Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards

[Mokidugway]

First signs of cloud breaking up over Irish pond .

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

5 minutes ago, Buckster said:

quality of lightning last night = epic

quantity of lightning last night = pathetic 

probably only had about 8 lightning strikes last night but each was pretty special - some of the longest (distance) and longest duration C-C crawlers I've ever seen - epic thunder associated with it

pity not a lot of it

Never saw any of it! There I was looking like a mug at the end of the night as I was saying to my friends that the big storm will come over us at like 2am  the quantity of lightning that cell over Cherbourg was producing was utterly astounding though! Shame them storms tend to have a pattern to swing east, just about far enough to avoid us!! 

[Team Jo]

We were just a bit too far inland for the bulk of last nights fun and games, although that said we had some seriously loud thunder, lightning wasn't as prolific as I thought it would be though.

all to play for today, my station is reading 17c already so hopefully the heat will crank up enough to spark something of interest off later on.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

4 hours ago, UKSupercell said:

Got back almost one hour ago, and I gotta say....very hit and miss night! In general, I'm very disappointed, but it could've been worse. I did witness about 40-50 flashes, and drive through absolutely torrential rain just north of Brighton, but in terms of watching a frequent light display, it wasn't the case this time. 

Ultimately, two lessons to learn from tonight: 

1. I left at midnight. Had I left about 1 hour or so earlier, I'd probably have caught a bit more where I ended up, which was some pier front beach in Eastbourne, though I did try Beachy Head too but didn't see all that much....I delayed my departure though as frankly I wanted to be damn sure these storms weren't just going to die over the channel as has happened before....

2. No doubt had I left earlier, I'd have caught more lightning from the beach spot I found, but next time.....if in doubt, choose Kent! Had I gone to Folkestone or Dover (which were only 15-20 mins more in the car!!!) I'd have seen far more than in East Sussex. 

 

So there we are, disappointing but not terrible. I have a dash cam and will scan through my footage on there tomorrow, as it should have caught at least a dozen or so decent lightning strikes, otherwise, I got damn all on my Iphone and DSLR camera. 

I feel your pain. I found it hard to make out a lot of the lightning because the really prolific stuff was going on on the far side (over France) and the storm cloud itself prevented any view of even the flashes.

There was A LOT of Sheet lightning, and to see crawlers you would have needed to be in the right place - and to see them without having to shelter from the rain in the car you would have needed to be in exactly the right place at the right time.

i found a nice spot at Climping Beach - but just as I was enjoying the deep booms rolling in from the sea an RV with about 50 lights on the front rolled up and left its engine running completely ruining the ambience for everyone there. Thanks.

Either way, Guildford area has completely missed out on all events this weekend so Netweather please don't generalise and say 'more' storms for everyone.

Definate dissapointment for me today because I have actually been trying to chase storms and they are just not happening.

Had I been in the UK on Friday night I would have been down in Hants (possibly further west) and had a great show. Instead I was in Italy where all week we got NOTHING. Granted it was a nice holiday, but as you can imagine I'm a little disheartened to be consistently in the wrong place when storms kick-off.

Last night watching the storm do an almost 45° turn to the east right in front of me was honestly a kick in the balls.

Did see A COUPLE of very, very nice forks (3 in fact) - but don't be fooled by people except those on the tip of Kent that it was anything other than a huge thundery rain event.

I don't know if I'll even bother for the next plume if it's gonna always be like this.

[Chris Lea-Alex]

Gonna have a drive east today methinks for a bit of bank holiday scenary for the family.  Any recommendations on where I'm likely to see some action?  The (least far from Manchester the better) but I'm prepared to go east anglia if the show is good enough 

[Summer Sun]

 

[Supacell]

I've just woken up after not going to bed until 6am, as this is the time I got home from my storm chase last night.

It was an evening of mixed feelings. At one point as I arrived at the M25, I was excited seeing a strong MCS moving over the channel and heading NNE towards the SE. I was heading eastwards into Essex and it looked as though I was set to be right underneath it. To then see it decide to turn more NE and hug the East Sussex and Kent coastline made me feel utterly disappointed. My problem was I had forgotten my cash card and knew I only had enough petrol to get about as far as the Dartford Tunnel, any further and I would not get home. I came off the motorway and parked up near to Tilbury getting a bit of video of some very distant lightning from the south.

After a bit I got fed up of standing in the rain to film the odd flash of lightning that was about 20 miles away and sat in my car pondering the time and money I had just wasted. Just then a big crawler lightning lit up the sky to my south-west and was followed by the first audible thunder. For the next hour I stayed put and watched the show around me. There was not much lightning, probably one a minute at best, but when it did happen it was bright and sometimes flashed multiple times. There was the odd impressive IC bolt thrown in too. Winds had also increased but were making it cold for standing outside, it appeared to be cold outflow from the storm. As the storm moved away I began heading home, it was probably close to 3am by now. Driving through West Tilbury I saw the most incredible IC crawler followed by a massive CG bolt. The thing pulsed and went on for about 3 seconds. I will have captured something as I was filming on my dash cam, but the bolt was to the right of the car so no chance I caught that.

Considering what should of been I think what happened was disappointing, and if only I had not forgotten my cash card and had therefore been able to get further SE. I know though that it could have been so much worse, and it felt almost as if the slim pickings I did see were a consellation prize but a prize none the less. Yes ok, I have spent a lot of money and had a whole night on the road, but absolutely sod all happened in Derbyshire again. I do have some video to get through and edit today though once I have woken up properly, I just hope it's all worked, as this is the next heart in mouth moment when you are out filming storms, did it actually record properly?

The question now is, when actually will anything happen in Derbyshire again??

[Harry]

7 hours ago, TN26 said:

Just got back from Dungeness and Camber. I can honestly say I have never seen anything quite like that before. A mixture of CTG and intercloud lightning of varying colours from pink through to golden through to green. Booming thunder but sometimes almost throttled by comparison. Genuinely lightning every half a second as the main cell past up the channel. Roads flooded on the way back to Ashford. A memorable night for sure.

Totally agreed TN26. Was posting in a tired and partly drunken stupeur last night. But in the (hot and humid) light of day, I can see without exaggeration that it was the most electrified storm I have ever seen over the UK. Last year there was a storm just as electrified but which mostly stayed over Belgium. 

Full range of lightning from IC to CG to anvil crawlers. Full range of colours, reds/oranges, to blues/greens to pinks/whites. Thunder mostly high level, muffled crackly rumbles, but there half a dozen ground rattling boomers and one shotgun crack. Echo what others have said, some of the flashes (more so the IC/anvil crawlers) went on seemingly for several seconds and covered the whole sky, in some cases from Hythe/Dover to Ashford. I believe there had to be every joule of 3,000 MUCAPE modelled to experience that.

I've got some video and snaps to share, but not sure whether we can directly upload videos to here. Will have to wait until I have a laptop to fire up.

Based on the models and TV forecasts I thought I had made a duff decision (in want of storms) coming to the coast. Apparently I was inadvertently right. 

As for today, very warm and humid at the moment even near the coast. Would anticipate one or two storms today but not going to guess when and where.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

10 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

Try telling that to my fuel tank... 

[sunnijim]

Here on the East Sussex coast the lightning started over the 'French Side' at about 21.50. The first cloud to cloud flash as dusk fell.

By 22.30 the horizon was alive with regular c.c and c.g lightning.Between 22.30 and 23.30 some amazing lightning colours,orange,silver,green,blue....The m.c.s now closing in on the shore and rain starting.

At this point the lightning became less frequent,however the lightning we did get was pretty awesome (over the house at this stage)

Thunder was never really right overhead and rain rates nothing extreme.

Overall 6/10 here.The score due to the impressive lightning over the sea and later overhead.The mcs wasn't extreme here in terms of providing other ingredients so I can't go higher than 6.

[James1979]

9 hours ago, Robbie Garrett said:

There was a document going around with the lack of imports and MCS into the Southern UK the last 20 years or so.

Somebody will have the link. 

 

Really? I've seen a few things on the internet recently saying similar and even (non weather nut friends and family are noticing)but nothing official, I'd be really interested to see that. 

Bizarre last night as although the action was mainly Kent/channel way we got a few strikes around here about 1 every 5-10 mins in the end - just as I went to bed the closest lightning strike I've ever experienced hit somewhere near by. A flash and massive explosion at the exact same time had me 6 feet in the air and out of bed- i was sure the house had been hit!! Kind of makes up for not seeing the main action but very scary. Just wish I'd managed to actually see/film the bolt!

[Summer Sun]

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 29 May 2017 - 05:59 UTC Tue 30 May 2017

ISSUED 09:21 UTC Mon 29 May 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Early elevated convection having now cleared, residual high dewpoint air remains at the surface (Td 14-17C) in a rather slack regime, which provided there is sufficient insolation will generate 600-900 Jkg-1 CAPE with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms possible, especially Monday afternoon and early evening. Some small hail will be possible with the strongest cores, and given backed surface winds an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out - especially farther east where the surface vectors are most backed, enhanced by low-level convergence.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-05-29

[stainesbloke]

Very disappointing night here, it was the same old story of the last 15-20 years or so where massive storms swerve right when over the Channel. Had a few (4) decent flashes of lightning and one shotgun thunder, but the main event here was the very heavy rain that went on for a few hours. Could have been absolutely epic for much of the S, as happened numerous times in the 80's-90's. 

[Mokidugway]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 29 May 2017 - 05:59 UTC Tue 30 May 2017

ISSUED 09:21 UTC Mon 29 May 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Early elevated convection having now cleared, residual high dewpoint air remains at the surface (Td 14-17C) in a rather slack regime, which provided there is sufficient insolation will generate 600-900 Jkg-1 CAPE with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms possible, especially Monday afternoon and early evening. Some small hail will be possible with the strongest cores, and given backed surface winds an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out - especially farther east where the surface vectors are most backed, enhanced by low-level convergence.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-05-29

Seems to be signs that the super crud is breaking up could be a few surprises for some later .

[Thunderstruck]

Doesn't feel particularly humid this morning. Quite a bit of haze for the sun to break through which will limit surface heating for the time being. Could really do without a storm today, hoping to have a barbeque later.

[richep]

Its not all bad, potentially another 4 months of these sort of set ups, but all to often that last night's events happen the way that they did.

[Chris K]

Can see showers forming around the Channel Islands already, so I'd expect them to develop as they head NE. Looks like I am too far West again today unless a surprise pops up. Maybe from those developing down near Exeter? Today's storms I imagine will be based more on surface heating of the day.

Hopefully we get more chances through the Summer. A great weekend really when looking at strikes in past 72 hours.

 

Edited May 29, 2017 by Chris K

[Gordon Webb]

7 minutes ago, Jcweather said:

Doesn't feel particularly humid this morning. Quite a bit of haze for the sun to break through which will limit surface heating for the time being. Could really do without a storm today, hoping to have a barbeque later.

i agree didn't feel that humid to me when I was out about 30 minutes ago still cloudy with drizzle here

 

edit - just noticed the met office have withdrew the weather warnings

Edited May 29, 2017 by Gordon Webb

[Willsy]

Hopefully Those little blobs on radar to the west of jersey explode into something of interest. I noticed the same thing happen the other night  before that huge squall line developed went from 0 to hero in about an hour. Never seen something develop so quick except for the bmouth storm in 2015

[James1979]

9 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Very disappointing night here, it was the same old story of the last 15-20 years or so where massive storms swerve right when over the Channel. Had a few (4) decent flashes of lightning and one shotgun thunder, but the main event here was the very heavy rain that went on for a few hours. Could have been absolutely epic for much of the S, as happened numerous times in the 80's-90's. 

Sad isn't it? I've wondered so often what it is causing it-everything from melting ice caps to contrails but it's such a small (but significant and quite consistent imo) change relative to the earths size that all explanations seem far fetched hence I'd love to see an official paper on it. Who knows but I think driving to the action in future has to be the answer to avoid frustration!

[Mapantz]

This bank holiday weekend has been really good for storms. Two beauts in two days! It's now tipping it down again, with a chance of more imports, as well as home growns.

[wimblettben]

It was the odd rumble of thunder scenario here last night with a few faint and brightish flashes of lightning and some soft rumbles. It was obvious that the main action was going to be for eastern areas.

Main story was just the rain though, and it was absolutely nothing compared to Friday night, Saturday mournings event.

[Chris K]

I felt that the AROME model was good at picking up yesterday's storms and lack of interest for Western areas.

I will be keen to see how well it performs today:

Edited May 29, 2017 by Chris K

[Karen Gauntlett]

we had a good few long flashes of lightning and one or two loud rumbles but that was it really anticlimatic last night here is pompey 

[Karen Gauntlett]

are we set for anymore today ? cloud looks quite thick and grey at the moment though