March 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

[J10]

So based on 8.7c I have updated my scores. 

Seasonal
1. Virtualsphere 500.0
2. March           497.4
3. reef              473.6

Overall
1. daveshug                      481.0
2. I remember Atlantic 252 471.2
3. reef                              458.7

Mar 2017 CET.xlsx

March 2017 CET.pdf

Edited April 6, 2017 by J10

[seaside 60]

Thanks J10.

I darent even look at how bad my results are. lol...

[I remember Atlantic 252]

15 minutes ago, seaside 60 said:

Thanks J10.

I darent even look at how bad my results are. lol...

mine are not too bad, but considering I'm the ultimate, christmas pudding-ist, have guessed too low, which is unusual, for me to guess too low in 'snow' months

[seaside 60]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

mine are not too bad, but considering I'm the ultimate, christmas pudding-ist, have guessed too low, which is unusual, for me to guess too low in 'snow' months

Gone to low every month since Dec expecting cold glory and failed big time.

Gone over this month and its not going to be enough lol..

[Methuselah]

14th/23rd...Better than I thought!

[Roger J Smith]

Update on the performances of three "index value" non-human contestants ...

 

_________________ DEC 2016 ________  JAN 2017 ________  FEB 2017 _______ MAR 2017

FORECASTER ____ Fx _ Err _ Pts (rk) __ Fx _ Err _ Pts (rk) __ Fx _ Err _ Pts (rk) __ Fx _ Err _ Pts (rk)

Normal 1981-2010 __4.6_-1.4_79.6 (21) __4.4_+0.4_69.9 (29) __4.4_-1.7_56.1 (36) __ 6.6_-2.1_59.0 (30)

Normal 1987-2016 __5.0_-1.0_89.8 (11) __ 4.6_+0.6_58.0 (40) __ 4.8_-1.3_67.4 (27) __ 6.7_-2.0_61.8 (28)

Consensus (median)_3.9_-2.1_50.0 (50)__ 3.9 _--0.1_95.7 (5) __ 4.3 _-1.8_52.4 (39) __ 6.5_-2.2_56.2 (32)

As explained earlier, ranks are equal to the first actual forecast submitted of equal error, in this case nobody but far-out LG went above 8.7 so there were no tied forecasts of opposite sign (again). Anyway, the rankings for the annual contest and seasonal (which will be identical as my assumption is to compare only against people who enter all months) are derived from the posted tables.

The average errors for these three and ranks would be:

FORECASTER ________ TOTAL POINTS __ Rank ______ Average abs error __ Rank

1981-2010 normal _________ 264.6 _______ 11th ___________ 1.40 ________ T-15th

last 30 years average ______ 277.0 ________ 9th ____________1.23 ________ T-9th

Consensus (median) _______ 254.3 ________16th ___________1.55________ T-20th

Once again, these are only relative to those who entered all months, one entry with three months has more points than lowest ranked consensus. There are quite a few partial entries with lower average errors so if you check the table you'll see that this is only a comparison against those who have played all months. Our group performance continues to lag behind random since a random forecast would be one of the other two. Possibly March will see a big gain for consensus over the normals, if most of us were right in our forecasts.

 

Edited April 7, 2017 by Roger J Smith

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

14th/23rd...Better than I thought!

2nd for snow season, but expected really, as I'm a mild believer

[virtualsphere]

Nice to top the monthly competition - thought I'd gone way too high but turns out I was slightly on the low side! 

[davehsug]

I'm saving that one, it'll never last! Must be the worst performance ever to top the table

[Roger J Smith]

March CET 1981-2010 averages and 1772-2017 extremes

 

DATE ___ MAX ____________ MIN _________ CET date ___ CET cum

01 Mar ... 10.7 (1878) ... ... ... ... -3.5 (1785) ... ... ... ... 5.0 ... ... ... 5.0
02 Mar ... 11.1 (1777) ... ... ... ... -3.2 (1965) ... ... ... ... 4.8 ... ... ... 4.9
03 Mar ... 11.0 (1777) ... ... ... ... -3.9 (1965) ... ... ... ... 4.9 ... ... ... 4.9
04 Mar ... 12.3 (1859) ... ... ... ... -2.9 (1909) ... ... ... ... 4.7 ... ... ... 4.8
05 Mar ... 10.9 (1834) ... ... ... ... -2.8 (1786&1909) .... 5.4 ... ... ... 5.0

06 Mar ... 12.0 (1989) ... ... ... ... -4.7 (1786) ... ... ... ... 6.4 ... ... ... 5.2
07 Mar ... 10.9 (1875) ... ... ... ... -3.3 (1947) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... ... 5.4
08 Mar ... 12.2 (2000) ... ... ... ... -3.1 (1786) ... ... ... ... 6.5 ... ... ... 5.5
09 Mar ... 12.4 (1948) ... ... ... ... -3.0 (1917) ... ... ... ... 6.2 ... ... ... 5.6
10 Mar ... 11.6 (1957) ... ... ... ... -2.4 (1883) ... ... ... ... 6.9 ... ... ... 5.7

11 Mar ... 12.6 (1957) ... ... ... ... -1.9 (1847) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... ... 5.8
12 Mar ... 13.4 (1957) ... ... ... ... -2.4 (1785) ... ... ... ... 6.0 ... ... ... 5.8
13 Mar ... 12.8 (1991) ... ... ... ... -6.5 (1845) ... ... ... ... 6.3 ... ... ... 5.9
14 Mar ... 11.5 (1805) ... ... ... ... -3.7 (1845) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... ... 5.9
15 Mar ... 11.9 (1884) ... ... ... ... -1.6 (1867) ... ... ... ... 7.0 ... ... ... 6.0

16 Mar ... 13.2 (2004) ... ... ... ... -3.0 (1845) ... ... ... ... 6.9 ... ... ... 6.1
17 Mar ... 13.2 (2005) ... ... ... ... -2.2 (1845) ... ... ... ... 7.5 ... ... ... 6.1
18 Mar ... 14.1 (1990) ... ... ... ... -1.3 (1853) ... ... ... ... 7.1 ... ... ... 6.2
19 Mar ... 11.8 (1822) ... ... ... ... -0.9 (1814) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... ... 6.2
20 Mar ... 12.3 (1779) ... ... ... ... -1.6 (1845) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... ... 6.2

21 Mar ... 11.7 (1927,1931) ... ... -1.6 (1899) ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... ... 6.2
22 Mar ... 12.6 (1903) ... ... ... ... .-0.9 (1837) ... ... ... ... 6.9 ... ... ... 6.3
23 Mar ... 12.1 (1852,1945) ... ... -0.8 (1837,1899) ...... 6.9 ... ... ... 6.3
24 Mar ... 13.4 (1776) ... ... ... ... .-0.6 (1879) ... ... ... ... 7.4 ... ... ... 6.4
25 Mar ... 13.9 (1777) ... ... ... ... .-1.3 (1853) ... ... ... ... 7.3 ... ... ... 6.4

26 Mar ... 14.6 (1777) ... ... ... ... .-0.3 (1879,1901) ..... 7.2 ... ... ... 6.4
27 Mar ... 14.8 (1777) ... ... ... ...  +0.1 (1901) ... ... ... ...7.1 ... ... ... 6.4
28 Mar ... 12.6 (1822,1998) ... ... -0.3 (1785) ... ... ... ... 7.2 ... ... ... 6.5
29 Mar ... 13.4 (1813) ... ... ... ...  -0.7 (1785) ... ... ... ... 7.2 ... ... ... 6.5
30 Mar ... 15.1 (2017) ..... ... ... ... 0.0 (1799) ... ... ... ... 7.6 ... ... ... 6.5 __ record was 13.4 in 1920

31 Mar ... 13.8 (1815) ... ... ... ... . -0.8 (1799) ... ... ... ... 8.0 ... ... ... 6.6