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Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards


Nick F

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

Convective weather's forecast seems to indicate not much in the way of deep layer shear, however the charts I was looking at indicates that there is bundles of it. Have I been reading these charts wrong for the last 14 years? :cc_confused:

gfs_icape_eur21.thumb.png.54a5dfc50bc2501a3fa78c4a33e763d1.png

www.lightningwizard.com/maps

Maybe a strip across SW England where shear is weak but for most parts I am reading that as 60-80 knts. I would welcome being educated here.

.......

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 19 May 2017 - 05:59 UTC Sat 20 May 2017

ISSUED 04:07 UTC Fri 19 May 2017

ISSUED BY: null

largethumb_php.thumb.png.a541d65c86b28033c148cc7344408761.png

An upper trough will continue to slowly progress from west to east across the British Isles. Lapse rates will decrease across Ireland, but a weak occlusion could just trigger a few heavy showers with a low end lightning risk during the mid afternoon (mainly across central/southern Ireland)

However, instability and lapse rates will increase across the low risk area in southwestern Britain as the upper trough moves near. CAPE of around 500 j/kg and surface to 500mb lapses reaching into the low 40s will help to trigger scattered heavy showers. It is expected that a few of these showers will contain some small hail and typically infrequent lightning as storms will generally be pulse variety with very little shear present. 

www.convectiveweather.co.uk

Edited by Supacell
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 19 May 2017 - 05:59 UTC Sat 20 May 2017

ISSUED 04:07 UTC Fri 19 May 2017

ISSUED BY: null

An upper trough will continue to slowly progress from west to east across the British Isles. Lapse rates will decrease across Ireland, but a weak occlusion could just trigger a few heavy showers with a low end lightning risk during the mid afternoon (mainly across central/southern Ireland)

 

However, instability and lapse rates will increase across the low risk area in southwestern Britain as the upper trough moves near. CAPE of around 500 j/kg and surface to 500mb lapses reaching into the low 40s will help to trigger scattered heavy showers. It is expected that a few of these showers will contain some small hail and typically infrequent lightning as storms will generally be pulse variety with very little shear present. 

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-05-19

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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire

Just looked at the radar and some of those showers are intensifying really quickly. One near Yeovil went from nothing to a white blob within 10 minutes. 

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Posted
  • Location: Sherborne dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms. Warm weather. Not hot or cold weather.
  • Location: Sherborne dorset

Thunder East of Sherborne dorset

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Posted
  • Location: Sherborne dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms. Warm weather. Not hot or cold weather.
  • Location: Sherborne dorset

Mistake looked outside West of Sherborne. Will be over Sherborne soon

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Posted
  • Location: Sherborne dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms. Warm weather. Not hot or cold weather.
  • Location: Sherborne dorset

a brilliant storm many rumbles getting closer 

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Posted
  • Location: St Leonards-on-Sea, East Sussex. 81 metres asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms.
  • Location: St Leonards-on-Sea, East Sussex. 81 metres asl

Distant thunder now audible here in East Sussex

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Posted
  • Location: Sherborne dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms. Warm weather. Not hot or cold weather.
  • Location: Sherborne dorset

Now heavy hail

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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
  • Weather Preferences: Columus Bigus Convectivus
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl

Similar to yesterday......Loads of convection at mid level with bucket loads of gentle sheer

cells popping up everywhere...more hopeful this afternoon

edit.....and swifts

IMG_9359.thumb.JPG.ce391f3b69aea7dc3ebd59c541bc9294.JPG

 

Edited by Arnie Pie
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Posted
  • Location: Taunton Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: warm summers,gales, thunder lightning frosty mornings .
  • Location: Taunton Somerset

Had a beautiful storm in Taunton an hour ago, and now the clouds are building again , insects flying around feeling stuffy and humid . 

The sun has been out whilst the clouds have been building . I have had a look on netweather radar and I believe a heavy shower is on its way in the next 30 mins or so . 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

Can see the tops of the thunderstorms over Taunton here from the centre Bristol, which is basking in lovely warm sunshine.

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Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

I have just finished work but it is still cloudy and fairly cold here and so I think I will need to take a drive out if I want to see a storm. I'll monitor the situation and then make my decision. Some forecasts show tomorrow being the better day for storms around my area. It will also be better for chasing if they come off, Friday afternoon traffic and storm chasing do not mix well.

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Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming

It's so overcast here - I'm doubting if we're gonna get enough sun to kick things off. However, there seems to be activity working its way towards us so I'll stay positive and ready to head out and observe if things do happen...

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Posted
  • Location: Sturminster Newton (N. Dorset)
  • Weather Preferences: Fair Weather, Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Sturminster Newton (N. Dorset)

Nice storm here, not too many CGs, most of it was IC but good to hear some thunder again :)

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Posted
  • Location: St Leonards-on-Sea, East Sussex. 81 metres asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms.
  • Location: St Leonards-on-Sea, East Sussex. 81 metres asl
1 hour ago, SenlacJack said:

Distant thunder now audible here in East Sussex

False alarm, no sferics in the area.

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat Waves, Tornadoes.
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
1 minute ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

The Bristol Storm Shield in full swing today! ;)

Normal service then Ben!

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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire

A couple of pictures of the view to the north not long ago. 

IMG_0344.JPG

IMG_0351.JPG

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