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Storm Doris - Atlantic Storm 4


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This is a close call - go to about 25 seconds in.  

One positive then.

METEOSAT airmass imagery frames for today show  nicely the development from frontal wave into a depression, with baroclinic leaf forming as dry air intrusion (in red) originating from the lower strato

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12 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

18z has a slight downgrade on the top wind speeds (still a significant storm for central parts)

18_15_windvector_gust.png?cb=34518_18_windvector_gust.png?cb=34518_21_windvector_gust.png?cb=34518_24_windvector_gust.png?cb=345

No offence to you, but the GFS has seemed reluctant on bringing more widespread gales across the country. The Hi - Res Models like Arome & Arpege have been set on bringing widespread 50 - 60mph with occasional above and the stronger phase of widely 70mph maybe 80mph. This ties with the Met Office.

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This would have been a good couple of days to have been in Leadhills or Wanlockhead by the look of things. Currently the calm before the snow storm hopefully on the village webcam at the Hopetoun Arms at 400m:

leadhills-2017_02_22_21.thumb.jpeg.df2a16ff65a19d0294d05505a84c486e.jpeg

Updating image: http://www.winterhighland.info/cams/lowtherhill/

Don't expect to see much on the webcams actually on top of Lowther Hill tomorrow - the batteries are rather flat after too much dull weather recently and the wind will be blasting the snow straight at the cameras even if they come on (and as they work of a battery / solar combo de-icing heating is a bit minimal by necessity).

 

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18 minutes ago, MKN said:

Does anyone know if there Is there any live streaming cams within the zone expected to get the heaviest snowfall?

Pop over to the Scottish thread I think there is a link there 

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Beginning to think this storm will be stronger for Ireland than anticipated. Deepening sooner and faster than pronged. I fear widespread infrastructural damage from Mayo to Dublin commencing 1am in west

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12 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

Can see the very dry air here too on the Water Vapour WV imagery (dark areas) http://eumetview.eumetsat.int/mapviewer/ 

dorisWV2202.png

Quite a well-developed cloud head on the low now looking at most recent airmass imagery, indicative perhaps of the low now moving into the left exit of the jet streak and now starting RACY?

seviri_nat_airmass_20170222_2200.thumb.png.9355b7d5f06fd6eca2ba94e533b64515.png

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4 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Quite a well-developed cloud head on the low now looking at most recent airmass imagery, indicative perhaps of the low now moving into the left exit of the jet streak and now starting RACY?

seviri_nat_airmass_20170222_2200.thumb.png.9355b7d5f06fd6eca2ba94e533b64515.png

Like the image....but quite concerned about sting je potential for my area

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6 minutes ago, inghams85 said:

What's your take on the possible sting jet Jo?

It's still possible, It will also be worth watching the Norfolk coast, that seems to get slammed with the forecast gales for a while.

 The Met office are slightly tuning down the winds a shade, shaving a sliver off the top end now. But still variations in the models that it is not totally convincing

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1 minute ago, Matty M said:

Beginning to think this storm will be stronger for Ireland than anticipated. Deepening sooner and faster than pronged. I fear widespread infrastructural damage from Mayo to Dublin commencing 1am in west

Just looking at that on the ARPEGE but the slower to come out (much higher-res 1.3km) AROME is not being nearly as aggressive. The zoom function is way behind - all very slow tonight.

2453_mjj6.png   aromehd-11-10-0_tmt5.png

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6 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

It's still possible, It will also be worth watching the Norfolk coast, that seems to get slammed with the forecast gales for a while.

 The Met office are slightly tuning down the winds a shade, shaving a sliver off the top end now. But still variations in the models that it is not totally convincing

Thank you. So looking like a standard winter storm now then. At least people can rest assured on 50-60mph winds. I think I'll take the van out to work now

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All signs point to high impact event for Lancs, north Wales, exposed parts of north Midlands. Take this one seriously, it is going to deepen over British Isles rather than out in the ocean. Sting jet discussion somewhat academic, it has all the dynamics necessary to create very strong gusts, sting jet or no sting jet. Current location about 54N 13W. 

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