March 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

[Summer Sun]

8.4 to the 20th

3.1 above the 61 to 90 average

2.2 above the 81 to 10 average

[Man With Beard]

43 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

8.4 to the 20th

3.1 above the 61 to 90 average

2.2 above the 81 to 10 average

Blimey, haven't looked in here for a while, didn't realise it was that mild this month!

Synoptics have been ok for mild but nothing out of the ordinary I thought?? 

Surely some climatic changes at hand!

[Roger J Smith]

From current GFS would estimate 7.6 by end of this week then slow or very slight rises back to around 8.0 before corrections at end of month. I want to see the modern climate match 1777 for all-time March warmth if we're going to have this warmer spell, but doesn't look like it (11-12 perhaps one of those days). Something about the 1770s and spring warmth, records for April come from 1775. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield on 7.8C a drop tomorrow to 7.7C then milder nights should offset any day time drops until Friday and Saturday where the opposite is possible.

[Summer Sun]

8.2 to the 21st

2.9 above the 61 to 90 average

2.0 above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny sheffield down 7.7C today will make  dint with temperatures 3c below forecast values. Expecting 7.5C for tomorrow. At the moment 1.4C above normal.

[NorthYorksWeather]

8.0c here to the 21st, 2.2c above the 1981-2010 average.

Gonna take a stab at a month finish of 7.7c.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Min today of 3.6C, while maxima climbed to around into the low 8s, so a drop to 8.1C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

8.1C to the 23rd (6.5: -0.4)
8.1C to the 24th (8.0: +0.6)
8.0C to the 25th (7.2: -0.1)
8.0C to the 26th (7.5: +0.3)
8.0C to the 27th (8.7: +1.6)
8.0C to the 28th (7.4: +0.2)
8.0C to the 29th (8.0: +0.8)
8.0C to the 30th (9.0: +1.4)
8.1C to the 31st (9.8: +1.8)

Based on the 5 day forecast and data from all previous years, the likely upper and lower values for the end of month, before corrections, is 7.7C and 7.1C. However, the forecast is for temperatures above the upper 90% values, finishing on 8.1C before corrections.

[summer blizzard]

On 3/21/2017 at 12:19, Man With Beard said:

Blimey, haven't looked in here for a while, didn't realise it was that mild this month!

Synoptics have been ok for mild but nothing out of the ordinary I thought?? 

Surely some climatic changes at hand!

Maxima was in the high teens last week and minima near double figures over the weekend. Persistent but unexceptional warmth i suppose. 

[snowray]

It's going to be the night temps that are going to make a big difference from now til the end of the month, much lower than last week. In fact I surprised to see a 0c already recorded at Benson and 1c/2c's in a fair few locations in the Midlands and towards Wales earlier on this evening.

[Summer Sun]

8.1 to the 22nd

2.8 above the 61 to 90 average

1.8 above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 7.5C staying the same probably tomorrow.  Some warm weather around next week so I wasn't be surprised at hitting 8C by the end of the month.

[Summer Sun]

8.1 to the 23rd

2.7 above the 61 to 90 average

1.8 above the 81 to 10 average

_____________________________________

Current high this month

8.4 to the 20th

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still 7.5C. Next few days will be interesting for the daily range in temps

[Chris.R]

An impressive 13.2°C diurnal range today with a max of 14.9°C.

Month mean fluctuating between 8.2–8.4. 

Edited March 24, 2017 by Chris.R

[NorthYorksWeather]

7.8c here to the 23rd, 2c above 1981-2010 average.

We could well see a large diurnal range tomorrow too with a forecast low of -1c and a high of 13/14c.

[Summer Sun]

8.1 to the 24th

2.7 above the 61 to 90 average

1.7 above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Colder night than expected and the first air frost of the month. End result average in Sunny Sheffield has dropped to 7.4C

[Summer Sun]

8.0 to the 25th

2.6 above the 61 to 90 average

1.6 above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today is 3.0C, while maxima looks like being around the mid 14s, so an increase to 8.1C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

8.1C to the 27th (8.7: +1.6)
8.1C to the 28th (9.3: +2.0)
8.2C to the 29th (11.0: +3.8)
8.4C to the 30th (13.2: +5.6) [Record High: 13.4C]
8.5C to the 31st (11.9: +3.9)

A final value somewhere between 8.3 and 8.6C before corrections, 7.8 to 8.6C after corrections, looks most likely.

8.6C would give us the 3rd warmest March on record, while 7.8C would be joint 16th. Just 7.9C is required for the top 10, so probably a 90%+ chance of achieving that.
 

Top 10 March values
1st    9.2C    1957
2nd   9.1C    1938
3rd    8.4C    1997
4th    8.3C    2012, 1990, 1948
7th    8.2C    1961, 1750
9th    8.1C    1734
10th  7.9C    1998, 1991, 1981, 1945, 1780, 1779

[summer blizzard]

I have to say that i am not pleased with that end result. 2012 was a month which was spectacular from a few days in to the end, it was stupidly sunny and had a couple of occasions where it was as good as or if not better than the current spell. This march until wednesday has been rather unimpresive with high values driven more by minima and fairly cloudy. This is a worthy spell but it is not a worthy month and it devalues the greats to finish up there. 

One must ask though, with a CET more than 1.5C above the average.. what does April need for warmest Feb-April. 

[Don]

Since July 2013, we really have had a sustained period of above average temperatures, probably unlikely to relent anytime soon!

Edited March 26, 2017 by Don

[I remember Atlantic 252]

7 minutes ago, Don said:

Since July 2013, we really have had a sustained period of above average temperatures, probably unlikely to relent anytime soon!

could end soon, will be back in Nov of course, unless averages are revised for 2000-2017

Edited March 26, 2017 by I remember Atlantic 252

[summer blizzard]

35 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

could end soon, will be back in Nov of course, unless averages are revised for 2000-2017

If it's any comfort we are on pace to pass 100 spotless days for the year (by rolling percentage) so 2007 is a solar analogue. I'm confident that come July we will be rolling in a sea of shivering mud. 

[Summer Sun]

8.1 to the 26th

2.6 above the 61 to 90 average

1.7 above the 81 to 10 average

_____________________________________

Current high this month

8.4 to the 20th