Storm Doris - Atlantic Storm 4

[Darren Bown]

1 hour ago, MAF said:

out of interest. how long is the snow likely to lay? will this just be a snow event for the day? if it is then thats an awful amount of snow due to settle in a short period of time. and if it doesn't stay around long then the could a sudden thaw pose flooding problems?

Yes, the BBC mentioned that over Friday and into the weekend with another low pressure system brings rain, and a possible quick thaw.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 minute ago, Delka said:

How is it looking for my area? And when would the worst sustained winds and gusts come through? I'm planning a nice walk tomorrow but it wouldn't be too nice to be out in the peak of what looks to be a pretty nasty storm.. I'd rather know beforehand how bad it might be and stay home in the warm nice and safe!

70-80 mph gusts between 1 and 4-5p.m. would be my estimate.

[Daniel*]

Some folk? many folk will not like the arpege which is modelling 80mph gusts damaging winds for central and eastern areas - a little concerning. 

[Paul]

Couple of images we've put together to show the areas at highest risk of disruption from the wind and also the snow. 

 

[toggerob]

How i'd love to be a fly-on-the-wall at NATS tomorrow morning, i'm hoping that airlines are already placing contingency plans in-preparation for Doris with Liverpool, Manchester, LBA, Midlands, Doncaster/Sheffield all expected to bear the brunt of the strongest winds tomorrow morning throughout the rush hour. Not to forget the +50mph gusts around the other areas of England and Wales, on top of the likely rail and road delays.

[Darren Bown]

I'm as concerned about Doris as much as the storm in Feb 2014 that hit NW England. I'm quite exposed to a westerly here, so am expecting some quite nasty gusts during the morning.

Edited February 22, 2017 by Darren Bown

[Mapantz]

The ARPEGE does have a tendency to go one step beyond when modelling wind gusts. It did the same with an area of low pressure that affected Southern areas and the Southeast a little while back. It's certainly going to be nasty, though.

Edited February 22, 2017 by Mapantz

[P-M]

16 minutes ago, Paul said:

Couple of images we've put together to show the areas at highest risk of disruption from the wind and also the snow. 

 

 

I'm slap bang under the main snow area so happy with that!

 

[Delka]

Meto has sustained winds of 46mph here for two hours tomorrow afternoon, windgusts peak at 14:00 in forecast at 66mph, hoping it doesn't upgrade and that if anything it downgrades.. love a good storm but looking a bit too windy for too many areas

[toggerob]

snow-forecast.com

[Paul]

The Netwx-SR 12z (hires, 4km) has a core of really strong winds through tomorrow morning and early pm. 

 

 

Plenty of snow too:

  

[Snipper]

Is this another cry wolf event?  Hopefully yes as my fence is due for repair even if no high winds hit. 

[Spikecollie]

34 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

How i'd love to be a fly-on-the-wall at NATS tomorrow morning, i'm hoping that airlines are already placing contingency plans in-preparation for Doris with Liverpool, Manchester, LBA, Midlands, Doncaster/Sheffield all expected to bear the brunt of the strongest winds tomorrow morning throughout the rush hour. Not to forget the +50mph gusts around the other areas of England and Wales, on top of the likely rail and road delays.

BA are usually the first to start cancelling flights. The springs of 2014 and 2015 (I think I have got that right) were a 'mare for frequent travellers.

Edited February 22, 2017 by Spikecollie

[Matty M]

EURO4 12z is rolling out and notably quicker with deepening of Doris...

Edited February 22, 2017 by Matty M

[E4-Fatboy]

With my limted understanding, I thought the hypothesis, with regard for the potential of damaging winds from "Doris" was if the cyclogenesis bombed out over the UK and at this stage, isn't this is still highly speculative. Would I be correct.  If the bombs out in the north sea, the winds will be nowhere near ,what is forcast. Are we over egging the pudding or is the probablility rising that this is now highly likely.

[Paul]

Snow accumulations from the netwx-sr. Some big falls over the hills. 

[WillinGlossop]

36 minutes ago, Paul said:

The Netwx-SR 12z (hires, 4km) has a core of really strong winds through tomorrow morning and early pm. 

 

 

Plenty of snow too:

  

Snow and 60-80mph winds in peaks.... snake and woodhead closed tomorrow then....

[Summer Sun]

Train companies are starting to make alterations ahead of Doris

"Arriva Trains Wales

A 50 mph speed restriction will be imposed at a number of locations in Wales, resulting in possible delays of up to 15 minutes. Services will also be temporarily suspended between Wolverhampton and Birmingham International - the last service out of Birmingham will be the 09:10 Birmingham International to Holyhead, resuming with the 11:27 Holyhead to Birmingham (New Street only).

London Midland

London Midland are working to run as many train services as possible tomorrow. Trains may have to run at a slower speed, meaning longer journey times and a number of residual delays and cancellations. It is strongly advised to check your journey before you travel tomorrow.

Southern

Disruption to train services is expected from 08:00 onwards, and may increase in severity throughout the day.

London to Portsmouth/Southampton via Barnham: Between around 11:00 and 18:00 customers travelling on the route between Southampton/Portsmouth and London may need to change trains at Barnham. Trains to and from London will only be running to and from Bognor Regis.

London Victoria to Brighton: Between around 11:00 and 18:00 there will only be 1 direct train per hour between London Victoria and Brighton, customers should use Thameslink services to and from London, changing at East Croydon for travel to and from London Victoria.

Ashford to Brighton: Direct trains from Ashford to Brighton will only run between Ashford and Eastbourne, customers will need to change and use alternative services between Eastbourne and Brighton.

Customers should see the Alternative Routes poster here for Southern, or at the station, for more information on how to complete your journey should your service be affected. Southern have more background information on their website.

Thameslink

Disruption to train services is expected from 08:00 onwards, and may increase in severity throughout the day.

London Bridge to Brighton: There will be no direct service from London Bridge to Brighton between around 11:00 and 18:00, customers should travel to East Croydon and change for alternative trains towards Brighton.

Customers should see the Alternative Routes poster here for Thameslink, or at the station, for more information on how to complete your journey should your service be affected. Please be aware that buses have a limited capacity and you may not be able to board the first available bus.

Virgin Trains

Virgin Trains plan to run a full timetable on Thursday 23 February. But speed restrictions mean it is possible journeys might take longer than usual. If customers want to change their journey, tickets for travel tomorrow can either be used for the rest of today, or on Friday providing you begin your journey before 14:00.

Virgin Trains East Coast

Virgin Trains East Coast are advising any customers booked to travel on their services tomorrow to travel either tonight or before midday on Friday, with apologies for any inconvenience."

http://www.nationalrail.co.uk/service_disruptions/today.aspx

[Darren Bown]

7 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:

Snow and 60-80mph winds in peaks.... snake and woodhead closed tomorrow then....

That snow seems a little more widespread on the hills than earlier today?

[ManiaMuse]

10 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Train companies are starting to make alterations ahead of Doris

"Arriva Trains Wales

A 50 mph speed restriction will be imposed at a number of locations in Wales, resulting in possible delays of up to 15 minutes. Services will also be temporarily suspended between Wolverhampton and Birmingham International - the last service out of Birmingham will be the 09:10 Birmingham International to Holyhead, resuming with the 11:27 Holyhead to Birmingham (New Street only).

London Midland

London Midland are working to run as many train services as possible tomorrow. Trains may have to run at a slower speed, meaning longer journey times and a number of residual delays and cancellations. It is strongly advised to check your journey before you travel tomorrow.

Southern

Disruption to train services is expected from 08:00 onwards, and may increase in severity throughout the day.

London to Portsmouth/Southampton via Barnham: Between around 11:00 and 18:00 customers travelling on the route between Southampton/Portsmouth and London may need to change trains at Barnham. Trains to and from London will only be running to and from Bognor Regis.

London Victoria to Brighton: Between around 11:00 and 18:00 there will only be 1 direct train per hour between London Victoria and Brighton, customers should use Thameslink services to and from London, changing at East Croydon for travel to and from London Victoria.

Ashford to Brighton: Direct trains from Ashford to Brighton will only run between Ashford and Eastbourne, customers will need to change and use alternative services between Eastbourne and Brighton.

Customers should see the Alternative Routes poster here for Southern, or at the station, for more information on how to complete your journey should your service be affected. Southern have more background information on their website.

Thameslink

Disruption to train services is expected from 08:00 onwards, and may increase in severity throughout the day.

London Bridge to Brighton: There will be no direct service from London Bridge to Brighton between around 11:00 and 18:00, customers should travel to East Croydon and change for alternative trains towards Brighton.

Customers should see the Alternative Routes poster here for Thameslink, or at the station, for more information on how to complete your journey should your service be affected. Please be aware that buses have a limited capacity and you may not be able to board the first available bus.

Virgin Trains

Virgin Trains plan to run a full timetable on Thursday 23 February. But speed restrictions mean it is possible journeys might take longer than usual. If customers want to change their journey, tickets for travel tomorrow can either be used for the rest of today, or on Friday providing you begin your journey before 14:00.

Virgin Trains East Coast

Virgin Trains East Coast are advising any customers booked to travel on their services tomorrow to travel either tonight or before midday on Friday, with apologies for any inconvenience."

http://www.nationalrail.co.uk/service_disruptions/today.aspx

Well Virgin West Coast and London midland are being ballsy not preventively cancelling anything when they are probably the services most likely to be affected out of all that lot.

Southern and Thameslink just looking for excuses to cancel services?

[The PIT]

Well 60 to 70 mph winds for us tomorrow  83 mph to beat not been matched since 2005 I've seen an 81 mph and few 70++ since then though. Won't have to worry about snow though.

[IanR]

1 hour ago, Darren Bown said:

I'm as concerned about Doris as much as the storm in Feb 2014 that hit NW England. I'm quite exposed to a westerly here, so am expecting some quite nasty gusts during the morning.

driving into work in st helens should be fun tommorow for me 

[Gray-Wolf]

1 minute ago, The PIT said:

Well 60 to 70 mph winds for us tomorrow  83 mph to beat not been matched since 2005 I've seen an 81 mph and few 70++ since then though. Won't have to worry about snow though.

Hi Pit!

I thought you were just sayin' you could not trust them to get it right up thread??? Never say never Bud! You could wake up to a full blown Blizzard in the morning if they have it really wrong ( LOL)

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

The rain on the current radar looks a bit early to me, anyone else? 

[Spikecollie]

16 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Hi Pit!

I thought you were just sayin' you could not trust them to get it right up thread??? Never say never Bud! You could wake up to a full blown Blizzard in the morning if they have it really wrong ( LOL)

Worried for my OH in the Aire Valley tomorrow, like he was for me during our recent storm. I hope everything is OK for all of you over there. We could have done without "Doris" this week of all weeks!