the daytime or when it's pitch black in the middle of the night? Personally I like watching them at night.

Evenings for me, 6-10pm

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