Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards

[Paul]

For those who may have missed it, Nick has posted up a Storm and Convective Forecast for tonight and tomorrow here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

[Thunderstruck]

Really could personally do with storms holding off until the evening, as I'm in London tomorrow. That said, I wouldn't mind a light show on the train home at about 19:00, which actually is a real possibility,

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

The BBC forecast looks like nothing but a weak front moving north across NW England into Scotland, weird 

[Mokidugway]

If I see a storm tomorrow I'll eat my dog .....

[Chris.R]

3 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

If I see a storm tomorrow I'll eat my dog .....

Lol I'll hold you to that; :-) although I might let you off with a hotdog. 

[Dangerous55019]

I see that something is already happening to the north west of Ireland.
Like wise northern Spain and over the Pyrenees also currently look s quite juicy as well 

https://www.lightningmaps.org/?lang=en#y=54.5084;x=-5.1094;z=4;t=3;m=sat;r=0;s=0;o=0;b=0.00;n=0;d=2;dl=2;dc=0;

[Mapantz]

9 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

If I see a storm tomorrow I'll eat my dog .....

I remember when you sent me a picture of yourself with it..

[cheese]

12 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

If I see a storm tomorrow I'll eat my dog .....

Please don't. 

[stainesbloke]

1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

PS. Anyone for Sunday eve? 

Sunday evening and overnight looks more interesting than tomorrow here in the S. 

[Mapantz]

7 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Sunday evening and overnight looks more interesting than tomorrow here in the S. 

Yap - I agree. I won't get too excited yet though, but still a nice prospect after this wonderful spell of weather.

[Frosty hollows]

20 minutes ago, Dangerous55019 said:

I see that something is already happening to the north west of Ireland.
Like wise northern Spain and over the Pyrenees also currently look s quite juicy as well 

https://www.lightningmaps.org/?lang=en#y=54.5084;x=-5.1094;z=4;t=3;m=sat;r=0;s=0;o=0;b=0.00;n=0;d=2;dl=2;dc=0;

The pyrenees seem to be a sweet spot this time of year. I had a very bumpy ride across the top of some very bumpy stacks on my way back from Barca earlier this week. Sadly too high to see any action

[Convective]

I'd say updates and modifications to this are going to be necessary with the situation over the next few days. Anyhow, here's what I'm seeing during this evening and early tomorrow;

[Mokidugway]

1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

I remember when you sent me a picture of yourself with it..

Aye , just a puppy then 

[Summer Sun]

Severe thunderstorms possible tomorrow

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 27 May 2017 - 05:59 UTC Sun 28 May 2017

ISSUED 17:41 UTC Fri 26 May 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Aloft, a shortwave trough will track NE-wards on Saturday across the British Isles, atop an airmass of high WBPT. Some uncertainty remains about the exact convective evolution during this period, but we outline 3 potential rounds of notable convection:

... ELEVATED CONVECTION SATURDAY MORNING ...

It is likely that some elements of elevated deep convection will be present at the beginning of the forecast period over portions of Wales, SW + CS England. This will continue to migrate NE-wards during the morning hours, but with large uncertainty over coverage of lightning, and probably tending to fragment with time - hence some southern sections of the SLGT may remain lightning-free.

... SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION LATE MORNING / EARLY AFTERNOON ...

Early elevated convection may gradually become rooted in the boundary layer and / or new surface-based thunderstorms may develop as the trough axis continues to move NE through the day - this most likely to occur over northern and eastern England assuming there is sufficient preceding heating during Saturday morning. Large CAPE and sufficient shear would suggest the risk of large hail greater than 2.0cm in diameter, frequent lightning and strong, gusty winds will be possible with these storms, hence the inclusion of a SVR. However, it is worth noting not every location will necessarily be affected by a thunderstorm, but those that do occur have the potential to be severe. Given backed surface winds, some scope for a tornado will exist - but perhaps mitigated by relatively high cloud bases in general.

... SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING ...

Behind the trough axis, profiles become very dry aloft but with high dewpoint air remaining near the surface until the shallow cold front moves through later in the day. Provided some upper support and a return to strong insolation in the afternoon, a new round of surface-based thunderstorms will be possible - some perhaps severe. The exact location will be dependent on the eventual shape of the surface low over Northern Ireland, but general trends would suggest this potential new round of thunderstorms is most likely over northern England, perhaps moving into S Scotland by evening. These areas may require an upgrade to MDT given coverage from a couple round of thunderstorms, but given the uncertainties at present we will refrain for now. Farther south, very dry profiles and weaker upper forcing may limit the potential for any afternoon/evening thunderstorms.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-05-27

Edited May 26, 2017 by Summer Sun

[Chris K]

The SW best chances are in the early hours before the main activity kicks off later on Saturday further N and E. 

 

 

 

 

[Storm mad]

Looked at the met office weather warning for my area for late sunday and was quite inspired...followed by the bbc weather forcast to be met with u usual wafty graphics...although I understand detail is hard to pin down..their graphics really don't help...anyone else find this?...in any case good luck to everyone...hope u get some humdingers...oh now I've really jinxed it...

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Got to say it, this is looking nigh on a carbon copy of June 2012! Very similar charts and timings too. 

[Mapantz]

Just now, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Got to say it, this is looking nigh on a carbon copy of June 2012! Very similar charts and timings too. 

I was thinking the same thing!

There could be some fresh 'Hinckley Hail' videos on YouTube tomorrow. 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Just now, Mapantz said:

I was thinking the same thing!

There could be some fresh 'Hinckley Hail' videos on YouTube tomorrow. 

Hopefully! Although my friend who is from Burbage just next to Hinckley had to have his whole conservatory renewed as a result!! So a few thoughts will be spared if we do see things like that again! 

Now if the same thing happens just 30 miles further south, I will be going nutty!! It's going to be a long night tonight! 

[Chris.R]

Wow sferics nearby. Must be anaprop.

[Supacell]

A bit of agreement now between the high res models for tonight, although still some differences between them for tomorrow. Euro 4 has dropped its idea of a bone dry England.

[Supacell]

10 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Got to say it, this is looking nigh on a carbon copy of June 2012! Very similar charts and timings too. 

To be honest it does doesn't it. The early elevated storms in the SW moving NE and becoming surface based under ideal severe thunderstorm parameters whilst another round of storms develop over N England and push NE.

[Summer Sun]

Euro 4 is still struggling to give much main for most of England and Wales

 

[Supacell]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Euro 4 is still struggling to give much main for most of England and Wales

 

This is for late afternoon. Earlier on it shows some rain. It appears to move everything through a bit faster than some of the other models (hence it being dry by 3pm)

[Summer Sun]

Just now, Supacell said:

This is for late afternoon. Earlier on it shows some rain. It appears to move everything through a bit faster than some of the other models (hence it being dry by 3pm)

 

Oops thought I had it on the accumulation one