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Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards

Nick F

By Nick F
in Storms & Severe Weather

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richep Apprentice

richep

Posted
  • Location: Bridgwater,somerset
  • Location: Bridgwater,somerset
Posted
3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Here's some projected rainfall totals. Although, they could be more localised than it is showing.

viewimage.thumb.png.7f4e7760ba082bb0d834e415147aff89.png

Don't like being in the actionless middle bit there 

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Gordon Webb Rising Star

Gordon Webb

Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
Posted
5 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Here's some projected rainfall totals. Although, they could be more localised than it is showing.

viewimage.thumb.png.7f4e7760ba082bb0d834e415147aff89.png

I don't appear to get a lot

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Norfolk Sheep Seasoned

Norfolk Sheep

Posted
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine. And storms
  • Location: Garvestone, Norfolk
Posted
3 minutes ago, Robbie Garrett said:

Hi Harry,

I'm guessing it'll have a more North East direction as it hits the channel per usual.  I'm in the coast in Bognor this weekend looking out over the sea. Will try post updates!

Any chance of a quick flight to Holland then? :rofl:

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

Don't take it as gospel, it's only a vague guide. Those types of charts are usually best suited to a large frontal system in terms of totals, it's a different kettle of fish in these types of setups. :)

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Gordon Webb Rising Star

Gordon Webb

Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
Posted
1 minute ago, Norfolk Sheep said:

Any chance of a quick flight to Holland then? :rofl:

Wouldn't Recommend British Airways at the moment

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TropicThunder Aficionado

TropicThunder

Posted
  • Location: Southampton
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and thunderstorms, snow in winter
  • Location: Southampton
Posted

That stuff in France is bonkers, but I'm already a bit concerned that it looks to be tracking too far east of here. Need some more storms to fire further west of it I think.

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted
5 minutes ago, Robbie Garrett said:

Hi Harry,

I'm guessing it'll have a more North East direction as it hits the channel per usual.  I'm in the coast in Bognor this weekend looking out over the sea. Will try post updates!

Me too! If there's anything to report of course.

Currently I may as well be on the Portuguese coast.

Fingers crossed for some flashy skies in T+3 hours :D

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Gordon Webb Rising Star

Gordon Webb

Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
Posted
1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

Don't take it as gospel, it's only a vague guide. Those types of charts are usually best suited to a large frontal system in terms of totals, it's a different kettle of fish in these types of setups. :)

yeah you may get even less

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Thunderstruck Community Regular

Thunderstruck

Posted
  • Location: Benfleet, South Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and breezy with a bit of cloud, about 20C
  • Location: Benfleet, South Essex
Posted

Question is: Can that lot across the channel retain its momentum?

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted
Just now, Jcweather said:

Question is: Can that lot across the channel retain its momentum?

Should do! It coincides with the highly unstable air due to strat trundling northwards in the next 1-2 hours 

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poseidon Aficionado

poseidon

Posted
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything apart from grey days
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)
Posted

Some reasonable convection underway, passing eastwards, looking more stormy all of a sudden....

 

image.jpeg

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SouthernSun Newbie

SouthernSun

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted (edited)

Looks like the precip image posted from netweathser was a decent depiction however the whole thing looks about 30-50miles too far west. The main storm over Brittany currently will propagate NNE to the east of the IOW. My area of Bournemouth looks to be in a nightmarish gap.....

Edited by SouthernSun
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Singularity Maestro

Singularity

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
Posted
5 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Here's some projected rainfall totals. Although, they could be more localised than it is showing.

viewimage.thumb.png.7f4e7760ba082bb0d834e415147aff89.png

The early Saturday storms produced a peak rain rate of 120 mm/hr here, but their fairly quick motion limited the impact greatly, with an observed total of just 5.5 mm.

This time we have both slower movement and more potential for the cells to grow in a sprawling manner, while there is about as much or perhaps even more moisture available.

So it could well be pretty nasty for some places tonight. If the above verified my May total would go from 5 mm short of the LTA to 30 or so above, which would make it look a wet month when considering summary statistics alone. It's actually had 17 dry days and if the big event last Wed hadn't occurred I'd be on 19.2 mm and looking to dodge tonight's rain in a bid to stay on course for the driest recorded May here in the period 2000-2017.

I've had an unusually large number of months since 2010 in which over half the monthly total rainfall (and on a number of occasions well over half) fell on just one or two days. Climate change showing it's hand perhaps?

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Mark Parsons Aficionado

Mark Parsons

Posted
  • Location: Bridport, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme
  • Location: Bridport, West Dorset
Posted

Over 200 strikes pm over nw France heading for the IOW eastwards me thinks........

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted
1 minute ago, Jcweather said:

Question is: Can that lot across the channel retain its momentum?

I'd refer to aj and supacell's posts from earlier.. :)

 

 

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Thunderstruck Community Regular

Thunderstruck

Posted
  • Location: Benfleet, South Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and breezy with a bit of cloud, about 20C
  • Location: Benfleet, South Essex
Posted
1 minute ago, Harry said:

Should do! It coincides with the highly unstable air due to strat trundling northwards in the next 1-2 hours 

Cool. I'll start watching for flashes around 11-12 sort of time then

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Robbie Garrett Seasoned

Robbie Garrett

Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Weather Preferences: MCC/MCS Thunderstorms
  • Location: London, UK
Posted
4 minutes ago, Harry said:

Me too! If there's anything to report of course.

Currently I may as well be on the Portuguese coast.

Fingers crossed for some flashy skies in T+3 hours :D

My mother as we walked to dinner noticed the wind had dropped and the humidity picked up. The thundery showers we had at 130-2pm seemed to have cleared the damp squib over the channel and south coast.

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Singularity Maestro

Singularity

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
Posted
1 minute ago, SouthernSun said:

Looks like this is decent depiction however the whole thing looks about 30-50miles too far west. The main storm over Brittany currently will propagate NNE to the east of the IOW. My area of Bournemouth looks to be in a nightmarish gap.....

As far as I'm concerned that's entirely typical of that area and as a result my area a little way inland :nonono::laugh:

Seriously though - I have watched a staggering proportion of downpours and thunderstorms go wandering merrily by, most of them either 15-30 miles to my west or 20-40 miles to my east. Then in a westerly you get all those ones hugging Salisbury Plain while the sea breeze moves inland to keep this region clear. It should be separated from Hants/Dorset and named 'NoWeather' :p

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DIS1970 Community Regular

DIS1970

Posted
  • Location: Wolverhampton
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme Weather, Tornado's, Heavy snowfall, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wolverhampton
Posted

Don't post much, do a lot of sitting on the fence, but it looks i'll miss all the fun again, right down the middle of both area's of interest.

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Karl83 Community Regular

Karl83

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes.
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
Posted
15 minutes ago, matt111 said:

So is this what we're all after tonight?:clapping:

IMG_0410.PNG

I want a piece of that!

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

The latest UKMO rainfall projections are pretty devastating. Apart from a narrow slither of heavy rain grazing the coast, all the action stays over the Channel and N France. Can't see that myself, although it's a worry! To think I hesitated about coming to coast just 8 hours ago.

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Tom Jarvis Community Regular

Tom Jarvis

Posted
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
Posted
3 minutes ago, West Sussex Kate said:

Im not sure Sussex could handle that! Lol! 

You going out tonight I'm going up to my local look out spot on the ashdown forest

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Mark Parsons Aficionado

Mark Parsons

Posted
  • Location: Bridport, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme
  • Location: Bridport, West Dorset
Posted
3 minutes ago, West Sussex Kate said:

Im not sure Sussex could handle that! Lol! 

That's what ive been watching and if it remains elevated bingo for those in line for it

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