Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards

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3 minutes ago, teeno said:

Morning everyone. Does anyone one know what the CAPE levels for today are please?

Very high if you're in the right place 

[matty40s]

CAPE is needed, rain cape, doing the BCN 24 hour challenge today and storm clouds are approaching central Brum.....

[Azazel]

14 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

 not even close to be honest......the monster storm that hit dorset & wilts last summer or the summer before I remember was hitting well over 300 strikes per minute, and the june 28th 2012 elevated MCS aka El Brumo kicked out 400 sferics per minute at one stage

as for early this morning.....a great flickering display in the distance, but ended up a damp squib once it arrived here.........sorry I sound a bit grumpy, no sleep at all, poorly daughter up all night and I feel like poop 

That one the summer before last was only the second time I've witnessed strobe lightning, stood out in the middle of a field drunk haha.

 

thunder woke me up this morning. Quite a few flashes and bangs but seems to be quietening down. My first storm since moving to Andover.

 

[AL.]

Woken around 05.00 to deep booms and a weird orange sunrise! Not the best of storms but it's a start! Looks like Sunday into Monday could be better.

[Gordon Webb]

an update to from dan at convectiveweather.co.uk

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 27 May 2017 - 05:59 UTC Sun 28 May 2017

ISSUED 05:00 UTC Sat 27 May 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Aloft, a shortwave trough will track NE-wards on Saturday across the British Isles, atop an airmass of high WBPT. Some uncertainty remains about the exact convective evolution during this period, but we outline 3 potential rounds of notable convection:

 

... ELEVATED CONVECTION SATURDAY MORNING ...

It is likely that some elements of elevated deep convection will be present at the beginning of the forecast period over portions of Wales, SW Midlands + CS England. This will continue to migrate NE-wards during the morning hours, but with large uncertainty over coverage of lightning, and probably tending to fragment with time - hence some sections of the SLGT may remain lightning-free.

 

... SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION LATE MORNING / EARLY AFTERNOON ...

Early elevated convection may gradually become rooted in the boundary layer and / or new surface-based thunderstorms may develop as the trough axis continues to move NE through the day - this most likely to occur over northern and eastern England assuming there is sufficient preceding heating during Saturday morning. Large CAPE and sufficient shear would suggest the risk of large hail greater than 2.0cm in diameter, frequent lightning and strong, gusty winds will be possible with these storms, hence the inclusion of a SVR. However, it is worth noting not every location will necessarily be affected by a thunderstorm, but those that do occur have the potential to be severe. Given backed surface winds, some scope for a tornado will exist - but perhaps mitigated by relatively high cloud bases in general.

 

... SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING ...

Behind the trough axis, profiles become very dry aloft but with high dewpoint air remaining near the surface until the shallow cold front moves through later in the day. Provided some upper support and a return to strong insolation in the afternoon, a new round of surface-based thunderstorms will be possible - some perhaps severe. The exact location will be dependent on the eventual shape of the surface low over Northern Ireland, but general trends would suggest this potential new round of thunderstorms is most likely over northern England, perhaps moving into S Scotland by evening - a MDT has therefore been issued for this activity. Farther south, very dry profiles and weaker upper forcing may limit the potential for any afternoon/evening thunderstorms.

 

only change I see is moderate issued for afternoon / evenng storms N England S Scotland

[teeno]

 

3 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Very high if you're in the right place 

Thanks for that, what a good night it was here.

[bigguscumulus]

Well that was fun, not quite a humdinger, constant, distant thunder and lightning, then one mind-meltingly loud strike (+cg??), seemed to suck all the energy out of the storm, then nothing

[P-M]

Well its a little after 6am and its beautiful blue skies and 15c already. Loving the risk for the great north east today. Must say in recent Years we've definitely had an increase in severe storms. In terms of when they hit they appear far more electrified and cause that bit more damage than years ago. Not sure why this would be or whether im remembering the younger year storms wrong but can never remember homes being flooded out the way these storms seem to today. Anyway yesterday was glorious loved every minute of the wall to wall sunshine. Lets see what the day brings! 

Edited May 27, 2017 by P-M

[Shane Wheeldon]

The rain band is losing its intensity, i will be lucky to see 5 minutes rain out of this!

[Gordon Webb]

1 minute ago, Shane Wheeldon said:

The rain band is losing its intensity, i will be lucky to see 5 minutes rain out of this!

yeah it was expected to fragment as it goes NE then the fun and games begin again after it hs gone through especially for N and NE england and also S scotland

[SP1986]

It is looking unlikely those who are to the north of this rainband will see any storm activity now (wrong time of day etc etc) .. however it should liven back up with daytime heating further north?

[Shane Wheeldon]

Just now, Gordon Webb said:

yeah it was expected to fragment as it goes NE then the fun and games begin again after it hs gone through especially for N and NE england and also S scotland

I should have guessed really this area really is cursed when it comes to storms. I was hoping for some meaningful rain for the garden and a storm to  keep me entertained with a very wide awake 7 month old who has been awake since 4:30! 

 

[Dangerous55019]

Just woken up to a distant rumble of thunder. 

Gone are the azure blue skies... The sky looks very dark slate grey and promising. 

[Gordon Webb]

2 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

It is looking unlikely those who are to the north of this rainband will see any storm activity now (wrong time of day etc etc) .. however it should liven back up with daytime heating further north?

that's what's expected , also looking at the met office warnings for tomorrow expecting a drenchng but I'm on the extreme northern edge of that warning so I'll not pay too much attention at the moment

[STORMGUY]

my webam will stay on untill this rain passes over

https://www.youtube.com/user/AndyReggae67/live

[Stuart]

21c  dew point at 15c and humidity at 70%

and LI at -2 to -3

so all not looking bad here for storms later this evening 

[The PIT]

Fresh here and six degrees cooler than forecast. Just watched the forecast and no storms for us just to far north for the first batch and too far south for the second. Off for a walk soon just in case.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

1 hour ago, Surrey said:

For the south east we need to be patient, Sunday night looks better for us. 

Good luck all in the risk areas today, hopefully the atmosphere can re charge after last night's storms. And anyone that got a storm work class! 

The models didn't have a scoobie!!! 

Been catching up - looked like a great show back home. The models seemed to be quite accurate - esp estofex which almost perfectly predicted where it would all lose intensity.

Without the benefit of hindsight I think I would have failed to travel far enough west in time and the danger would be I'd have stayed in Godalming or perhaps headed down toward IOW to catch a glimpse and then been peeved off when it all stopped in its tracks back at our front door...

looks like the storms on Monday AM are creeping forward to early evening Sunday - but as long as we have time to catch our flight back tomorrow afternoon and get home before it does then I'll be a happy bunny (providing it delivers).

anyway enough analysis - we're off to the Uffizi in an hour - and there's a small chance of a lunchtime thunderstorm here according to accuweather

[Super_Uwe]

Wow! Incredibly we seem to have just missed the overhead action here. I slept through it all after going to bed just before midnight, so it can't have been anything too crazy here

Looking at the radar from earlier in the night, seems it kicked off a bit further west towards Plymouth. There didn't appear to be much rain either, the cars and road look more or less dry.

Fine margins eh!

[Frosty hollows]

Had a short lived downpour and a couple of big booms. Sky is an incredible orange colour thuogh. I'm off to the gym shortly so kets hope round 2 doesn't kick off til I get there. (quite happy to get soaked on way back though!)

 

[AL.]

1 minute ago, Frosty hollows said:

Had a short lived downpour and a couple of big booms. Sky is an incredible orange colour thuogh. I'm off to the gym shortly so kets hope round 2 doesn't kick off til I get there. (quite happy to get soaked on way back though!)

 

Similar here in Swindon, the sunrise was incredible with a strange orange glow! Just a few rumbles and it tracked north towards you.

 

[Eye to the sky]

Morning all,it could be a busy day on here today hopefully.I have woken to grey skies here but could be in the right place for storms later on.I'm at work till 12 and then on a stag party down Nottingham,so hoping to catch a storm whilst having a pint in a beer garden somewhere!!,here's hoping.Well good look everyone lets see how the day pans out.

 

[carl1980]

Starting to rain,just heard thunder in the distance I think

[Frosty hollows]

17 minutes ago, Super_Uwe said:

Wow! Incredibly we seem to have just missed the overhead action here. I slept through it all after going to bed just before midnight, so it can't have been anything too crazy here

Looking at the radar from earlier in the night, seems it kicked off a bit further west towards Plymouth. There didn't appear to be much rain either, the cars and road look more or less dry.

Fine margins eh!

My daughter texted me from Plymouth at about 1am to say it was pretty scary stuff and she loves a good storm.

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Cool skies here