Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards

[Buckster]

12z just out - I'm a universe away from being an expert - but if anything looks worse than the 6z

maybe a chance of the tip of Kent clipper but other than that

maybe some rain in the West - but can't see if convective or not

[Wilxy]

1 minute ago, Buckster said:

12z just out - I'm a universe away from being an expert - but if anything looks worse than the 6z

maybe a chance of the tip of Kent clipper but other than that

maybe some rain in the West - but can't see if convective or not

I disagree if anything looks a tad better especially for you lot in the SE! 

[Wilxy]

Euro 4 did very well last night so here is how its looking for tomorrow night!

[Buckster]

interesting Tom - thats raised my excitement thanks   (I'm a storm fan btw)

did I miss-read the GFS output or is it showing a very different prediction of tomorrow night ?

thanks

[wimblettben]

Beautiful lightning storms last night from 12:00AM with the faintest flashes in the distance to right overhead at 4:00AM and moving away.

I always look for faint flashes or heat lightning when we are forecast storms as you can see lightning at a far greater distance during the night compared to the day, and this is why when I saw constant faint flashes like a firework display before deciding whether to go to bed or not I knew we were in for something.

There wasn't anything too nasty though, more just frequent and amazing intra-cloud lightning with very infrequent cloud-ground.  

Edited May 27, 2017 by wimblettben

[Mesoscale]

2 minutes ago, wimblettben said:

Beautiful lightning storms last night from 12:00AM with the faintest flashes in the distance to right overhead at 4:00AM and moving away.

I always look for faint flashes or heat lightning when we are forecast storms as you can see lightning at a far greater distance during the night compared to the day, and this is why when I saw constant faint flashes like a firework display before deciding whether to go to bed or not I knew we were in for something.

There wasn't anything too nasty though, more just frequent and amazing intra-cloud lightning with very infrequent cloud-ground.  

I too look for night flashes as well but last night I saw one that had to have been 80+ miles away. 

[MP-R]

Some grabs from last night:

 

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Finally! A tropical downpour with one CG strike! Better than nothing but I want more! 

[NUT]

No idea what direction it coming from but still got some thunder rumbling around what a afternoon

[NorthYorksWeather]

1 hour ago, TJS1998Tom said:

Shame here in Pickering, North Yorkshire the main storm missed us but it was interesting to see it build up in the distance

Yes frustrating here too just south of Malton, storm to west and east but nothing overhead. Plenty of distant flashes and thunder heard though, better than nothing.

[BlueHedgehog074]

3 hours ago, <<Ryan>> said:

Video of storm from twitter - Some hail thrown in there and some pretty strong winds!

 

Now that is what I call a deluge! 

[The PIT]

Not a lot to get the pulses racing for Monday maybe possible in the evening as there's some cape around then. In the morning there's quite a bit of mid level cape in the morning though over southern areas.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

50 minutes ago, Buckster said:

interesting Tom - thats raised my excitement thanks   (I'm a storm fan btw)

did I miss-read the GFS output or is it showing a very different prediction of tomorrow night ?

thanks

GFS is a poor model to use looking for storm placement. It's okay at looking at ingredients required and where they maybe but even then it has a tendency to over cook it. 

Euro4 and high res models are better, but even then we are just guessing. Thunderstorms are very hard to predict. 

10 miles up the road could be in a deluge while you watch distant lightning 

Edited May 27, 2017 by Surrey

[Harry]

58 minutes ago, tomjwlx said:

Euro 4 did very well last night so here is how its looking for tomorrow night!

Looking at precip only is a cardinal sin. If it's not overlapping with CAPE then it'll likely just heavy rain.

When I checked the NMM earlier (in my experience pretty good at close range) there was a decent slab of instability across the SE quarter, suggestive that there is a reasonable chance of sparks here whereas the stuff further west less so. Let's check the 00z models in the morning.

[richep]

 BBC forecast for tomorrow late afternoon / overnight looks ok with heavy showers storms moving up from the south. One area of storms for the West and another for the east. If what the bbc show is true then it's going to be an all nighter .

[The PIT]

NMm is generally pretty poor just looking at the 6oz and where the storms were it showed dry conditions in the south east. However it did show high cape which shows that you don't have to overlap the prec and cape to end up with unexpected storms. I only use when desperate for something to show something good.

[Marcus_surfer]

Round 2 tomorrow night for the Southwest then? Last night was some of the most intense lightning I've ever seen in the UK!

[Windblade]

Bit late to the party. I woke up this morning at 8.30 to the sound of thunder. Had a look out the window to see a darkening to my north west. Had a short bout of big convective rain and four IC flashes and rumbles. Didn't expect that, I thought any activity would come later in the day so was a nice relaxing surprise to start the weekend. Storm quickly moved off to the east which showed a very active squall line over the east coast about an hour later on radar.

[TJS1998Tom]

9 minutes ago, Marcus_surfer said:

Round 2 tomorrow night for the Southwest then? Last night was some of the most intense lightning I've ever seen in the UK!

According to the BBC Week Ahead the North could be in with another chance again perhaps for the early hours?

[A.J]

19 minutes ago, Harry said:

Looking at precip only is a cardinal sin. If it's not overlapping with CAPE then it'll likely just heavy rain.

When I checked the NMM earlier (in my experience pretty good at close range) there was a decent slab of instability across the SE quarter, suggestive that there is a reasonable chance of sparks here whereas the stuff further west less so. Let's check the 00z models in the morning.

after last night's horror show in it's evolution, i'm taking it's (NMM) current output with a large pinch of salt.....it got it horribly wrong last night.....it was so bad that I thought the data entry analyst was either drunk and had entered a different day's parameters!

[richep]

Hopefully, bbc seem to think so, they've forecast storms in the past though and just end up with rain. Maybe just covering themselves after last night's bad boy 

[Supacell]

25 minutes ago, Harry said:

Looking at precip only is a cardinal sin. If it's not overlapping with CAPE then it'll likely just heavy rain.

When I checked the NMM earlier (in my experience pretty good at close range) there was a decent slab of instability across the SE quarter, suggestive that there is a reasonable chance of sparks here whereas the stuff further west less so. Let's check the 00z models in the morning.

Nice gap across the North Midlands so I expect this is close to the mark for tomorrow night

[bazookabob]

Part 1 of driving through the storm south of Leeds earlier. Apologies for any bad language! (Part 2 is where the real scary driving was... to be continued)

 

Edited May 27, 2017 by bazookabob

[Thunderstruck]

On a train near Barking now, looking a little threatening to the SE but nothing there apparently...

[Mapantz]

Here's my IP cam recording from early this morning. No sound i'm afraid, and just have a flick through, as I couldn't be bothered to do any video editing. 

I do believe, the +CG that hit, shows up somewhere around 25:00

 

Edited May 27, 2017 by Mapantz