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Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards

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1 minute ago, tomp456 said:

When you realise the French have had the better of the action AGAIN.

 

giphy.gif

That'll be the reaction of those who get wet mess and one weak cloud fart.

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2 minutes ago, tomp456 said:

When you realise the French have had the better of the action AGAIN.

 

giphy.gif

So very true! They always get the best t&l and snow. Proper annoying!

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1 minute ago, STORMGUY said:

plum is now over the south west and just south of wales.should see some storms fire around salisbury area of there abouts.in lets say half and hour.

Salisbury is about 20 miles from here

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Just had a cell fire up a few miles south of Bognor. Huge IC and IG lighting and gunshot Thunder. Anyone nearby comfirm?

Edited by Robbie Garrett

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Been away most the weekend, so only just had chance to update my convective forecasts on Netweather.

Storm & Convective Forecast

CONVMAP_29-30_05.thumb.jpg.4b68a89743f4ff4d9a70017d0977f0e0.jpg

Issued 2017-05-28 22:08:52

Valid: 28/05/2017 18Z to 30/05/2017 06Z

CONVECTIVE/ STORM 2 DAY OUTLOOK- 28TH / 29TH

Synopsis

Upper trough axis approaches EIRE, Bay of Biscay and Iberia from the west Sunday night into Monday morning, as upper ridge extending north from the Mediterranean across Central Europe begins to relax. A plume of warm, moist and unstable air will spread north from France during Sunday evening/night across southern U.K., with thunderstorms likely on the leading edge of the plume as is to arrives overnight. Storms will clear away NE and weaken Monday morning, though diurnal heating of warm humid air across SE UK on Monday could trigger some isolated thunderstorms.

DAY 1 OUTLOOK - UNTIL 06Z MONDAY 29TH MAY

convmap_280517_2.thumb.png.cffe0a952047d827bd44f0b9dc256f97.png

... S ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT ...

As upper trough approaches from the west, colder air aloft from the west overrunning warm moist conveyor ahead of surface cold front to west of France combined with large scale ascent is triggering a cluster of thunderstorms across NW France and into western English Channel this evening. These elevated storms are quite electrically active and are modelled to grow upscale into a MCS, given increase in southerly low-level jet and around 40-50 knots of deep layer shear. This MCSs will likely track into southern England tonight, bringing locally torrential,rain leading to flash flooding, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, strong and isolated damaging wind gusts and also isolated large hail. Storms should weaken later in the night as they move away NE from southern England into more stable environment.

DAY 2 OUTLOOK - 06Z MONDAY 29TH MAY - 06Z TUESDAY 30TH MAY 

convmap_290517.thumb.png.6c8efc65c0eb6579fdd3ad3da498da5d.png

... S ENGLAND, MIDLANDS, LINCS AND E ANGLIA ...

Atmosphere will likely be largely turned over by overnight storms, however, residual mositure and surface heating combined with breeze convergence along a diffuse cold front may trigger isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon across the above areas. Localised torrential rainfall leading to flash-flooding, isolated large hail and gusty winds are possible from any storms.

Issued by: Nick Finnis

Edited by Nick F

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1 hour ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I'm just north of IOW near waterlooville - should I trundle over Brighton way?

Yes!!!

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2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

My god this is painfully slow! 

That means when it arrives it'll be a spectacular show!

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Have a sneaky feeling this is going to hug the french coast,then waste away into the north sea

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Already a few flashes off to the south east, very distant rumbles at times too

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5 minutes ago, Robbie Garrett said:

You means MCS? I've seen an MCC in Nigeria and they are bonkers. Our hotel pool was levelled by the rainfall.

 

The satellite image looked like MCC but it was not, sorry. 

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It's getting closer.... I have seen numerous flashes to my south and lightning now less than 20km away from south coast

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Is it me or does it seem to be heading almost due East now?

 

Edit: Maybe not...

Edited by Jcweather

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12 minutes ago, Callie said:

Go just past Beachy Head Pub several car parks facing Seaford, execellent location!

Thanks for that Callie, I am *seriously* considering it now! Getting things together, camera etc and getting postcodes at the ready for the satnav. If this doesn't look like dying down and it continues the marsh towards Brighton way, I'll hit the road. 

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1 minute ago, Mokidugway said:

Ye old Kentish clipper ,night everyone :nonono:

Yep, seems to be heading towards....yes, our old favourite, the Netherlands......

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Beachy Head will be a prime spot tonight..

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Am caling it a night....

To the chosen ones who will come face to face with this beast, possibly in kent, enjoy!!!

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3 minutes ago, Jcweather said:

Is it me or does it seem to be heading almost due East now?

 

Edit: Maybe not...

From what i can see... no

Capture.JPG

It seem to be a side winder (made up term :) )

Edited by LimoPreacherman

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2 minutes ago, UKSupercell said:

Thanks for that Callie, I am *seriously* considering it now! Getting things together, camera etc and getting postcodes at the ready for the satnav. If this doesn't look like dying down and it continues the marsh towards Brighton way, I'll hit the road. 

No problem I can hear distant rumbles now!!! Shame I'm working in the morning...

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Just now, tomp456 said:

Am caling it a night....

To the chosen ones who will come face to face with this beast, possibly in kent, enjoy!!!

Hold fire. It's tracking 020-030° if I'm getting very good visuals of lightning. You'll be in line.

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