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Storm Doris - Atlantic Storm 4


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This is a close call - go to about 25 seconds in.  

One positive then.

METEOSAT airmass imagery frames for today show  nicely the development from frontal wave into a depression, with baroclinic leaf forming as dry air intrusion (in red) originating from the lower strato

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2 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

Sorry to ask this...is the dry area signigicant and how?

It is usually a precursor to rapid cyclogenesis - the sudden intensification that will occur in Doris.

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2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Beautiful image!

58ae2f05567b6_2017-02-23(1).thumb.png.f49091793f5b02f7af9fc66372fc436f.png

Doris is looking pretty nasty. The dry air intrusion is a precursor to the possible development of a sting jet. The latest Arpege run is now going for 160+ kph gusts for western Ireland, as the model attempts to resolve the sting jet within the next few hours I believe. Looks like a Shapiro-Keyser type cyclone with a warm-cored seclusion to me. 150 kph gusts on the cards for the Irish Sea and Liverpool Bay area too. 

Screen Shot 2017-02-22 at 23.58.35.png

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6 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

Looking at the gust forecast from UKMO, they now think the strongest winds will be further south 

A few 50's and 51's showing up on their forecast for my location now. I'm aching to break my station record! viannen_85.gif

Edited by Mapantz
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23 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Beautiful image!

58ae2f05567b6_2017-02-23(1).thumb.png.f49091793f5b02f7af9fc66372fc436f.png

Classic looking RACY there with very well-defined dry slot intrusion.

Some impressive rates of SLP drop in stations in Ireland - up to 9mb in last 3 hours.

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8 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

A few 50's and 51's showing up on their forecast for my location now. I'm aching to break my station record! viannen_85.gif

Gusts in the high 40's showing most of the day here with a 50 and 52 in there. Weren't any in the 50's earlier. 

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Just to warn anyone with FB, 'Doris' is one of the trends and the usual scammers are out the plaguing people's posts with iffy-links. I've had to resort to sharing the details on Doris privately as in the space of 5 minutes I had 7 of these scammers bombarding the post and out of nowhere too.

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Slight downgrade up here for the windspeed according to local Met Office forecast but those automated ones should be taken with a pinch of salt. Non the less it possibly looks like old Doris could track a bit further south than expected. Hopefully she will edge another 150-200 miles south and I will be in the snow :laugh:

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http://www.mwis.org.uk/english-welsh-forecast/PD/

Strong wording being issued by MWIS for today...Showers. Storm or hurricane force upland winds. Rain/snow clearing..Expect walking to be arduous at best although in morning very difficult conditions indeed: any mobility tortuous and wind chill severe. Temporary whiteout possible.

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49 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

Looking at the gust forecast from UKMO, they now think the strongest winds will be further south 

 

43 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

A few 50's and 51's showing up on their forecast for my location now. I'm aching to break my station record! viannen_85.gif

 

33 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Gusts in the high 40's showing most of the day here with a 50 and 52 in there. Weren't any in the 50's earlier. 

 

27 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Slight downgrade up here for the windspeed according to local Met Office forecast but those automated ones should be taken with a pinch of salt. Non the less it possibly looks like old Doris could track a bit further south than expected. Hopefully she will edge another 150-200 miles south and I will be in the snow :laugh:


Same indication of a slightly southward shift going by the local forecast for here too; actually indicating 6 hours of 50-56mph gusts from the ukmo (to 1 hour of 50+ from the prior run). Not sure I'm seeing that correlate with the center of the low being much off forecast track though? 

I guess at least we don't have long to find out how this plays out!

Edited by Rob Walker
missed out a number value
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IR satellite corresponds with the surface-pressure forecast issued by the MetO with the center approaching Belmullet at this time, Doris is still on-track imho and with pressure gradients falling -9mb p/h as expected. 3 hours from now the higher gusts will begin to crank up across the Irish Sea.

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8 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

IR satellite corresponds with the surface-pressure forecast issued by the MetO with the center approaching Belmullet at this time, Doris is still on-track imho and with pressure gradients falling -9mb p/h as expected. 3 hours from now the higher gusts will begin to crank up across the Irish Sea.

Just had a quick look back at the 1am updates; looks like the M4 bouy 62093 (to the north) had 2mb lower slp than Belmullet at 981mb 

Edited by Rob Walker
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Doris is now on RADAR offshore Belmullet, Ireland. Wind gusts haven't quite reached surface-level yet but evident on RADAR is the mid-layer windshearing of the cold-front, with storm-cells trying to initialize but the tops being forced ahead of themselves with sustained 90-100mph winds at FL100. Excuse the shoddy mspaint job it was a quick-draw to show the cells being sheared upwind of the center.

Untitled.thumb.jpg.9f5e06d7c0c8ba1526f81c8eddf366d1.jpg

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