Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards

[A.J]

1 minute ago, Gordon Webb said:

I was referring to another possible outcome perhaps this will convey what i was trying to say

too many cooks spoil the broth

Too many persons involved in managing an activity can ruin it, as in Without a conductor, every player had an idea for how the music should go-too many cooks spoil the broth . This expression alludes to each of many cooks adding something to a soup, which finally tastes awful.

take weather model for person and you should get the idea

sounded like you were referring to me at first.....fair enough...........anyhoos, gfs12z is underwhelming.....it goes against UKASF & Estofex....I guess the latest output shows a much different evolution so I await the 12z NMM with interest and trepidation

[Harry]

12 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

agreed, what we'll in all likelyhood see is for cells to develop rapidly over the northern English channel over the south coast and directly inland from the south coast......This reminds me of a setup from 3 years, when around 10pm all was quiet which patchy drizzle from Ac-Cas over southernmost counties and within 30 minutes said Ac Cas erupted into numerous elevated storms

In these sorts of setups, it is frustrating because it is total now-casting. All models show explosive ingredients drifting in over the next few hours. We shouldn't be seeing AcCas yet, feeling sweaty yet, it should look like a bog standard flat HP sky for the next few hours (as it does). As the petrol laiden skies drift north later we'll start to see it start to look agitated and feel more sub-tropical. Patience is king

[Bolt from the Blue]

Keeping an eye on this

[Karl83]

7 minutes ago, tomjwlx said:

I got a headache so many different forecasts I have no idea where to go, some saying its going to be a kent clipper others saying it will be further west going to be a nowcast for now on!

Well if the Met Office predicted radar output for later this eve is correct then I'll be staying home.

[Guest]

Bit the bullet and travelled further south. Currently holedup at Northampton services eating a southern fried chicken flatbread (don't get those in the north  ). Depending on how things evolve I can stay here and search out a vantage point or if it's a bit further south east I'm heading to Barton Hills nature reserve near Luton instead. 

Things better kick off! The prospect of videoing night-time elevated thunderstorms was too good to turn down

[Wilxy]

Getting darker to the south!

[Wilxy]

5 minutes ago, Karl83 said:

Well if the Met Office predicted radar output for later this eve is correct then I'll be staying home.

I'm waiting for the next euro4 output in the next 30-45mins that will decide it for me I think as it did a good job on Friday night

[A.J]

12z NMM moves things further east, but the caveat is that this output in itself is already a few hour old, but does tie in the with the other 12z outputs in moving instability further east and exits more rapidly....wait and see I guess, favoured areas currently are the home counties and the SE.....initiation is expected in Lyme Bay moving quickly ENE, so at a rough guess anywhere west of a line Weymouth - Swindon may miss out (bugger)

[ThundersnowDays]

Wavy dark cloud formations overhead

[tomp456]

If you live in south/south west U.K. and you want to know if you'll get some storms later, toss a coin, and there's your answer. 

 

[richep]

1 minute ago, tomp456 said:

If you live in south/south west U.K. and you want to know if you'll get some storms later, toss a coin, and there's your answer. 

 

Whys that, do you have a better chance ?

[tomp456]

1 minute ago, richep said:

Whys that, do you have a better chance ?

It's 50/50 by the sounds of things, hence the coin toss 

[SenlacJack]

37 minutes ago, Rob Walker said:

Suns come back out here for last 10 mins (and across south coastal counties east of here by looks of it) after the odd touch of light rain spits for the last couple of hours with that band of leftovers that moved up from the channel. Feels very muggy here but not going to get too enthused until later on once the plume destabilises; Not liking the amount of uncertainty between forecasts at the moment so will check back later to see where things are looking favourable.

Yes indeed. Sitting in my back garden here on the south coast as I type and barely a cloud in the sky. It's an ever changing situation though and I certainly won't be ruling anything out for the next few hours.

[richep]

3 minutes ago, tomp456 said:

It's 50/50 by the sounds of things, hence the coin toss 

I'd say it's 50/50 for anyone inside the risk zones. No one really knows 

[Ben Sainsbury]

Can see a shower in the distance, but no structure or anything else interesting to be seen.

[SteveB]

Bit of a heavy shower formed from nowhere, nothing spectacular but potential is there I guess

[Storm mad]

To avoid confusion or disappointment don't watch the lasted bbc forcast...where wafty graphics are back...does anyone have any idea where the far south East stands tonight...I've already beaten last year with two storms in two days...so can't grumble...but would love to see something special from this potential...wherever u are good luck...

[matt111]

1 minute ago, Storm mad said:

To avoid confusion or disappointment don't watch the lasted bbc forcast...where wafty graphics are back...does anyone have any idea where the far south East stands tonight...I've already beaten last year with two storms in two days...so can't grumble...but would love to see something special from this potential...wherever u are good luck...

Also there was no mention of anything more than the odd rumble of thunder. Bit different to what I heard on the radio at 6pm which said potential torrential downpours with thunder overnight. 

[Storm mad]

Northern France is starting to brew up...with some sporadic sferics....guess this is what we'll all be keeping an eye on...

[tomdewey]

This look nice cloud

[ThundersnowDays]

1 minute ago, tomdewey said:

This look nice cloud

Getting similar clouds here

[Bolt from the Blue]

Dramatic skies to my west

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Just watching the storms over NW France go from 30 strikes a minute to 80 strikes a minute in under 5 minutes. 

Atmosphere is primed 

[tomdewey]

1 minute ago, ThundersnowDays said:

Getting similar clouds here

It looks Like under a blanket 

[Polar Maritime]

Clouds to my South & S/W.