Storm Doris - Atlantic Storm 4

[Nick F]

Pretty impressive pressure drop in last 3 hours in NW Ireland, some 7-8mb?

 

[BurntFishTrousers]

28 minutes ago, knocker said:

I'm assuming rapid cyclogenesis.

You assume correctly.

[toggerob]

Aberdaron already getting a 60mph gust this hour 

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

[Frosty hollows]

Sorry to ask this...is the dry area signigicant and how?

[Mapantz]

2 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

Sorry to ask this...is the dry area signigicant and how?

It is usually a precursor to rapid cyclogenesis - the sudden intensification that will occur in Doris.

[Mapantz]

Beautiful image!

[Toadinthehole99]

2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Beautiful image!

Doris is looking pretty nasty. The dry air intrusion is a precursor to the possible development of a sting jet. The latest Arpege run is now going for 160+ kph gusts for western Ireland, as the model attempts to resolve the sting jet within the next few hours I believe. Looks like a Shapiro-Keyser type cyclone with a warm-cored seclusion to me. 150 kph gusts on the cards for the Irish Sea and Liverpool Bay area too. 

[ChezWeather]

Looking at the gust forecast from UKMO, they now think the strongest winds will be further south 

[Mapantz]

6 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

Looking at the gust forecast from UKMO, they now think the strongest winds will be further south 

A few 50's and 51's showing up on their forecast for my location now. I'm aching to break my station record! 

Edited February 23, 2017 by Mapantz

[nsrobins]

23 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Beautiful image!

Classic looking RACY there with very well-defined dry slot intrusion.

Some impressive rates of SLP drop in stations in Ireland - up to 9mb in last 3 hours.

[matt111]

8 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

A few 50's and 51's showing up on their forecast for my location now. I'm aching to break my station record! 

Gusts in the high 40's showing most of the day here with a 50 and 52 in there. Weren't any in the 50's earlier. 

[toggerob]

Just to warn anyone with FB, 'Doris' is one of the trends and the usual scammers are out the plaguing people's posts with iffy-links. I've had to resort to sharing the details on Doris privately as in the space of 5 minutes I had 7 of these scammers bombarding the post and out of nowhere too.

[Frost HoIIow]

Slight downgrade up here for the windspeed according to local Met Office forecast but those automated ones should be taken with a pinch of salt. Non the less it possibly looks like old Doris could track a bit further south than expected. Hopefully she will edge another 150-200 miles south and I will be in the snow 

[toggerob]

http://www.mwis.org.uk/english-welsh-forecast/PD/

Strong wording being issued by MWIS for today...Showers. Storm or hurricane force upland winds. Rain/snow clearing..Expect walking to be arduous at best although in morning very difficult conditions indeed: any mobility tortuous and wind chill severe. Temporary whiteout possible.

[Chris.R]

Beginning to feel the wind  gathering itself  now. Picking up minute by minute. 

[Rob Walker]

49 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

Looking at the gust forecast from UKMO, they now think the strongest winds will be further south 

 

43 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

A few 50's and 51's showing up on their forecast for my location now. I'm aching to break my station record! 

 

33 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Gusts in the high 40's showing most of the day here with a 50 and 52 in there. Weren't any in the 50's earlier. 

 

27 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Slight downgrade up here for the windspeed according to local Met Office forecast but those automated ones should be taken with a pinch of salt. Non the less it possibly looks like old Doris could track a bit further south than expected. Hopefully she will edge another 150-200 miles south and I will be in the snow 

Same indication of a slightly southward shift going by the local forecast for here too; actually indicating 6 hours of 50-56mph gusts from the ukmo (to 1 hour of 50+ from the prior run). Not sure I'm seeing that correlate with the center of the low being much off forecast track though? 

I guess at least we don't have long to find out how this plays out!

Edited February 23, 2017 by Rob Walker
missed out a number value

[Snipper]

All calm and peaceful here at the moment other than the snoring of the other half as she has a cold. 

[toggerob]

IR satellite corresponds with the surface-pressure forecast issued by the MetO with the center approaching Belmullet at this time, Doris is still on-track imho and with pressure gradients falling -9mb p/h as expected. 3 hours from now the higher gusts will begin to crank up across the Irish Sea.

[Rob Walker]

8 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

IR satellite corresponds with the surface-pressure forecast issued by the MetO with the center approaching Belmullet at this time, Doris is still on-track imho and with pressure gradients falling -9mb p/h as expected. 3 hours from now the higher gusts will begin to crank up across the Irish Sea.

Just had a quick look back at the 1am updates; looks like the M4 bouy 62093 (to the north) had 2mb lower slp than Belmullet at 981mb 

Edited February 23, 2017 by Rob Walker

[toggerob]

Doris is now on RADAR offshore Belmullet, Ireland. Wind gusts haven't quite reached surface-level yet but evident on RADAR is the mid-layer windshearing of the cold-front, with storm-cells trying to initialize but the tops being forced ahead of themselves with sustained 90-100mph winds at FL100. Excuse the shoddy mspaint job it was a quick-draw to show the cells being sheared upwind of the center.

[Mapantz]

A couple of GIF's of the AROME & ARPEGE, respectively..

  

[Snipper]

2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

A couple of GIF's of the AROME & ARPEGE, respectively..

  

What heights are these winds for?

[Fiona Robertson]

Snow started here about 20 minutes ago,beginning to lie on wet ground and it's getting heavier. No wind to speak of.

[Mapantz]

Just now, Snipper said:

What heights are these winds for?

10 metres.

[Snipper]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

10 metres.

Thanks