Storm Doris - Atlantic Storm 4

[Super_Uwe]

Been keeping an eye on the forecast, and wind gust speeds gradually edging upwards for us here in the South Hams. Don't think we'll be the worst affected by any means, but it looks nasty for other parts of the country.

[ManiaMuse]

11 minutes ago, tinybill said:

Looking at the latest updates things could get very intestine  now down south on Thursday  ,could be a lot of main bridges  shut causing a lot of trouble

I hope not!

How long are the worst of the winds likely to last? 2-3 hours or longer?

 

[Badgers01]

1 hour ago, The PIT said:

Left hand not knowing what the right hand is doing.

It's like a warning for heavy rain while the local forecast says dry

with all the extra traffic and interest from storm Doris it would be good if the MO could be on top of this ...

[Jo Farrow]

The Met Office are now mentioning the risk of Storm Force winds. The Fsxx this morning showed a more active inner cold front. Don't worry too much if you are on the edge of an Amber or YEllow warning area. This low is going to deliver very windy weather across a large part of the UK. A gust of 60mph could cause a tree to fall and disruption. The main core area which could see damaging gusts over 80mph runs from Merseyside, N.Wales through N,mids, S.Yorks across Lincs into East Anglia. It is still be analysed as a setup that could produce a sting jet over the UK, which is when the exceptionally strong winds occur. Very difficult to forecast exactly where, often closer to time a red-warning is issued, is it looks to be at mornign rush hour, not overnight. It's been windy enough for northern and eastern parts today from the low near to SCotland, hopefully people won't think Doris has already started. This does look nasty for Thursday morning, lunchtime for eastern areas. Never mind the potential snow fall S.Scotland into Norhtern England.

 

[Jo Farrow]

6 minutes ago, ManiaMuse said:

I hope not!

How long are the worst of the winds likely to last? 2-3 hours or longer?

 

 

Looks quite awful for your region. early hours through the morning= gales, and even when Doris moves off into the North Sea, there will be a strong NW wind, with 40mph gusts continuing and feeling really cold. 

[Jo Farrow]

4 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

with all the extra traffic and interest from storm Doris it would be good if the MO could be on top of this ...

What is it you are unsure of. I think the Met Office will be watching the development of this low  very carefully

[MAF]

Thanks for the updates Jo. I have just commented in the regional how even though London is out of the warning area, 50 mph wind gust could stil topple a few trees, and definitely remove some branches. So, yes, rush hour/lunchtime here in central London may be not so good for commuters.

[FetchCB]

3 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

with all the extra traffic and interest from storm Doris it would be good if the MO could be on top of this ...

From what I can see they are...the storm is only just developing and likelihood of damaging winds is dependent on the timings of the  Jet Stream and the system still developing. If either are slightly out then the winds will not be as damaging. Not an easy call and computers can only help so much.

The issuing of the weather warnings has far greater impact than just to keep us weather junkies advise,. it also initiates procedures within the 1st Repsonder community and all that it entails

[Beverley Lass]

4 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

 

5 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

The Met Office are now mentioning the risk of Storm Force winds. The Fsxx this morning showed a more active inner cold front. Don't worry too much if you are on the edge of an Amber or YEllow warning area. This low is going to deliver very windy weather across a large part of the UK. A gust of 60mph could cause a tree to fall and disruption. The main core area which could see damaging gusts over 80mph runs from Merseyside, N.Wales through N,mids, S.Yorks across Lincs into East Anglia. It is still be analysed as a setup that could produce a sting jet over the UK, which is when the exceptionally strong winds occur. Very difficult to forecast exactly where, often closer to time a red-warning is issued, is it looks to be at mornign rush hour, not overnight. It's been windy enough for northern and eastern parts today from the low near to SCotland, hopefully people won't think Doris has already started. This does look nasty for Thursday morning, lunchtime for eastern areas. Never mind the potential snow fall S.Scotland into Norhtern England.

 

 

I think that sentence could be misinterpreted Jo.  ?
 

[Gael_Force]

24 minutes ago, tinybill said:

Looking at the latest updates things could get very intestine  now down south on Thursday  ,could be a lot of main bridges  shut causing a lot of trouble

Yes, and there could well be a few situations to trouble the intestines too  

[Jo Farrow]

Just now, Beverley Lass said:

I think that sentence could be misinterpreted Jo.  ?
 

 

LOL, I'll clarify, both will be very windy, the boundary zone isn't set in stone

[Badgers01]

6 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

What is it you are unsure of. I think the Met Office will be watching the development of this low  very carefully

I was referring to the earlier discrepancies (mentioned on page 5 of this thread) between the maps on the Met Off web page showing max wind speeds and the warning areas'. 

[Gael_Force]

What @knocker was saying about the storm development being a Norwegian type shows up on the simulated IR from the model but is there also a hint of sting formation as the hook seems to be drying out as it crosses the country, following passage of initial front. 

[Jo Farrow]

9 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

I was referring to the earlier discrepancies (mentioned on page 5 of this thread) between the maps on the Met Off web page showing max wind speeds and the warning areas'. 

I don't know if you are happy with the answers. The amber warnings relate to impacts, not just wind strength values. The Isle of Man in not in the amber warning as it is deemed the the impacts will not be so high there. The purple map is now out of date as it was from Tues. A yellow warning is still an alert about Severe weather and the shape of the AMber is just a swathe across the part of the UK seemingly most at risk from these extreme winds.

[robb]

18 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

The Met Office are now mentioning the risk of Storm Force winds. The Fsxx this morning showed a more active inner cold front. Don't worry too much if you are on the edge of an Amber or YEllow warning area. This low is going to deliver very windy weather across a large part of the UK. A gust of 60mph could cause a tree to fall and disruption. The main core area which could see damaging gusts over 80mph runs from Merseyside, N.Wales through N,mids, S.Yorks across Lincs into East Anglia. It is still be analysed as a setup that could produce a sting jet over the UK, which is when the exceptionally strong winds occur. Very difficult to forecast exactly where, often closer to time a red-warning is issued, is it looks to be at mornign rush hour, not overnight. It's been windy enough for northern and eastern parts today from the low near to SCotland, hopefully people won't think Doris has already started. This does look nasty for Thursday morning, lunchtime for eastern areas. Never mind the potential snow fall S.Scotland into Norhtern England.

 

Living in the Wirral area this is not good news.  I've seen many severe NW gales over the years and the funnelling effect between the Clwyd Hills and the Pennines/Peak District as deep depressions pass to the east can give very damaging gusts through the Wirral, Merseyside and the Cheshire Gap.

[johnholmes]

1 hour ago, The PIT said:

Come on John you'll have seen occasions where they have contradicted themselves so stop being so high mighty. Guess you don't understand what smilies are for.

high and might=comic Pit, you post the most negative comments about just about anything on here.

If I feel they are in the wrong then I post as such, plenty of evidence over the years about that.

Nope don't use smilies pal, me age you see, approaching 80 and some things are beyond me!

[Jo Farrow]

John, NW England was your stomping ground, where is most at risk in these westerlies forecast in #StormDoris 

[johnholmes]

hard to say Jo but coastal areas if it corresponds to high water; and the Mersey tends to funnel winds if around 250-280 with the tide in. Never did work out what the mechanics were on this. The high ground east of Manchester could also be in line for additionally strong gusts. But we could say that for areas north of Manchester as well. Areas to the lee of the Peak and Pennines may also be more prone to high gusts but with such an active and fast moving system this effect may not be too pronounced.

It does look pretty unpleasant for the Amber area Met have issued, but you will perhaps be able to tap into their latest thoughts?

[knocker]

There are no obvious developments on the Sat as yet. Well to my untrained eye anyway

[Kevin Thomas Miller]

After the chaos of the 2014 storm where the roof of Warrington Central station was damaged and trains were cancelled, I can't say i'm looking forward to crossing the Thelwall Viaduct tomorrow morning......

[toggerob]

Plenty of infrastructure within the Pennines that are westerly-facing although the key areas i'll be looking out for will be the usual high-routes (C+F, Snake Pass, Woodhead Pass) including the area in/around Hope Valley. If anyone is out chasing Doris for the winds i'd recommend Eccles Pike which is a exposed peak surrounded by a 'bowl' shaped valley and is always susceptible in weather conditions such as tomorrow's.

Edited February 22, 2017 by SNOW_JOKE

[johnholmes]

11 minutes ago, knocker said:

There are no obvious developments on the Sat as yet. Well to my untrained eye anyway

Met show it as an open wave about 46/47N 29-30W at 12z, central pressure a bit below 1020 mb

[FetchCB]

9 minutes ago, knocker said:

There are no obvious developments on the Sat as yet. Well to my untrained eye anyway

Knocker 

When I watched the Facebook broadcast from Met Office earlier the Chief Forcaster pointed to a blob of cloud and said that they could just start to see the low developing and then went on to explain that it was the shearing interaction of the jet stream that really winds the depression up.

 

trained eyes are wonderful things 

[knocker]

3 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Met show it as an open wave about 46/47N 29-30W at 12z, central pressure a bit below 1020 mb

Ah right I think I pick it up on Eumetsat

Edited February 22, 2017 by knocker

[toggerob]

Doris is still in a Baroclinic Leaf stage for the moment, ocean buoys generally pick up the deepening-center quicker than it'll show on vis/IR satellite due to the nature of these storms. http://en.sat24.com/en

Edited February 22, 2017 by SNOW_JOKE