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March 2017 C.E.T. forecasts


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March CET 1981-2010 averages and 1772-2016 extremes   DATE ___ MAX ____________ MIN _________ CET date ___ CET cum 01 Mar ... 10.7 (1878) ... ... ... ... -3.5 (1785) ... ... ... ... 5.0

March CET averages and extremes 14.7 ... Warmest March daily mean (27th, 1777)  9.2 ... Warmest March (1957)  9.1 ... 2nd warmest March (1938)  8.4 ... 3rd warmest March (1997)  8.3 ... 4t

Final value for March is now in and, surprisingly, it's 8.7C, a rare upward correction! I'll add a few more stats and details during the day, but it's a clear 3rd warmest March on record. EDIT 1:

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The midnight hour approaches (for you at least) and I have a table of entries ready to post over in the Scoring thread. Here it is:

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/75427-cet-competition-the-scores-ongoing/?page=7

 

As of (edit) midnight, 68 on time entries and the median is 6.5 C. These values are untaken

 

-- Anything above 7.8 except 12.0

... 7.7

... 5.4, 5.2, 5.0

... 4.8, all 4.0 to 4.6

... (noting BLAST FROM THE PAST said 4.0 over in the long range thread, could be considered an entry)

-- and anything below 3.9 which is currently the low guess. 

This post will be edited if some of these values are chosen. And late entries will be added to the table of entries, which I will post very soon.

 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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March CET 1981-2010 averages and 1772-2016 extremes

 

DATE ___ MAX ____________ MIN _________ CET date ___ CET cum

01 Mar ... 10.7 (1878) ... ... ... ... -3.5 (1785) ... ... ... ... 5.0 ... ... ... 5.0
02 Mar ... 11.1 (1777) ... ... ... ... -3.2 (1965) ... ... ... ... 4.8 ... ... ... 4.9
03 Mar ... 11.0 (1777) ... ... ... ... -3.9 (1965) ... ... ... ... 4.9 ... ... ... 4.9
04 Mar ... 12.3 (1859) ... ... ... ... -2.9 (1909) ... ... ... ... 4.7 ... ... ... 4.8
05 Mar ... 10.9 (1834) ... ... ... ... -2.8 (1786&1909) .... 5.4 ... ... ... 5.0

06 Mar ... 12.0 (1989) ... ... ... ... -4.7 (1786) ... ... ... ... 6.4 ... ... ... 5.2
07 Mar ... 10.9 (1875) ... ... ... ... -3.3 (1947) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... ... 5.4
08 Mar ... 12.2 (2000) ... ... ... ... -3.1 (1786) ... ... ... ... 6.5 ... ... ... 5.5
09 Mar ... 12.4 (1948) ... ... ... ... -3.0 (1917) ... ... ... ... 6.2 ... ... ... 5.6
10 Mar ... 11.6 (1957) ... ... ... ... -2.4 (1883) ... ... ... ... 6.9 ... ... ... 5.7

11 Mar ... 12.6 (1957) ... ... ... ... -1.9 (1847) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... ... 5.8
12 Mar ... 13.4 (1957) ... ... ... ... -2.4 (1785) ... ... ... ... 6.0 ... ... ... 5.8
13 Mar ... 12.8 (1991) ... ... ... ... -6.5 (1845) ... ... ... .. 6.3 ... ... ... 5.9
14 Mar ... 11.5 (1805) ... ... ... ... -3.7 (1845) ... ... ... ...6.6 ... ... ... 5.9
15 Mar ... 11.9 (1884) ... ... ... ... -1.6 (1867) ... ... ... ... 7.0 ... ... ... 6.0

16 Mar ... 13.2 (2004) ... ... ... ... -3.0 (1845) ... ... ... ... 6.9 ... ... ... 6.1
17 Mar ... 13.2 (2005) ... ... ... ... -2.2 (1845) ... ... ... ... 7.5 ... ... ... 6.1
18 Mar ... 14.1 (1990) ... ... ... ... -1.3 (1853) ... ... ... ... 7.1 ... ... ... 6.2
19 Mar ... 11.8 (1822) ... ... ... ... -0.9 (1814) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... ... 6.2
20 Mar ... 12.3 (1779) ... ... ... ... -1.6 (1845) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... ... 6.2

21 Mar ... 11.7 (1927,1931) ... ... -1.6 (1899) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... ... 6.2
22 Mar ... 12.6 (1903) ... ... ... ... ..-0.9 (1837) ... ... ... ... 6.9 ... ... ... 6.3
23 Mar ... 12.1 (1852,1945) ... ... -0.8 (1837,1899) ...... 6.9 ... ... ... 6.3
24 Mar ... 13.4 (1776) ... ... ... ... ..-0.6 (1879) ... ... ... ... 7.4 ... ... ... 6.4
25 Mar ... 13.9 (1777) ... ... ... ... ..-1.3 (1853) ... ... ... ... 7.3 ... ... ... 6.4

26 Mar ... 14.6 (1777) ... ... ... ... . -0.3 (1879,1901) ..... 7.2 ... ... ... 6.4
27 Mar ... 14.8 (1777) ... ... ... ... . +0.1 (1901) ... ... ... ...7.1 ... ... ... 6.4
28 Mar ... 12.6 (1822,1998) ... ... -0.3 (1785) ... ... ... ... 7.2 ... ... ... 6.5
29 Mar ... 13.4 (1813) ... ... ... ... . -0.7 (1785) ... ... ... ... 7.2 ... ... ... 6.5
30 Mar ... 13.4 (1920) ..... ... ... ... 0.0 (1799) ... ... ... ... 7.6 ... ... ... 6.5

31 Mar ... 13.8 (1815) ... ... ... ... . -0.8 (1799) ... ... ... ... 8.0 ... ... ... 6.6

Edited by Roger J Smith
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5.8c here to the 6th, 0.4c below the 1981-2010 average.

Looking at my local BBC 5 day forecast, we will see a rise in the coming days.

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12z GFS suggests a slow rise to about 7.2 C by middle of next week, then a slight drop around 17th to 20th to about 6.5 C and a very slight rise to the end of the run, so likely to be in high 6 to near 7 territory with a week to go. If the model is anywhere near right, that is to say. 

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2 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

12z GFS suggests a slow rise to about 7.2 C by middle of next week, then a slight drop around 17th to 20th to about 6.5 C and a very slight rise to the end of the run, so likely to be in high 6 to near 7 territory with a week to go. If the model is anywhere near right, that is to say. 

If indeed,  interesting that the METO have now changed their longer term outlook, gone is the seemingly never ending "Chance" of something much colder to develop, to temps around average with blocking favoured, not the northern type though.

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