ancientsolar Posted May 26, 2017 Location: Blackwood SE Wales Location: Blackwood SE Wales Share Posted May 26, 2017 4 minutes ago, Mapantz said: Too busy to post screen grabs and info, but the MetO have issued numerous warnings. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings According to these warnings South Wales may not get a thing of this Low overnight ... Though I would only take this with a pinch of salt,. as have experienced storms develop over night!! ~ Then Sunday - Monday Wales is just about in it... but I have very rarely seen Storms come in from SE England to Wales... 2/10 of the time ... (Tries to remain positive) < PS I just want a good lightning show! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Summer Sun Posted May 26, 2017 Location: Darlington Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers Location: Darlington Share Posted May 26, 2017 Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 26 May 2017 - 05:59 UTC Sat 27 May 2017 ISSUED 09:12 UTC Fri 26 May 2017 ISSUED BY: Chris A large-scale upper trough will approach Ireland from the west during Friday and in combination with a ridge to the east, will help to pull in a moist, unstable airmass from the south. A pre-cold frontal trough is expected to move into western Ireland during the afternoon and in combination with daytime heating and SBCAPE of 500-800j/kg should be enough generate surface based thunderstorms that could quickly become quite electrically active (initiation of thunderstorms in the Irish slight area is expected between 15-16z). Otherwise more isolated embedded thunderstorms may cross Ireland from west to east as the cold front moves through during Friday evening. Overnight the cold front will continue to progress eastwards and an area of midlevel instability will spread out of France and across the Channel into southern/southwestern England towards the end of the night. MUCAPE of 600-800j/kg will move into the slight risk region in Britain towards the end of the night. Mid-level thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of Devon and Dorset around 02-03z on Saturday morning. This area of mid-level thunderstorms will continue NNW into Wales through the end of the night and into Saturday morning. An outlook for Saturday-daytime (post 06z) will be issued sometime on Friday. http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-05-26 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcus_surfer Posted May 26, 2017 Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL Weather Preferences: Storms & Snow. Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL Share Posted May 26, 2017 Radar watching and nowcasting folks. Those warnings are quite vague 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Nick F Posted May 26, 2017 Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work) Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work) Author Popular Post Share Posted May 26, 2017 Storm & Convective Forecast Issued 2017-05-26 10:34:00 Valid: 26/05/2017 06z to 27/05/2017 06z CONVECTIVE/STORM 2 DAY OUTLOOK - 26TH-27TH MAY 2017 Synopsis An upper-level trough to the west of the UK is forecast to only slowly advance east toward the British Isles over the next few days as it encounters a slowly weakening upper ridge extending north over mainland Europe. At the surface, a cold front will advance from the west across western EIRE tonight before continuing east across England and Wales during Saturday, tending to fracture as an area of low pressure develops across EIRE before tracking NE across Scotland. An increasingly moist and unstable airmass will be in place ahead of the cold front across the British Isles, contributing to moderate to strong instability which will be mostly capped until forcing for ascent from a short-wave trough arrives across the far west tonight and across all parts on Saturday into early Sunday. Elevated thunderstorms are possible across western EIRE this afternoon/evening, then the rest of EIRE, SW England and Wales early hours of Saturday. Then on Saturday, there is a broader risk of thunderstorms developing over parts of the UK, ahead of cold front advancing E and NE, with a MARGINAL or SLIGHT risk of severe weather associated with these storms. DAY 1 OUTLOOK – VALID UNTIL 06Z SATURDAY 27/05 … EIRE, WALES, SW ENGLAND … A plume of higher theta-e and steep lapse rates, associated with an Elevated Mixed Layer (EML) originating over NW Africa, will advect north across western British Isles this evening an overnight. This warm moist conveyor with steep lapse rates is forecast to destabilise later from the south with approach of shortwave trough ejecting NE, currently west of Iberia triggering storms off NW Spain and western Portugal. Elevated thunderstorms are possible across western parts of EIRE this afternoon and into the evening, before developing more widely across EIRE overnight, perhaps upscale into a MCS, then thunderstorms perhaps developing/arriving across SW England in the early hours of Saturday morning, before spreading north across parts of Wales too by breakfast time. There is a risk from these storms of heavy rainfall leading to flash-flooding, hail, gusty winds and also frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ DAY 2 OUTLOOK – VALID 06z SATURDAY 27/05 – 06z SUNDAY 28/05 … EIRE, N IRELAND, IRISH SEA, SCOTLAND … A Mesoscale Convective System or storm clusters maybe ongoing across parts of EIRE/N. Ireland and Irish Sea fringes of Wales and NW England on Saturday morning along slow-moving frontal boundary augmented by developing area of low pressure. This area of heavy rain and embedded t-storms is forecast to drift NE across Scotland into the afternoon, with other storms breaking out further SE away from this MCS, any storms bringing a risk of 20-30mm of rain in an hour less with heavy bursts and also a risk of hail, gusty winds and lightning. … ENGLAND and WALES … Warm moist conveyor / theta-e plume aloft will continue to spread N and NE across the England and Wales on Saturday morning ahead of cold front advancing from the west. Low-level moisture will increase too, perhaps dew point reaching 19-20C towards SE UK – which will yield impressively large CAPE values of 1000-1500 j/kg over this area by lunchtime. Heavy showers or thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing across SW England and Wales in the morning, these then spreading or developing in an arc that will shift north and east across England and Wales during the morning and into the early afternoon – as upper shortwave and attendant surface cold front advances NE. 40-50 knts SWly flow aloft and backed S to SEly flow at the surface in the unstable air ahead of cold front will yield 20-30 knts of deep layer shear which will be sufficient to sustain strong updrafts capable of large hail up to 1 inch in diameter, given large CAPE values indicated. Storm-relative helicity charts indicate the potential for a tornado too with any more discrete storms, though more linear mode of storm organisation modelled suggest this would be a very isolated/brief risk. Otherwise, storms may produce rainfall totals of 20-30mm or more locally – leading to a risk of flash-flooding and hazardous driving conditions, also a risk of isolated strong wind gusts and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. A SLIGHT risk area for all severe hazards is shown on the forecast map across central, northern and eastern England - where CAPE and forcing will be strongest. Issued by: Nick Finnis 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Summer Sun Posted May 26, 2017 Location: Darlington Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers Location: Darlington Share Posted May 26, 2017 (edited) Rain warnings out for various parts of the UK from today up to and including Monday some torrential downpours and thunderstorms likely http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings Edited May 26, 2017 by Summer Sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Summer Sun Posted May 26, 2017 Location: Darlington Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers Location: Darlington Share Posted May 26, 2017 (edited) Expect flooding in parts of the Midlands if WRF is right Meanwhile, Euro 4 is a bit different... Edited May 26, 2017 by Summer Sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Whitfield Posted May 26, 2017 Location: Plymouth Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms Location: Plymouth Share Posted May 26, 2017 Need a decent thunderstorm down here in the SW. Last chase i was on down here was back in 2015. I think it is time! Any help would be appreciated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gonzolio Martinez Posted May 26, 2017 Location: Norwich, Norfolk, UK Weather Preferences: Anything interesting - mostly storms or snow Location: Norwich, Norfolk, UK Share Posted May 26, 2017 Let's not forget, the GFS has a nasty habit of massively over-egging the CAPE values. I'm going to stay sceptical for the moment so my little heart doesn't get broken again Too many times I've seen great storm potential on the GFS evaporate in the 24 hours before the event. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattTarrant Posted May 26, 2017 Location: Ramsey, Minnesota (USA) Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/Snow/Hail & Strong Winds Location: Ramsey, Minnesota (USA) Share Posted May 26, 2017 19 minutes ago, Sam Whitfield said: Need a decent thunderstorm down here in the SW. Last chase i was on down here was back in 2015. I think it is time! Any help would be appreciated. To be fair, for the South West Quadrant it looks like storms may erupt in the small hours (ie 3/4 in the morning) perhaps lasting to around 7/8 in the morning. Destabilisation of the trough is also not nailed down with capping being an issue. For late Sunday/Sunday evening thundery action looks more likely the further east you travel. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dangerous55019 Posted May 26, 2017 Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales Weather Preferences: Foggy autumn days are the best! Although I does enjoy a good thunderstorm. Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales Share Posted May 26, 2017 This time last week I was more or less stood in the river Severn at Arley (don't ask - but photos can be proved upon request. Lol) and I can say that I noticed last Friday's storm breaking around me, and quite enjoyable it was too especially when it hit Anyway... At the moment here in North East Wales we've got azure blue skies but with a strong southerly breeze, which is just taking the edge off the temperatures. As others have said this is now gonna come down to nowcasting and radar watching. Again this looks for me like it could go either way... Very much a 50/50 event. I'm hoping, but also not getting my hopes up just incase, as I remember the 19th of July last year all too well... The cape and LI figures for my area wee just incredible, and all we had was just one poxy clap of thunder the following morning. But good luck to everyone out there with this thundery breakdown, and I hope it produces the goods for (if sadly not all of us) at least some of us I'll report back if and hopefully when something changes around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toggerob Posted May 26, 2017 Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District Share Posted May 26, 2017 I'm optimistic and pessimistic at the same time, as the 'non event' a few years still stands in my mind. I was down in Lincs at the time sat under 2000kj of CAPE that was forecast to break into violent storms from a passing cold-front, all the models showed it and all the forecasts predicted it. Yet in the end the worst of the weather was a brief 15min bit of rain from the cold front. Even when conditions are perfect and everything points at a 'go' nature still does what it wants. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted May 26, 2017 Location: Bexley (home), C London (work) Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms Location: Bexley (home), C London (work) Share Posted May 26, 2017 (edited) As I said I would, here is my (FOR FUN) shot at what I think the next 30 hours or so will hold storm wise. It is based primarily on probability, though have thrown in a severe line for added fun. It is based on what I think is likely to happen, courtesy of GFS, NMM, WRM and UKMO outputs. The top forecast is for the period Fri 18z to Sat 12z, while the second is Sat 12z to Sat 21z. Edited May 26, 2017 by Harry 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P-M Posted May 26, 2017 Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL Share Posted May 26, 2017 6 minutes ago, Harry said: As I said I would, here is my (FOR FUN) shot at what I think the next 30 hours or so will hold storm wise. It is based primarily on probability, though have thrown in a severe line for added fun. It is based on what I think is likely to happen, courtesy of GFS, NMM, WRM and UKMO outputs. The top forecast is for the period Fri 18z to Sat 12z, while the second is Sat 12z to Sat 21z. I'll take that second chart Harry thanking you! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mapantz Posted May 26, 2017 Location: Dorset Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk Location: Dorset Share Posted May 26, 2017 I'm quite liking the NetWx for tomorrow morning.. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mapantz Posted May 26, 2017 Location: Dorset Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk Location: Dorset Share Posted May 26, 2017 PS. Anyone for Sunday eve? 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lynxus Posted May 26, 2017 Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003 Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy. Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003 Share Posted May 26, 2017 (edited) Right then boyes! That time of year again and the next few days looks AWESOME! for potential. Potentially for some VERY nice storms in the east tomorrow evening if there is any ignition.. Not a "huge" amount of convergence going on though so i guess the front itself needs to trigger against the heat. Cant Wait for tomorrows Estofex forecast! Plz be a level2 over us.. They are rarely wrong for L2's Edited May 26, 2017 by Lynxus 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NUT Posted May 26, 2017 Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67 Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67 Share Posted May 26, 2017 Not convinced about a major storm outbreak up here to be honest. Most of the main energy seems to be gone by 3 tomorrow afternoon. Not saying we won't get any rain or thunder but probably nothing too major Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted May 26, 2017 Location: Bexley (home), C London (work) Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms Location: Bexley (home), C London (work) Share Posted May 26, 2017 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Mapantz said: PS. Anyone for Sunday eve? Ooohhh!!!!! I'm now planning to head down the coast Sunday afternoon and staying overnight. Will defo make sure my camera and video camera are charged Edited May 26, 2017 by Harry 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted May 26, 2017 Location: Bexley (home), C London (work) Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms Location: Bexley (home), C London (work) Share Posted May 26, 2017 10 minutes ago, Harry said: Ooohhh!!!!! I'm now planning to head down the coast Sunday afternoon and staying overnight. Will defo make sure my camera and video camera are charged This is what NMM is suggesting for convective precipitation early hours of Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stuart Posted May 26, 2017 Location: Nairn Location: Nairn Share Posted May 26, 2017 14 minutes ago, NUT said: Not convinced about a major storm outbreak up here to be honest. Most of the main energy seems to be gone by 3 tomorrow afternoon. Not saying we won't get any rain or thunder but probably nothing too major I would not worry about it not all ways to do about the energy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mokidugway Posted May 26, 2017 Share Posted May 26, 2017 TBH I see nothing but heavy convective rain from this in the north west as others have said will fizzle out ,usual suspects aren't placed to bad ,lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allseasons-Si Posted May 26, 2017 Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl) Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl) Share Posted May 26, 2017 Posted this in my regional thread when i thought i was viewing this one lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allseasons-Si Posted May 26, 2017 Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl) Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl) Share Posted May 26, 2017 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Mokidugway said: TBH I see nothing but heavy convective rain from this in the north west as others have said will fizzle out ,usual suspects aren't placed to bad ,lol lincolnshire Edited May 26, 2017 by Allseasons-si 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Whitfield Posted May 26, 2017 Location: Plymouth Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms Location: Plymouth Share Posted May 26, 2017 3 hours ago, MattTarrant said: To be fair, for the South West Quadrant it looks like storms may erupt in the small hours (ie 3/4 in the morning) perhaps lasting to around 7/8 in the morning. Destabilisation of the trough is also not nailed down with capping being an issue. For late Sunday/Sunday evening thundery action looks more likely the further east you travel. I will keep my fingers crossed in hope. About time we see a decent thunderstorm down here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckster Posted May 26, 2017 Location: Chelmsford, Essex Location: Chelmsford, Essex Share Posted May 26, 2017 'bout time the S-East got some storms last year was terrible for the number of storms 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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