Storm Doris - Atlantic Storm 4

[Summer Sun]

Updated amber warning

Issued at: 09:54 on Wed 22 Feb 2017

Valid from: 06:00 on Thu 23 Feb 2017

Valid to: 20:00 on Thu 23 Feb 2017

Some very strong winds are expected on Thursday in association with storm Doris with gusts of 60-70 mph likely, and 70-80 mph on coasts and hills. Whilst the strongest winds look to be only short-lived, damage to structures, interruptions to power supplies and widespread disruption to travel networks are likely, with a danger of injury from flying debris. Trees are also likely to be damaged or blown over. Heavy rain is also likely through Thursday as well as some snow over high ground as the system clears eastwards. These may prove additional hazards. The warning has been updated to extend the at-risk area southwards.

There is still some uncertainty about the track of storm Doris, but increasing confidence that there will be widespread disruption across parts of England and Wales.

Covers: East Midlands, East of England, London & South East England, North West England, South West England, Wales, West Midlands, Yorkshire & Humber

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map

[weirpig]

Met office bring the warning zone further south  with the amber zone over the whole of the midlands bordering on London, Amber for snow borders and south central Scotland

Edited February 22, 2017 by weirpig

[Summer Sun]

Updated map

Yesterday

[Chris.R]

 Widespread disruption hey; well they are  certainly being very bullish with the wording in the warnings. 

[weirpig]

Just a snap shot but 70-80mph winds quite widely on the Aperge,  Then possibly higher as it migrates east

Edited February 22, 2017 by weirpig

[knocker]

Unless I'm mistaken this is not a sting jet depression

 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

Unless I'm mistaken this is not a sting jet depression

 

Testing my knowledge here, Malcolm - would you have expected to see a breaking of the cold front near the triple point on that animation had it suggested a sting jet?

[matty40s]

Are you saying that because the cold front doesn't tuck under enough????

[knocker]

9 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Testing my knowledge here, Malcolm - would you have expected to see a breaking of the cold front near the triple point on that animation had it suggested a sting jet?

I'm a long way from being very knowledgeable about this but, to me, this looks very much like a Norwegian model development and not the Shapero-Kayser model which develops the fractured cold front and wrap around warm front and a possible sting jet. So yes Chris.

Edited February 22, 2017 by knocker

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

I'm a long way from being very knowledgeable about this but, to me, this looks very much like a Norwegian model development and not the Shapero-Kayser model which develops the fractured cold front and wrap around warm front and a possible sting jet.

Thanks Malcolm.

[Beverley Lass]

Hi all,
I'm watching this with special interest as my husband is due to drive to a work meeting in York tomorrow.

I was wondering why the Met office 'strongest winds' area on these maps doesn't match the

Amber Warnings ?  The worst winds seem to be further north than the amber warning area covers.

Keep safe all.

B.  

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 minute ago, Beverley Lass said:

Hi all,
I'm watching this with special interest as my husband is due to drive to a work meeting in York tomorrow.

I was wondering why the Met office 'strongest winds' area on these maps doesn't match the

Amber Warnings ?  The worst winds seem to be further north than the amber warning area covers.

Keep safe all.

B.  

I'm not sure, as, in theory, the two ought surely to be similar?  All I can suggest is that it reflects a disparity between where they expect the highest windspeeds to be, and where they anticipate the most severe impacts (the basis of warning maps).

[huntso]

7 minutes ago, Beverley Lass said:

Hi all,
I'm watching this with special interest as my husband is due to drive to a work meeting in York tomorrow.

I was wondering why the Met office 'strongest winds' area on these maps doesn't match the

Amber Warnings ?  The worst winds seem to be further north than the amber warning area covers.

Keep safe all.

B.  

Guessing the map you have shown was before they updated the Amber Warning area further southwards this morning.

Only the very northern part of Cambs was highlighted before, now its the whole county that's covered

Edited February 22, 2017 by huntso

[Beverley Lass]

Thanks both.  Yes, maybe the highest wind area map needs updating.

B.

[The PIT]

Left hand not knowing what the right hand is doing.

It's like a warning for heavy rain while the local forecast says dry

[johnholmes]

28 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Left hand not knowing what the right hand is doing.

It's like a warning for heavy rain while the local forecast says dry

Have you ever had to do something similar Pit? I can assure you trying to juggle umpteen balls in the air and get them all down correctly is far from easy. Might help to be a bit less critical!

[Summer Sun]

57 minutes ago, Beverley Lass said:

Hi all,
I'm watching this with special interest as my husband is due to drive to a work meeting in York tomorrow.

I was wondering why the Met office 'strongest winds' area on these maps doesn't match the

Amber Warnings ?  The worst winds seem to be further north than the amber warning area covers.

Keep safe all.

B.  

 

I'm fairly sure those 2 maps were issued yesterday

[Pat Butcher]

55 minutes ago, huntso said:

Guessing the map you have shown was before they updated the Amber Warning area further southwards this morning.

Only the very northern part of Cambs was highlighted before, now its the whole county that's covered

Yeah, I was wondering this too - the West Yorkshire urban area clearly seems in for a battering according to the models. Maybe the MetO feel that the Pennines to the West of Yorkshire may provide more shelter than the models depict?

[Darren Bown]

Hi all,

 

Been having a read up on all of this this morning. Quite an interesting day to come tomorrow, for practically all weather types! MetO have gusts around 63mph forecast around lunchtime tomorrow. This is interesting, as similar gusts were forecast back in Feb 2014 (almost to the day, think we are out about 5-7 days!), when there was that bad storm that had winds over 80/90mph widely in NW England and caused chaos during the evening. (I remember the red warning out for that:. Doris doesn't seem to be quite as vicious, even though the bad winds are quite widespread!

[The PIT]

37 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Have you ever had to do something similar Pit? I can assure you trying to juggle umpteen balls in the air and get them all down correctly is far from easy. Might help to be a bit less critical!

Come on John you'll have seen occasions where they have contradicted themselves so stop being so high mighty. Guess you don't understand what smilies are for.

[FetchCB]

32 minutes ago, Davethedog said:

Yeah, I was wondering this too - the West Yorkshire urban area clearly seems in for a battering according to the models. Maybe the MetO feel that the Pennines to the West of Yorkshire may provide more shelter than the models depict?

Weather Warnings uses the Probability Impact Grid ie the higher the likeleyhood and the higher the impact the greater the warning 

This is the grid for Eastern England

 

More info on the impacts can be found here http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/guide/weather/severe-weather-advice   along with some guidance about the terminology used in the warnings.

I suspect therefore that if the warning area does not coincide with the highest speeds it must be that the impacts are not envisaged to be as great.

[toggerob]

The Barocyclonic-Leaf of Doris is just coming into view on the recent met.ie IR satellite link, still some time off yet until full cyclogenesis occurs.

http://www.met.ie/sat/euro-ir.asp

[Paul]

Can we drop the north vs south thing please, it's tedious and is a quick fire way to ruin what has up to now been an interesting thread. 

[Alpine glow]

Met Office currently live on Facebook about Doris 

 

[tinybill]

Looking at the latest updates things could get very intestine  now down south on Thursday  ,could be a lot of main bridges  shut causing a lot of trouble