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Storm Doris - Atlantic Storm 4


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All the talk so far has mostly been about the wind, but the snow that I might get looks impressive. BBC say 5-10cm but you can usually add another inch and a bit to the actual total... Bring it on! 

Windspeeds look dangerous for you folk in central England, but wouldn't be as bad if it was up here in Scotland. Strange to think that tbh...

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This is a close call - go to about 25 seconds in.  

One positive then.

METEOSAT airmass imagery frames for today show  nicely the development from frontal wave into a depression, with baroclinic leaf forming as dry air intrusion (in red) originating from the lower strato

Posted Images

On 21/02/2017 at 23:15, Fiona Robertson said:

Thanks anyway,I think I'm beginning to see what's going on. The piccie of the St Jude storm with the big black dry area over Denmark has helped.Am I right to think that the wee tip curling into the black area,the very centre of the system, is the sting jet?

The sting jet in the image is just beyond the little curl of white cloud. The dry, cold air descending evaporates the cloud head and gives it the cut off look rather than the traditional swiss roll type spiral banding. A diagram here explains the process and where to look. Open in a new tab and enlarge for easier to read text.

5f033c7069396a2668af8e736e15d049.png

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1017/S1350482704001379/pdf

On 21/02/2017 at 23:49, weirpig said:

Quick look at the arpege really turns up the wind speeds. Some area could hit over 90 mph. Let's hope not

Looks nasty!

ARPEGE over egged the pudding, leading to our red warning a couple of weeks back but it is usually a very reliable model for this type of extreme wind event.

Edited by Nouska
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A closer look at the aperge shows how severe this storm could become. No need for a ref vote we will be part of Europe like it or not 90 mph plus 70to 80 over a large area 

IMG_0480.PNG

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45 minutes ago, Nouska said:

The sting jet in the image is just beyond the little curl of white cloud. The cold air descending evaporates the cloud head and gives it the cut off look rather than the traditional swiss roll type spiral banding. A diagram here explains the process and where to look. Open in a new tab and enlarge for easier to read text.

5f033c7069396a2668af8e736e15d049.png

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1017/S1350482704001379/pdf

Looks nasty!

ARPEGE over egged the pudding, leading to our red warning a couple of weeks back but it is usually a very reliable model for this type of extreme wind event.

Right, I think I'm beginning to understand what's going on. Now all I have to do is work out the why. Thank you!

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I also just took some time to stand in the blustery winds outside and I must say it did feel refreshing after months of stagnant like weather. As such I am looking forward to the next few days and the incoming weather. Besides my excitement though, I do hope that everyone stays alert and safe because the strength of the winds are looking quite significant from as early as rush hour traffic on Thursday morning.

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On to the Arpege 0z...

I make this around 90 mph gust wise slamming into NW England

arpegeuk-11-35-0.png?22-05

arpegeuk-11-36-0.png?22-05

It then follows through into the E Midlands mid afternoon

arpegeuk-11-38-0.png?22-05

 

I think it will be down to the hi res models the UKMO use as to whether a red warning goes live later on for coastal areas. If they see 90 mph gusts then one will be issued, if not then it'll probably stay as amber.

Edited by CreweCold
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On to the Arome hi res...

aromehd-11-35-0.png?22-05

aromehd-11-36-0.png?22-05

aromehd-11-37-0.png?22-05

 

Similar areas at risk to GFS and Arpege...gusts not showing as high as Arpege however. 60-70 mph fairly common place even inland across NW England and N Midlands. Perhaps touching 75-80 mph as the system tracks off towards the E of the UK in the afternoon.

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1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

The areas currently under greatest threat looks similiar to the areas that were badly hit by that great gale of early January 1976. I hope it is not as bad as this storm.

Yep the day I was born parents said it was a nightmare 

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23 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

I wish they wouldn't use that phrase! I'd rather they stuck to "explosive cyclogenesis", even if people don't fully understand it. Anything with the word "bomb" is too sensationalist.

Is Doris likely to undergo EC, by the way? Or do we just have to wait and see?

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