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March 2017 C.E.T. forecasts


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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Although not in the CET zone, 19c was breached around here this afternoon and I would not be in the bit surprised to see a 20c high somewhere.

8c+ looking likely tomorrow.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
24 minutes ago, snowray said:

Although not in the CET zone, 19c was breached around here this afternoon and I would not be in the bit surprised to see a 20c high somewhere.

8c+ looking likely tomorrow.

So, no surprise, another 'snow' month running at above average! I reckon next few months average or below, until Nov which will be above

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Years when March 1-15 CET exceeded 7.46 (7.5) ... and end of month values (1772 to 2016)

Rank/Year _______ CET 1-15 March ___ CET end of March (rank)*

 1 _1957 ________ 9.27 __ 9.3 _____ 9.2 (1)

 2 _1961 ________ 9.13 __ 9.1 _____ 8.2 (t-7)

 3 _1834 ________ 8.69 __ 8.7 _____ 7.1 (t-43)

 4 _2000 ________ 8.33 __ 8.3 _____ 7.6 (t-19)

 5 _1826 ________ 8.31 __ 8.3 _____ 6.3 (t-98)

 6 _1859 ________ 8.27 __ 8.3 _____ 7.3 (t-31)

 7_1991 ________ 8.20 __ 8.2 _____ 7.9 (t-10)

 8 _1997 ________ 8.15 __ 8.1 _____ 8.4 (3)

 9 _1938 ________ 8.08 __ 8.1 _____ 9.1 (2)

10 _1977 ________ 7.95 __ 8.0 _____ 6.9 (t-53)

11 _1948 ________ 7.91 __ 7.9 _____ 8.3 (t-4)

12 _1872 ________ 7.89 __ 7.9 _____ 6.8 (t-55)

13 _2007 ________ 7.88 __ 7.9 _____ 7.2 (t-37)

14 _1926 ________ 7.87 __ 7.9 _____ 6.3 (t-98)

15 _1994 ________ 7.85 __ 7.9 _____ 7.7 (t-17)

16 _1990 ________ 7.79 __ 7.8 _____ 8.3 (t-4)

17 _1959 ________ 7.67 __ 7.7 _____ 7.3 (t-31)

18 _1981 ________ 7.64 __ 7.6 _____ 7.9 (t-10)

19 _1828 ________ 7.57 __ 7.6 _____ 6.6 (t-72)

20 _1933 ________ 7.55 __ 7.5 _____ 7.3 (t-31)

21 _1780 ________ 7.54 __ 7.5 _____ 7.9 (t-10)

22t_1882 ________ 7.53 __ 7.5 _____ 7.4 (t-27)

22t_1893 ________ 7.53 __ 7.5 _____ 7.2 (t-37)

22t_1989 ________ 7.53 __ 7.5 _____ 7.5 (t-22)

25t_1992 ________ 7.46 __ 7.5 _____ 7.5 (t-22)

25t_1868 ________ 7.45 __ 7.5 _____ 6.8 (t-55)

______________________________________________

*(rank) __ These are ranked all-time but only ranks below 1961 (7th) involve any years outside the daily portion (before 1772), the top 25 years added from that portion are 1750 (8.2, tied 7th), 1734 (8.1, 9th), and 1753 (7.5, tied 22nd).

Meanwhile, these years made the top 20 (including ties) without a very mild (above 7.4) start:

2012 (8.3, tied 4th, started with 7.17)

1945 (7.9, tied 10th, started with 6.34)

1779 (7.9 tied 10th, started with 7.07)

1822 (7.8, 16th), started with 6.73)

1830 (7.7, tied 17th), started with 6.54)

2002 and 2014 (7.6, tied 19th) started with 6.42 and 7.20 respectively.

and 1777 which finished on 6.8 (tied 55th) and had the warmest day (14.8, 27th) started with 5.27. 

 

ANALYSIS

Of these top 26 first half cases, six finished warmer, two finished on the same value and 18 had a cooler finish although usually still in the top 30 all time. The worst finish of any of these were 1826 and 1926 which managed 6.3 (tied 98th warmest). The average fall in temperature was 0.4 C, so the general rule seems to be considerable warmth fading to slight warmth relative to normal. The mean of April temperatures for these 26 years was not remarkable either way, some were quite cool (1989 for example, 6.6) and some quite warm (2007, 1961) but the majority fell near the April long-term average. 

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

Crosby up to 8.3°C (+1.7) now with the mean max up to 10.7°C (+1.3). 

 Warmest max of the year again for the second consecutive day; max 14.3°C. 

Edited by Chris.R
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
35 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

So, no surprise, another 'snow' month running at above average! I reckon next few months average or below, until Nov which will be above

I make you right there blinking typical. I have suspected for some time that we will get a cold easter this year, and a cooler than average April/May.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Looks like we are going to take the number 10 slot for mildest 1-15th March.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Highest official reading just in, 18.8c at Kew, so that should be the warmest day temp so far this year. I don't think that we will be getting anything close to that for some time now as things look like cooling down a fair bit, maybe not until April.:closedeyes:

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield at 7.5C

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
9 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

8.0 to the 15th

2.8 above the 61 to 90 average

2.0 above the 81 to 10 average

Very impressive considering March is a "warming" month.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m

7.7c to the 16th here, 1.9c above the 1981-2010 average. 

 More rises likely this week before a possibly sharp drop next week as we introduce cooler air. 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

First pause in the rise here so still at 7.5C. Should fall next week so Sunday could be the high point of the month.

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

8.3°C (+1.7) here

Mean min: 6.0°C (+2.2)

Mean max: 10.8°C (+1.4)

Edited by Chris.R
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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

We're at 8.6C (+2.5C) now, which is 0.2C higher than the current warmest March on record (1990). It will probably rise again tomorrow before dropping back, but to be this high 18 days into the month when its a warming month is impressive.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m

7.8c to the 17th here, 2c above the 1981-2010 average. A rise to 8c looking likely come Monday. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
3 hours ago, reef said:

We're at 8.6C (+2.5C) now, which is 0.2C higher than the current warmest March on record (1990). It will probably rise again tomorrow before dropping back, but to be this high 18 days into the month when its a warming month is impressive.

Yes its impressive, and most of the upcoming cold spell will end up in the Atlantic just for a change, not the north sea, I can't see much of a drop.

Things warm up again with HP at the end of the month, so who knows where we will end up, maybe a bit higher still.

gfs-1-120.png

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield on 7.8C  a short cold snap coming up then some warm days followed by cold nights to end the month.  Finally figure around 7.5 for us I reckon.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
6 hours ago, The PIT said:

Sunny Sheffield on 7.8C  a short cold snap coming up then some warm days followed by cold nights to end the month.  Finally figure around 7.5 for us I reckon.

The theme of the year so far continuing with any cold spell downgraded to virtually nowt.......

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield up to 7.9C. Cold snap going to be pretty short with mild day time temperatures back at the end of week however nights are likely to be cool so any recovery in day time temps will be offset by the nights.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m

8.2c to the 19th here, 2.4c above the 1981-2010 average.

Cool down on the way but by how much?

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