Storm Doris - Atlantic Storm 4

[Fiona Robertson]

Ok, I'm beginning to think I'm dumber than I thought I was. I've read all the links given on the sting jet, I've looked it up and I still can't wrap my head around it. I just can't grasp it. The diagrams I've looked at have just confused me more. Is there anyone out there who can explain this to me?

[cowdog]

1 hour ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

6z Arpege a touch further north showing a very tight gradient to Doris with gusts on this run around 80-90mph cutting across N England through some heavily populated areas, potential for significant disruption from this one! 

 

Just what I didn't want. The angle that this will pass is already likely to make the winds to be coming from the worst possible direction for us, and now its looking possible we could have the worst winds. This really has the hallmarks of being a very nasty storm for us, especially given the trees have started to form buds.

[Nouska]

6 minutes ago, Fiona Robertson said:

Ok, I'm beginning to think I'm dumber than I thought I was. I've read all the links given on the sting jet, I've looked it up and I still can't wrap my head around it. I just can't grasp it. The diagrams I've looked at have just confused me more. Is there anyone out there who can explain this to me?

Pictorially, storm Angus had a very striking sting in his tail.

[knocker]

41 minutes ago, Fiona Robertson said:

Ok, I'm beginning to think I'm dumber than I thought I was. I've read all the links given on the sting jet, I've looked it up and I still can't wrap my head around it. I just can't grasp it. The diagrams I've looked at have just confused me more. Is there anyone out there who can explain this to me?

You could try this webcast

http://www.eumetrain.org/resources/sting_jets_2012.html

Edited February 21, 2017 by knocker

[Supacell]

Looks like the first real interesting weather of the year for these parts. The GFS 12z slightly delays it as compared to the 06z which has the effect of it deepening more over our shores than out over the North Sea. The strongest winds from Doris still look to be off the east coast through the afternoon. Wind gusts look to be in the region of 60-70mph across a swathe of N England and the N Midlands, plenty strong enough for some disruption but nothing too out of the ordinary. It will come as a bit of a shock though after what has been a very quiet Autumn/Winter for wind events.

[weirpig]

4 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Looks like the first real interesting weather of the year for these parts. The GFS 12z slightly delays it as compared to the 06z which has the effect of it deepening more over our shores than out over the North Sea. The strongest winds from Doris still look to be off the east coast through the afternoon. Wind gusts look to be in the region of 60-70mph across a swathe of N England and the N Midlands, plenty strong enough for some disruption but nothing too out of the ordinary. It will come as a bit of a shock though after what has been a very quiet Autumn/Winter for wind events.

Your right not to out of the ordinary. But the areas it may effect  those types of winds are quite rare inland 

[Cheshire Freeze]

8 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Your right not to out of the ordinary. But the areas it may effect  those types of winds are quite rare inland 

The 12z GFS funnels winds down the Cheshire gap. From experience, when this happens it's about the nastiest wind direction you can get for here and causes all sorts of havoc

Even what appears to be a moderate breeze from that direction here can be very gusty

Edited February 21, 2017 by CreweCold

[Matty M]

Doris now moving into the window of the HIRES models so we shall see how much of a sting it has. Looks set to 'bomb' around 35hPa in 24 hours.

It really is progged to deepen very rapidly and when it begins this phase will determine where is worst affected. I believe it may begin to bomb sooner than low res models currently predict. It is disappointing that the region the storm is coming from is so data sparse. You would hope that we would have had deep ocean buoys at this stage. Hopefully satellite data will be sufficient to give the HIRES model the correct initial conditions and not lead to too many surprises.

[Matty M]

Looks very bad for NW England. Mersey /Wirral getting a hammering. Poss. 85/90mph gusts along coast.

And as it exits into North Sea lee mountain gusting could bring some very damaging gusts to East Yorkshire 

Edited February 21, 2017 by Matty M

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Matty M said:

Looks very bad for NE England. Mersey /Wirral getting a hammering. Poss. 85/90mph gusts along coast.

At face value, if that 12z GFS is close to the mark, I suspect 80 mph would be hit here.

[WillinGlossop]

Hirlam/arpege high res models have snow and strongest winds a bit further south than gfs....lookslike on those two far north of england (high ground) 30-40cm....

[knocker]

40 minutes ago, knocker said:

You could try this webcast

http://www.eumetrain.org/resources/sting_jets_2012.html

I've just watched that through again and it's an excellent explanation as you would expect of course. Having said that there is nothing simple about this.

Edited February 21, 2017 by knocker

[weirpig]

10 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:

Hirlam/arpege high res models have snow and strongest winds a bit further south than gfs....lookslike on those two far north of england (high ground) 30-40cm....

Wow the Arpege brings it quite a bit south  

[cheshireoak]

80mph would definitely be lively for this part of the world. In set ups like this I've noticed areas of increased wind speed embedded in the flow-almost like micro-burst (stings?) that knock down trees or take the top out of  Oaks in a definite line across the countryside. Back in the day I was sad enough to plot these on an OS map and check the bearings (!)-typically it appears to be associated with a NW or WNW flow just behind a cold front. The charts for Thursday look like a similar set up for this sort of situation.

 

Edit-Just spotted Weirpig's post-is that the sort of short term variation in track that we were talking about previously!

Edited February 21, 2017 by cheshireoak

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, cheshireoak said:

80mph would definitely be lively for this part of the world. In set ups like this I've noticed areas of increased wind speed embedded in the flow-almost like micro-burst (stings?) that knock down trees or take the top out of  Oaks in a definite line across the countryside. Back in the day I was sad enough to plot these on an OS map and check the bearings (!)-typically it appears to be associated with a NW or WNW flow just behind a cold front. The charts for Thursday look like a similar set up for this sort of situation.

Yep, my experiences are the same. As I said, that wind direction is a destructive one for these parts.

[knocker]

Doris at midday tomorrow. After that a satellite vigil?

Edited February 21, 2017 by knocker

[ciel]

16 minutes ago, knocker said:

I've just watched that through again and it's an excellent explanation as you would expect of course.

For info, which is a pity.    The webcast appears to be incompatible with mac OS.X - the sound is completely distorted.

The powerpoint summaries are readable and informative , though.

[knocker]

1 minute ago, ciel said:

For info, which is a pity.    The webcast appears to be incompatible with mac OS.X - the sound is completely distorted.

The powerpoint summaries are readable and informative , though.

Yes that is a pity as it is good talk on not a simple subject.

[toggerob]

I can't stress enough just how dangerous a sting-jet can be for anyone unfamiliar with the phenomenon, it was around 4 or 5 years ago the Peak District took the full-force of one with +95mph gusts and there's still damage locally that shows just how dangerous it was. Forests flanking the hillsides around the Goyt were completely flattened across acres, and the sound was similar to a heavy-goods train passing overhead for a good two hours.

[weirpig]

31 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Yep, my experiences are the same. As I said, that wind direction is a destructive one for these parts.

I expect if it takes a track like the aperge winds will be funnelling down through the Cheshire gap  perhaps even amplifying it more? 

[weirpig]

Ecm similar track I think to the aperge strong winds again across the spine of the country 

[iand61]

2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Ecm similar track I think to the aperge strong winds again across the spine of the country 

Mmmmmm looks like it could be a bit blowy in my neck of the woods on the Western Pennines and I've only just repaired fence panels from the strong easterly winds of the weekend before last.

[The PIT]

LOL local forecast back up 59mph. We shall see.

[Chris.R]

 Looks like it's batten down the hatches here then. Luckily I have quite a sheltered garden. Don't even think there were any trees blown over around the immediate area back in Feb 2014. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

BBC weather showing wind gusts at 61 mph for here at the moment.

Should be interesting to see how this one develops.