Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Storm Doris - Atlantic Storm 4


Summer Sun

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.

All the talk so far has mostly been about the wind, but the snow that I might get looks impressive. BBC say 5-10cm but you can usually add another inch and a bit to the actual total... Bring it on! 

Windspeeds look dangerous for you folk in central England, but wouldn't be as bad if it was up here in Scotland. Strange to think that tbh...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
On 21/02/2017 at 23:15, Fiona Robertson said:

Thanks anyway,I think I'm beginning to see what's going on. The piccie of the St Jude storm with the big black dry area over Denmark has helped.Am I right to think that the wee tip curling into the black area,the very centre of the system, is the sting jet?

The sting jet in the image is just beyond the little curl of white cloud. The dry, cold air descending evaporates the cloud head and gives it the cut off look rather than the traditional swiss roll type spiral banding. A diagram here explains the process and where to look. Open in a new tab and enlarge for easier to read text.

5f033c7069396a2668af8e736e15d049.png

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1017/S1350482704001379/pdf

On 21/02/2017 at 23:49, weirpig said:

Quick look at the arpege really turns up the wind speeds. Some area could hit over 90 mph. Let's hope not

Looks nasty!

ARPEGE over egged the pudding, leading to our red warning a couple of weeks back but it is usually a very reliable model for this type of extreme wind event.

Edited by Nouska
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Livingston (ish)
  • Location: Livingston (ish)
45 minutes ago, Nouska said:

The sting jet in the image is just beyond the little curl of white cloud. The cold air descending evaporates the cloud head and gives it the cut off look rather than the traditional swiss roll type spiral banding. A diagram here explains the process and where to look. Open in a new tab and enlarge for easier to read text.

5f033c7069396a2668af8e736e15d049.png

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1017/S1350482704001379/pdf

Looks nasty!

ARPEGE over egged the pudding, leading to our red warning a couple of weeks back but it is usually a very reliable model for this type of extreme wind event.

Right, I think I'm beginning to understand what's going on. Now all I have to do is work out the why. Thank you!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Boar's Hill, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Interesting weather
  • Location: Boar's Hill, Oxon

I know Doris isn't here yet but I just put the bins out and I am enjoying the wild wind outside, makes a change from the last few months.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: M25 Herts/Bucks border And the NW
  • Location: M25 Herts/Bucks border And the NW

I also just took some time to stand in the blustery winds outside and I must say it did feel refreshing after months of stagnant like weather. As such I am looking forward to the next few days and the incoming weather. Besides my excitement though, I do hope that everyone stays alert and safe because the strength of the winds are looking quite significant from as early as rush hour traffic on Thursday morning.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

On to the Arpege 0z...

I make this around 90 mph gust wise slamming into NW England

arpegeuk-11-35-0.png?22-05

arpegeuk-11-36-0.png?22-05

It then follows through into the E Midlands mid afternoon

arpegeuk-11-38-0.png?22-05

 

I think it will be down to the hi res models the UKMO use as to whether a red warning goes live later on for coastal areas. If they see 90 mph gusts then one will be issued, if not then it'll probably stay as amber.

Edited by CreweCold
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

On to the Arome hi res...

aromehd-11-35-0.png?22-05

aromehd-11-36-0.png?22-05

aromehd-11-37-0.png?22-05

 

Similar areas at risk to GFS and Arpege...gusts not showing as high as Arpege however. 60-70 mph fairly common place even inland across NW England and N Midlands. Perhaps touching 75-80 mph as the system tracks off towards the E of the UK in the afternoon.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Slight downgrade on the 00oz GFS down from 70 - 80 to 60 -70 for us.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

The areas currently under greatest threat looks similiar to the areas that were badly hit by that great gale of early January 1976. I hope it is not as bad as this storm.

Yep the day I was born parents said it was a nightmare 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

Doris expected 54N/10W 988 by midnight. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

 Might be worth keeping an eye on buoy 62095 later in the afternoon as the centre could pass close by. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

24hrs till the event and the difference between 2 models is significant

Arpege                                                      GFS

33_ukwindvector_gust.png00_36_windvector_gust.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London
33 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 Might be worth keeping an eye on buoy 62095 later in the afternoon as the centre could pass close by. 

Bouy info here > http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=62095 might be some interesting data from some of the bouys in the North Sea (62121, 62144, 62145, 62148 & 62149)

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny with night time t-storms
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
23 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

I wish they wouldn't use that phrase! I'd rather they stuck to "explosive cyclogenesis", even if people don't fully understand it. Anything with the word "bomb" is too sensationalist.

Is Doris likely to undergo EC, by the way? Or do we just have to wait and see?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...

Luckily the tides are at their lowest meaning coastal flooding should be minimal, high tide in the NW is about the same time as the low passes through the Irish Sea 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...