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Nick F

Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards

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Cannot begin to imagine how violent the upper atmosphere must be over the English Channel right now. Not often you see a storm pushing out close to 500 strikes per minute, excluding IC and CC sferics! When all the parameters come together, nature can do amazing things.

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Flashing an absolute biaatch. Seen two big orange CGs, but still so far away I haven't yet heard any thunder. Few splashes of rain to boot. Hoping it's not going to squeeze just up the channel which seems eminently possible at the moment :sorry:

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1 hour ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

57 mins drive down to Worthing.... is it worth trying? Anyone know any good spots to pork up and observe?

You would be stupid not to ...

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7 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

Looks like the storm is staying put in the Channel atm

No it's defiantly getting closer

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Loud rumble of thunder here 

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Are those strikes near Bournemouth real?

 

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2 minutes ago, tomp456 said:

Am caling it a night....

To the chosen ones who will come face to face with this beast, possibly in kent, enjoy!!!

Hold fire. It's tracking 020-030° if I'm getting very good visuals of lightning. You'll be in line.

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Just now, davehsug said:

Are those strikes near Bournemouth real?

 

Yes.

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10 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Been away most the weekend, so only just had chance to update my convective forecasts on Netweather.

Storm & Convective Forecast

CONVMAP_29-30_05.thumb.jpg.4b68a89743f4ff4d9a70017d0977f0e0.jpg

Issued 2017-05-28 22:08:52

Valid: 28/05/2017 18Z to 30/05/2017 06Z

CONVECTIVE/ STORM 2 DAY OUTLOOK- 28TH / 29TH

Synopsis

Upper trough axis approaches EIRE, Bay of Biscay and Iberia from the west Sunday night into Monday morning, as upper ridge extending north from the Mediterranean across Central Europe begins to relax. A plume of warm, moist and unstable air will spread north from France during Sunday evening/night across southern U.K., with thunderstorms likely on the leading edge of the plume as is to arrives overnight. Storms will clear away NE and weaken Monday morning, though diurnal heating of warm humid air across SE UK on Monday could trigger some isolated thunderstorms.

DAY 1 OUTLOOK - UNTIL 06Z MONDAY 29TH MAY

convmap_280517_2.thumb.png.cffe0a952047d827bd44f0b9dc256f97.png

... S ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT ...

As upper trough approaches from the west, colder air aloft from the west overrunning warm moist conveyor ahead of surface cold front to west of France combined with large scale ascent is triggering a cluster of thunderstorms across NW France and into western English Channel this evening. These elevated storms are quite electrically active and are modelled to grow upscale into a MCS, given increase in southerly low-level jet and around 40-50 knots of deep layer shear. This MCSs will likely track into southern England tonight, bringing locally torrential,rain leading to flash flooding, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, strong and isolated damaging wind gusts and also isolated large hail. Storms should weaken later in the night as they move away NE from southern England into more stable environment.

DAY 2 OUTLOOK - 06Z MONDAY 29TH MAY - 06Z TUESDAY 30TH MAY 

convmap_290517.thumb.png.6c8efc65c0eb6579fdd3ad3da498da5d.png

... S ENGLAND, MIDLANDS, LINCS AND E ANGLIA ...

Atmosphere will likely be largely turned over by overnight storms, however, residual mositure and surface heating combined with breeze convergence along a diffuse cold front may trigger isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon across the above areas. Localised torrential rainfall leading to flash-flooding, isolated large hail and gusty winds are possible from any storms.

Issued by: Nick Finnis

Wish I didn't go on holiday further North till a little later now, my area back home in Lincoln would be in for a chance, bugger

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1 minute ago, thunderhead 2005 said:

2 strikes outside Bournemouth GAME ON !!!!

 

JESUS THERES A CELL

Yes - confirmed!  Just as I was about to wave the white flag!

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I live in the countryside surrounded by trees, I've got some candles and torch ready just incase. :) 

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1 minute ago, thunderhead 2005 said:

anyone in Bournemouth confirm a storm

Typical, just got in bed and there was a loud rumble of thunder!

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Finally the Thunder is beginning to arrive.. long rumbles 

 

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I'm located central isle of Wight. Seeing a few distance flashes to the east but can't help thinking I'm going to miss the main event.

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I can hear thunder too.

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6 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Beachy Head will be a prime spot tonight..

Yeah I was thinking of making the journey tonight to Beachy head I wish I did, It takes 2 hours from here so is a little late now I think.

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2 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

Wish I didn't go on holiday further North till a little later now, my area back home in Lincoln would be in for a chance, bugger

remember these four words in that forecast

may trigger isolated thunderstorms

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