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March 2017 C.E.T. forecasts


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March CET 1981-2010 averages and 1772-2016 extremes   DATE ___ MAX ____________ MIN _________ CET date ___ CET cum 01 Mar ... 10.7 (1878) ... ... ... ... -3.5 (1785) ... ... ... ... 5.0

March CET averages and extremes 14.7 ... Warmest March daily mean (27th, 1777)  9.2 ... Warmest March (1957)  9.1 ... 2nd warmest March (1938)  8.4 ... 3rd warmest March (1997)  8.3 ... 4t

Final value for March is now in and, surprisingly, it's 8.7C, a rare upward correction! I'll add a few more stats and details during the day, but it's a clear 3rd warmest March on record. EDIT 1:

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After another false lead in February - where to, this month....

I doubt it will be average but best to pick that as options seem to be either very mild or quite cool - depending on ridge/trough placement.

6,8C.

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Not expecting a particularly mild month, but given we seem to be stuck in a long run of above average months, the safe bet is above average, so lets go with 6.9 degrees. Mind I think if we are to see a break from the current long mild spell then it will be this month with a chance of something a fair bit colder emerging. A marked north-south split looks probable with Scotland and far north of england below average, the south more exposed to milder tropical maritime air at times. Wouldn't at all be surprised if some places see there heaviest snowfall of the season this month - not to be unexpected given how woeful snowfall has been this winter.

 

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Below is the March CET from 1659-2016 in blue, the 30 year average in red and the linear trend in black

zU9i3uS.png

The CET this month is likely to finish somewhere between 5.7C and 6.3C. The average March following Februarys in that range is 6.2C

The linear trend for the whole record is +0.41C per century. Following this trend gives a March CET of 6.1C.
The linear trend since 1850 is +0.96C per century. Following this trend gives a March CET of 6.5C.
The linear trend since 1950 is +1.84C per century. Following this trend gives a March CET of 6.7C.
The linear trend over the last 50 years is +2.76C per century. Following this trend gives a March CET of 6.9C.
The linear trend over the last 30 years is -2.38C per century. Following this trend gives a March CET of 6.3C.
 

The current 30 year average for March, of 6.68C, is the highest it's been on record, beating the 6.65C average from last year. Anything more than 4.3C this year will result in a new high for the 30 year aveage.

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Model madness and hints of highly anomalous conditions one way or the other.

A plain and simple 6.4*C will have to do please. I'd not be surprised to see a 3-4 day run of exceptional warmth trash this, though!

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