Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 27th Feb onwards

[Supacell]

I was chasing the famed 28th June 2012 supercell, but unfortunately I got there too late to see it in its strongest phase. However, it was still a beast when I reached it. Had it not been for traffic I would have reached Sleaford in time for it to hit and drop a tornado (although no saying I would have actually seen it).

Chasing down/witnessing a tornado in the UK is very difficult as they generally do not last long and you have to be in exactly the right place at the right time. If you are not, then your chances of catching it with UK road networks and traffic is almost zilch. This will be my 14th year chasing and I have never seen a tornado, although I have witnessed three funnel clouds.

[A.J]

long live El Brumo!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

18 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Pretty sure I've never witnessed a super cell personally. Struggle to see a basic thunderstorm here.

I can still remember feeling so crap during that 2012 event...hopelessly watching the Midlands get battered when here we got zilch

I remember reading through the thread that morning, that the MCS looked like it was on a direct trajectory to the Cheshire area! Then all of a sudden it swerved off to the right. 

Still to this day kicking myself that I didn't head 30 miles up the road to sleaford to capture that tornado. Not enough footage of that on the net really. 

That storm over Manchester on July 1st 2015 was something to write home about though for you northwesterners! 

 

Back to now, there's a decent chance of some convection and a few storms towards the end of the week, finally! 

Edited May 9, 2017 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

I remember reading through the thread that morning, that the MCS looked like it was on a direct trajectory to the Cheshire area! Then all of a sudden it swerved off to the right. 

Still to this day kicking myself that I didn't head 30 miles up the road to sleaford to capture that tornado. Not enough footage of that on the net really. 

That storm over Manchester on July 1st 2015 was something to write home about though for you northwesterners! 

If they can swerve Cheshire they will swerve Cheshire lol

Didn't really get the full brunt of that 2015 storm. It erupted just S of here over Shrops and carried on developing overhead- I saw some stunning rapid convective development but areas further N got the main brunt.

[Mokidugway]

This was my last supercell in hanksville Utah in 2014 

IMG_0132.MOV

[Chris.R]

41 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Pretty sure I've never witnessed a super cell personally. Struggle to see a basic thunderstorm here.

I can still remember feeling so crap during that 2012 event...hopelessly watching the Midlands get battered when here we got zilch

 Tell me about it. I get so frustrated and jealous on days like that;  particularly that day. I remember going to bed that night really depressed.  

Edited May 9, 2017 by Chris.R

[Dami]

I had EL bedford last year, lovely direct hit. That'll do me. 

I took some vids on my phone and a few pics but couldn't really get out to get anything good.

[Windblade]

Thanks for all the replies and parting wisdom/stories. Really is a great read and I've picked up some good location tips.

As another poster mentioned, it's one thing chasing a storm, but trying to keep up with it/get ahead of it using the uk road network is another story entirely.

 

Edited May 9, 2017 by Windblade

[Andy Bown]

3 hours ago, ajpoolshark said:

long live El Brumo!

This will be the year of El Warmo!

Last year we had 4 excellent daytime storms which had they occurred overnight would have been spectacular. I'm hoping Mother Nature has adjusted her clock by 12 hours!

 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

2 hours ago, Andy Bown said:

This will be the year of El Warmo!

Last year we had 4 excellent daytime storms which had they occurred overnight would have been spectacular. I'm hoping Mother Nature has adjusted her clock by 12 hours!

 

Did we? 

[toggerob]

The 01 July 2015 Supercell was something else, I was in the perfect location along the dry-slot to it's SE to witness the structure and lightning from a relative dry-distance. The one and only time i've seen a funnel-cloud was outside my town north of the Goyt Valley where a storm was coming down from across Manchester to the North and NWRadar picked up the rotation perfectly. I only managed to see it for a minute or two before it became rain-wrapped again but it was something else.

I'm hoping this year is on-par with 2015, with many memorable plumes and storms that passed close by that year.

 

 

 

 

 

[Weather-history]

11 hours ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

That storm over Manchester on July 1st 2015 was something to write home about though for you northwesterners! 

 

 

Do you know, I wasn't that impressed by the storm. A lot of the thunder was at altitude and although I got a storm it wouldn't be up there with some past storms I have experienced. Maybe it was the thunder part of the storm that knocked it down the list.

Edited May 10, 2017 by Weather-history

[NO LONGER POSTING]

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Tomorrow's looking like a good day for us now with the potential for frontal, SB and/or imported storms...  

[Polar Maritime]

Yes the 1st July 2015 Cell really was something else, Here's a shot from my location.

Edited May 10, 2017 by Polar Maritime

[Supacell]

I am starting to show interest now in Thursday/Friday as the charts move out of what I call FI for storm charts. I am not a trained forecaster so the following is just my thoughts, and I will base these thoughts on deciding whether it is worth me chasing at all and if so, where I will need to go. This could be my first storm chase opportunity of 2017

Previously tomorrow was not looking overly impressive, with Friday being the better day but now it looks like potential is being upgraded somewhat.

The first signs of any activity will likely occur during the early hours of tomorrw as the warm front approaches from the south ahead of WAA. I doubt this will be anything more than just a few showers, with thundery activity at this stage remaining off-shore. Anyhow, there could be some rain along the south coast by this time tomorrow. As this warm front moves north it will tend to decay somewhat but still bring in that warmer, humid air from the south. Behind this front is where any sunshine should lift temperatures up to around 18-20c, which may not seem that high but with dewpoints in the region of 10-12c I think it will feel much warmer than it has done.

In then looks like the warm front regenerates as sunshine breaks through tomorrow afternoon. Currently the GFS, WRF and NMM seem in more or less agreement with areas through the far SE, London, South Midlands and across to Shropshire being affected by this. The following charts are from the NMM. The first is the MUCAPE, I particularly like using this as it combines details of CAPE from all levels. The second is the precipitation chart, which shows a line of activity across the middle of England and into Wales by mid-afternoon. There looks to also be some wind convergence along this line. It is worth noting that the Euro4 does not currently think anything more than a few spots of rain will develop here.

    

Later tomorrow a small trough looks to approach from the continent into the south coast, this area will now be under the warm plume and this is likely to be thundery as it moves into the UK. This appears on all the charts I have seen, including the Euro4. Currently the highest CAPE looks to be across the south-east and so I would expect most of the activity to occur here but this is not to say it could not turn thundery anywhere along the south coast late tomorrow. Overnight into Friday this pushes northwards and loses some of its energy but may still contain some embedded thundery activity, this more likely along the eastern side as in the chart below.

Throughout all of this deep layer shear is fairly weak and so the likelihood of severe weather would seem low. However, there could be quite a bit of rainfall and some small hail and so flooding may be a probability. The chart below shows the latest thoughts from the NMM4 regarding precipitation. This is a freeze of 3pm in the afternoon on Thursday. It also shows the hit and miss nature of the storms, therefore not everyone will see one even if you are sat under the main risk area.

Onto Friday and it looks like the overnight rain will be clearing away to the north. By this stage it will likely just be a band of showery rain although this could reinvigorate somewhat during the afternoon. Behind this, the sun should come out and this could then lead to more heavy showers and thunderstorms. The area at risk is more widespread on Friday than on Thursday but this will still be dependant on how quickly early rain and residual cloud can clear. At the moment Friday is a bit far off to really go into detail but currently it looks like areas from Yorkshire southwards are most at risk. Much like Thursday, there will be little wind shear and so organised/severe storms are unlikely, but there could be some briefly quite potent storms with torrential rain, hail and gusty winds.

(The charts I have used are all from the Netweather Extra suite of charts)

Speaking of good storms in the past. If you can remember, cast your minds back 11 years to this very day in 2006 when a strong MCS developed around Reading and spread westwards across C-S England into South Wales.

 

 

[Stuart]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 11 May 2017 - 05:59 UTC Fri 12 May 2017

ISSUED 05:01 UTC Wed 10 May 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

WAA regime will continue into Thursday as a surface warm front lifts north across England and Wales. As a result, showery outbreaks of rain from primarily medium/high cloud will continue to nudge northwards in a rather sporadic / erratic fashion, with some embedded elevated convection possible given destabilisation of higher WBPT plume as the Biscay upper trough approaches - some sporadic, localised lightning is possible, but unlikely to be too widespread given marginal instability.

 

Behind this front, increasing insolation over southern England during the afternoon hours may allow surface-based deep convection to occur late afternoon into Thursday evening, given heating of this higher WBPT airmass, surface convergence and the approach of the Biscay upper trough. Question marks remain over the extent of the cloud cover, which may act as an inhibitor - however, the vast majority of NWP guidance still develop some thunderstorms, if rather isolated in some cases. A SLGT has been issued to highlight the areas at risk, with perhaps some small hail from the most active cells and a risk of localised flash flooding. Additional thunderstorms may also be advected from France / develop in-situ over the Channel towards S/SE England in the evening, but perhaps weakening as they do so.

 

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-05-11

 

[A.J]

a couple of good links for checking sferic activity and storm track should they occur

http://www.lightningmaps.org/?lang=en#m=sat;r=0;t=3;s=0;o=0;b=;n=0;

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=radar;sess=

[Windblade]

9 hours ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

The 01 July 2015 Supercell was something else, I was in the perfect location along the dry-slot to it's SE to witness the structure and lightning from a relative dry-distance. The one and only time i've seen a funnel-cloud was outside my town north of the Goyt Valley where a storm was coming down from across Manchester to the North and NWRadar picked up the rotation perfectly. I only managed to see it for a minute or two before it became rain-wrapped again but it was something else.

I'm hoping this year is on-par with 2015, with many memorable plumes and storms that passed close by that year.

 

 

 

 

 

Beautiful.

[Windblade]

Yes, things are certainly looking more promising the next couple of days. Hoping we get a good night time storm (some powerful imports wouldn't go amiss). Eyes on the skies...

Edited May 10, 2017 by Windblade

[Harry]

5 hours ago, Polar Maritime said:

Yes the 1st July 2015 Cell really was something else, Here's a shot from my location.

This storm really was something else. After a baking hot immensely humid day, the 2,500 - 3,000 J/Kg was realised across C/N England. I watched the videos as they came through along with Blitzortung going ape.  Alas, the cap held firm down my way so I just sat melting under clear skies. 

[Marcus_surfer]

Ive found the best site to track thunderstorms is this one

http://en.blitzortung.org/live_lightning_maps.php?map=10

You can custom zoom on certain areas, used with netweather extra radar its perfect combo

Edited May 10, 2017 by Marcus_surfer

[Windblade]

I prefer lightningmaps.org myself. It uses the data from blitz but also has a live sound effect option so you can hear a click each time there's a strike. Useful if you have your eyes off the screen. It also zooms a lot further down and has a lot more options. I still use blitz as well though, along with netweathers own radar, as netweathers rather usefully tracks rainfall and not just strikes so you can see the shape of cells and identify key features. You can also rewind it in five minute increments so you can see how fast a system is moving and in what direction.

Edited May 10, 2017 by Windblade

[Hodgheg]

I'm just looking forward to the possibility of seeing cloud that isn't stratus! 

[Darren Bown]

I remember September 2016 having a massive storm across NW England that moved into Yorkshire and NE England one late evening. That flooded central Manchester and saw some amazing lightning to my east.