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Nick F

Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards

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Moderate burst of rain over South/East Sheffield. Been raining for over 2 hrs now, useable & at a good time of the day.

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Well despite the excitement of the past couple of days for some, I remain a member of the No Storms Club 2017 for now

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13 hours ago, The PIT said:

No storm just a little bit of rain.

Radar was showing loads of sparks? Maybe it just missed you, but there was definitely a very active cell around there yesterday evening just ever so slightly to the east of Sheffield.

Edited by Windblade

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 30 Apr 2017 - 05:59 UTC Mon 01 May 2017

ISSUED 21:31 UTC Sat 29 Apr 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

On Sunday, medium level instability will be present close to the cold front as a narrow plume of high ThetaW advects northwards from Iberia on the forward side of the disrupting trough. The exact interaction between this trough disruption and surface features remains a little uncertain, but it is plausible some embedded elevated convection may occur close to the front, perhaps deep enough to produce some sporadic lightning.

On the rear-side of the cold front, surface troughing will lead to low-level wind convergence over SW England and SW Ireland, which may serve the focus for some isolated surface-based convection to occur on Sunday afternoon and early evening. Too much uncertainty exists over this potential and subsequent coverage, but given some reasonable DLS there may be scope to upgrade either of these areas to SLGT should confidence/coverage increase.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-04-30

Edited by Summer Sun

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Had my first rumble of thunder on Thursday with some moderate-heavy rain/hail mix.

Tomorrow seems fair for some isolated thunder across S and particular SW UK.

Feels like a fairly slow start for storms this year, hardly surprising however given the HP dominance we've seen over the past couple of months.

Hoping 2017 will be another good year with lots of potential for all.

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13 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 30 Apr 2017 - 05:59 UTC Mon 01 May 2017

ISSUED 21:31 UTC Sat 29 Apr 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

On Sunday, medium level instability will be present close to the cold front as a narrow plume of high ThetaW advects northwards from Iberia on the forward side of the disrupting trough. The exact interaction between this trough disruption and surface features remains a little uncertain, but it is plausible some embedded elevated convection may occur close to the front, perhaps deep enough to produce some sporadic lightning.

On the rear-side of the cold front, surface troughing will lead to low-level wind convergence over SW England and SW Ireland, which may serve the focus for some isolated surface-based convection to occur on Sunday afternoon and early evening. Too much uncertainty exists over this potential and subsequent coverage, but given some reasonable DLS there may be scope to upgrade either of these areas to SLGT should confidence/coverage increase.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date

When i click on that link SS,it says 1st Jan 1970:cc_confused:

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 01 May 2017 - 05:59 UTC Tue 02 May 2017

ISSUED 11:32 UTC Sun 30 Apr 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Cut-off upper low will reside over northern France / southern England on Monday, with a surface low lingering over England and Wales. A messy and rather complicated picture is expected, with a cold front and wrap-around occlusion provide the focus for some outbreaks of rain, rotating around the main low centre.

Behind the cold front, which will tend to straddle northern England, sufficient insolation will be capable of producing a few scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, particularly where low-level wind convergence provides some forcing (particularly SE Wales/W Country - S Midlands - Home Counties). The best overlap of instability and shear during peak heating will be found farther west. Some small hail may be possible with the strongest cells, along with the chance of a few funnels or weak tornadoes - especially close to the surface low centre.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-05-01

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42 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

When i click on that link SS,it says 1st Jan 1970:cc_confused:

Sorry posted it via my phone obviously didn't copy the link correctly updated the post

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Storm & Convective Forecast

convmap_010517.thumb.png.07cd72a8a779c459bce671a9970309bd.png

Issued 2017-04-30 21:42:00

Valid: 01/05/2017 00z to 02/05/2017 00z

THUNDERSTORM FORECAST - MONDAY 1ST MAY 2017

Synopsis

Cut-off upper low will slide east across France and the far S of England on Monday. At the surface, a shallow area of low pressure will drift N/NE across SW England/S Wales before sinking back S into the W English Channel by 00z Tues. Cold front will lift north Sunday night/Monday morning to lie from the Scottish Borders SW and S across Ern Ireland by 12z Mon, with wrap around occlusion extending from there across S England. 

... S ENGLAND and S WALES ...

Cold front lifting N Sunday night/Monday morning will bring outbreaks of rain, locally heavy, northwards across England and Wales. Behind this frontal rain, which will be mostly non-convective, insolation and cold air aloft will create steepening lapse rates to support heavy showers and a few thunderstorms, which will spiral around slow-moving low pressure across S England & S Wales and may focus into bands along wrap around occlusion. Any thunderstorms maybe accompanied by small hail and gusty winds. Also, locally heavy rainfall, where convection does align/organise along occluded front, may lead to localised flooding. Vertical shear, deep layer and low-level, will be weak where greatest instability will be, so any thunderstorms will be short-lived, so severe weather not expected on Monday. Surface convergence under slack low pressure centre may aid in the development of one or two funnel clouds that may extend toward the surface with stronger updrafts.

Issued by: Nick Finnis

Edited by Nick F

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Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 01 May 2017 - 05:59 UTC Tue 02 May 2017

ISSUED 04:05 UTC Mon 01 May 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Cut-off upper low will reside over northern France / southern England on Monday, with a surface low lingering over England and Wales. A messy and rather complicated picture is expected, with a cold front and wrap-around occlusion provide the focus for some outbreaks of rain, rotating around the main low centre.

 

Behind the cold front, which will tend to straddle northern England, sufficient insolation will be capable of producing a few scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, particularly where low-level wind convergence provides some forcing accompanied by the best overlap of instability and shear during peak heating (particularly SE Wales/W Country - S Midlands - CS England). A low-end SLGT has been issued to better highlight this area, albeit instability is not overly-impressive. 

Some small hail may be possible with the strongest cells, along with the chance of a few funnels or weak tornadoes - especially close to the surface low centre. Slow storm-motion may cause some temporary localised surface water issues.

 

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-05-01

 

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Showers forming to my North east and gradually coming this way through Gloucestershire.. A couple of sparks possible, although still relatively low risk.

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Have a visual on the storm to the north over North Bristol/Gloucester, very dark base and can see hail failing but still difficult to see. 

image.jpg

Edited by Ben Sainsbury

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Some small hail and a fair amount of cloud motion in the showers here earlier. Looks as though that may be it for the far southeast for today.

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 02 May 2017 - 05:59 UTC Wed 03 May 2017

ISSUED 04:41 UTC Mon 01 May 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Cut-off upper low will become centred across eastern France on Tuesday, but still sufficiently close to S/SE England to provide some cool air aloft and marginal instability in response to diurnal heating. A few scattered showers are likely to develop during Tuesday afternoon, enhanced by low-level wind convergence and thence moving generally S/SW-wards in the flow, perhaps marginally deep enough to produce some isolated lightning.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-05-02

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Thundery shower passing through. First flashes and bangs of 2017 i think! :D

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Can definitely see a lowering under that base, not sure whether a funnel is forming or just scud. 

image.jpg

Edited by Ben Sainsbury

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Just now, Ben Sainsbury said:

Can definitely see a lower under that base, not sure whether a finn is forming or just scud. 

image.jpg

It's heading S/SW from me towards N/NW Bristol. Actually quite a vicious shower with squally winds and hail thrown in as well as several claps of thunder.

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6 minutes ago, Chris K said:

It's heading S/SW from me towards N/NW Bristol. Actually quite a vicious shower with squally winds and hail thrown in as well as several claps of thunder.

Just saw a distant flash from Keynsham too. Very dark base and beginning to see a decent structure on it too.

 

To add strong inflow into storm on back-edge looks interesting.

Edited by Ben Sainsbury

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By the river at Lymington and this is the view to the north. 

IMG_0275.JPG

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Gust front like feature on the back edge now too!

 

A beauty of lightning strike to my West. Rumble of Thunder too.

IMG_4646.JPG

Edited by Ben Sainsbury

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