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Storm Doris - Atlantic Storm 4


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Storm Doris is the 4th named storm by the met office and it will arrive on Thursday bringing heavy rain strong winds and snow

An amber warning out

Issued at: 10:31 on Tue 21 Feb 2017

Valid from: 06:00 on Thu 23 Feb 2017

Valid to: 18:00 on Thu 23 Feb 2017

Some very strong winds are expected throughout Thursday in association with storm 'Doris', with a short period where gusts of 70 to 80 mph are possible. Whilst the strongest winds look to be only short-lived, damage to structures, interruptions to power supplies and widespread disruption to travel networks are likely, with a danger of injury from flying debris. Heavy rain is also likely through Thursday as well as some snow over high ground as the system clears eastwards. These may prove additional hazards.

A developing area of low pressure is expected to move across the UK on Thursday. The exact timing and track of this system remain uncertain but there is potential for a short-lived core of very strong winds to develop. Whilst some disruption is expected outside of this stronger swathe of winds, the amber area looks most likely to see more significant disruption.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1487808000&regionName=uk

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Edited by Summer Sun
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This is a close call - go to about 25 seconds in.  

One positive then.

METEOSAT airmass imagery frames for today show  nicely the development from frontal wave into a depression, with baroclinic leaf forming as dry air intrusion (in red) originating from the lower strato

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2 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Funny as soon as the warnings come local forecast downgrades the wind speeds.

That's exactly what I was thinking for where I am (Mansfield). It said gusts to 57mph on Met Office up to the warning being issued, now down to 51. Strange. I am certainly hoping for the latter!

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Doris still could vary with her path and the timing of when she deepens, it is the rapidly deepening phase which causes the most concerns, if this happens out in the NOrth Sea, the worst misses the Uk and often hits denmark or Netherlands. The low could be a bit furhter north or south. Unlikely to get snow for southern Britain

 

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8 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

Doris still could vary with her path and the timing of when she deepens, it is the rapidly deepening phase which causes the most concerns, if this happens out in the NOrth Sea, the worst misses the Uk and often hits denmark or Netherlands. The low could be a bit furhter north or south. Unlikely to get snow for southern Britain


Thank you Jo.  I was thinking about the winds really.  I am travelling to East London on Thursday at around 6pm.  Driving.  But I think all will be fine :)

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Tim M said:

Hi Jo,

When would we know about when and where the deepening will take place, or is it a case of wait and see on the day?

 

through Wednesday night, watching the satellite imagery (Infra red and Water Vapour) and then the obs at sea in near Altantic and as it moves over Ireland. Before that, it will only be if its heading the otherway, less of an event, we'll get clues. At the mo, it has all the signs that it could undergo significant development over the UK and that includes possible explosive cyclogenesis, when extreme winds are drawn down from the stratosphere as a low pressure rapidly deepens. The area at risk of this is generally small and very tricky to define, even closer to the time. 

Go Doris

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36 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

First time i can recall being under an Amber warning for wind

Last time we were well inside an amber warning for wind like this was Feb 2014. Parts of coastal NW England had a red warning for wind. Won't forget that day in a hurry.

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Just now, CreweCold said:

Last time we were well inside an amber warning for wind like this was Feb 2014. Parts of coastal NW England had a red warning for wind. Won't forget that day in a hurry.

was that when your station roof blew off?

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1 minute ago, weirpig said:

was that when your station roof blew off?

Yep, that was the one. Trees down all over the show too. It was like a constant roar outside, even when you thought you weren't in the midst of the strongest gusts. In the top 10 of my life time weather highlights anyway.

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Just now, CreweCold said:

Last time we were well inside an amber warning for wind like this was Feb 2014. Parts of coastal NW England had a red warning for wind. Won't forget that day in a hurry.

 

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

For west midlands to be under a Amber warning is also very rare  never really that bad this far inland.

But it is the risk of explosive cyclogenesis and/or a sting jet as the low deepens, maybe over the UK, which brings this Amber warning, inland as well as by the coasts. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/2/p/Sting_Jet_Flyer.PDF 

 

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4 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

through Wednesday night, watching the satellite imagery (Infra red and Water Vapour) and then the obs at sea in near Altantic and as it moves over Ireland. Before that, it will only be if its heading the otherway, less of an event, we'll get clues. At the mo, it has all the signs that it could undergo significant development over the UK and that includes possible explosive cyclogenesis, when extreme winds are drawn down from the stratosphere as a low pressure rapidly deepens. The area at risk of this is generally small and very tricky to define, even closer to the time. 

Go Doris

It is interesting that some days ago when this possible storm first looked a danger, at the time the track was of course different, both the gfs and ecm were indicating explosive cyclogenesis before later reconsidering it.

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Well having experienced the sting jet of '87 i do hope that Doris is kind to life and property. Looking like a very deep low developing though.

Anyone got any details on what the pressure was in '87 prior to the tail passing overland.

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Looks like North West and North Midlandss could get this one straight in the teeth! My part of the world in East Cheshire has got away with it over the last few years so it could be our turn. Can't see this storm do anything other than deepen, the tricky fly in the ointment could be short term variations in track especially as it looks like a small and tight feature-will be putting away and tying down tomorrow!

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