Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards

[Harry]

Hard to tell as I got out of the shower about half hour ago, but it does feel as if the heat and humidity is really beginning to build now (wasn't expecting the humid air to arrive until much later).

Feels warmer and more humid than at any time over the past week, but again, just how it feels rather than statistically accurate 

[TropicThunder]

19 minutes ago, Sentinel said:

Hi all, I'm a long-term lurker I've finally decided to sign up.

Can anyone on the south-coast see any cloud build up yet? I'm based in Southend and often sit on the seawall when storms come in as you can see them coming up over the North Downs, the Medway and over the Thames Estuary. Last year we had some fantastic cloud formation preceding one thuderstorms, so I'm hoping for something today.

Hi Sentinel, this is my current view to the south, not a lot of sun coming through but feeling warm and humid.

[MattTarrant]

A little bit of Alto Cas drifting by

[Sentinel]

13 minutes ago, Jcweather said:

Hi and welcome to the forums! 

I'm just down the road from you in Benfleet, hopefully we'll see something good tonight  

The signs are looking good. Very calm sea in Southend at the moment. SO calm you just know something is going to happen!

[Sentinel]

Storms about to make landfall over the Lizard peninsula. Anyone live down there?

[NO LONGER POSTING]

19 minutes ago, Harry said:

Hard to tell as I got out of the shower about half hour ago, but it does feel as if the heat and humidity is really beginning to build now (wasn't expecting the humid air to arrive until much later).

Feels warmer and more humid than at any time over the past week, but again, just how it feels rather than statistically accurate 

Second that, heat and humidity well up on the rise now, starting to get very sticky here in Surrey 

[Harry]

6 minutes ago, Sentinel said:

The signs are looking good. Very calm sea in Southend at the moment. SO calm you just know something is going to happen!

We've committed to heading coast bound to spend time with the folks. Storm wise I think it's probably the wrong call, but must put family over hobbies  (so corny I nearly threw up myself  )

Good luck everyone, am sure there's going to be some belters over the next 18 hours for some lucky ones. 

[MartinD]

We might be a little to far west here in Worcester for the storms today but we have strong sunshine even though a little hazy and very humid! 24.8c but you never know later this evening, we might i hope catch something after being teased the other night when we could see the sky flickering from lightning 100+ miles away over the south coast.

[Frosty hollows]

My beautiful blue skies are now filling with AcCas. Maybe there is some potential after all

[Mapantz]

..some nice clouds to my South, just making their way in to view on my webcam.

 

[matt111]

This is the view to the south just off the coast. 

[CaptainHappy]

5 minutes ago, matt111 said:

This is the view to the south just off the coast. 

Is there any thunder from it? Seems to have sent electrical activity far to the east now...

[matt111]

1 minute ago, CaptainHappy said:

Is there any thunder from it? Seems to have sent electrical activity far to the east now...

Couldn't hear anything coming from it. 

[A.J]

35 minutes ago, MattTarrant said:

A little bit of Alto Cas drifting by

Very similar skies here now

[Mapantz]

Photo's don't do it justice to be fair. Formula 1 takes priority over this now, i'm afraid. 

. 

[Gordon Webb]

Apologies for what may seem and obvious question but according to the forecasts I read ie estofex convective weather and others a lot of this wasn't expected to start evening and overnight or have I missed something , I'm also off to watch lewis hamilton win from 13th

Edited May 28, 2017 by Gordon Webb

[West Sussex Kate]

I wish i could get up higher onto the southdowns and have a look out to sea.

[snowy weather]

How's it looking for Crawley ? 

[Guest]

10 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

Apologies for what may seem and obvious question but according to the forecasts I read ie estofex convective weather and others a lot of this wasn't expected to start evening and overnight or have I missed something , I'm also off to watch lewis hamilton win from 13th

That's right. Anything that makes it over the channel now is a bit of a bonus really, as the severe potential isn't there, hence the lack of sferic activity at the moment.

All eyes to the channel later as storms are expected to develop later this afternoon/early evening and track NNE as the plume destabilises - 7pm onwards going by expert forecasts

[ChezWeather]

Big downgrade for the midlands on Ukmo precip graphics, all the heavier stuff moved SE

[West Sussex Kate]

 

Edited May 28, 2017 by West Sussex Kate

[Supacell]

Still huge differences between the models both from one model to the next and also from one run to the next of any particular model. I do not envy anyone having to make a convective forecast from all this!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

1 hour ago, Frosty hollows said:

Temps on the rise here. Not a cloud in sight and the air feels dry. Doesn't feel in the slightest that we could get a storm in the next 24 hours. It's an absoluely beautiful day for a bit of work in the garden!

Interesting you say that. July 3rd 2015 felt exactly like that here, infact it felt very cool and I was wondering what on earth would keep them going this far north. Then I'm sure at about 21:00, Paul Sherman identified this small warm front and said watch the humidity now skyrocket behind this front as thermal advection took place. Then not long after, BOOOM! 

[chionomaniac]

Ha - I've cunningly offered to take my children bowling tonight this evening at Brighton Marina, followed by food. Window seat please!

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Still huge differences between the models both from one model to the next and also from one run to the next of any particular model. I do not envy anyone having to make a convective forecast from all this!

Tricky trying to make a decision to travel south, too!