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Roger J Smith

March 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

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March CET averages and extremes

14.7 ... Warmest March daily mean (27th, 1777)

 9.2 ... Warmest March (1957)
 9.1 ... 2nd warmest March (1938)
 8.4 ... 3rd warmest March (1997)
 8.3 ... 4th warmest March (1948,1990, 2012)
 8.2 ... 7th warmest March and warmest before 20th century (1750, tied with 1961)
 7.6 ... 2014 CET
 

 6.7 ... mean of 1987-2016

 6.6 ... mean of 1981-2010 and 1986-2015

 6.4 ... mean of 21st century (2001-2016) and 2015 CET
 6.3 ... mean of 1971-2000


 5.8 ... mean of 20th century (1901-2000) and 2016 CET
 5.7 ... mean of 1961-1990
 5.33... mean of all 358 years (1659-2016)
 5.2 ... mean of 19th century (1801-1900)
 5.0 ... mean of 18th century (1701-1800)

 4.6 ... mean of (CET portion of) 17th century (1659-1700)

 2.8 ... Coldest March of 20th century (1962)

 2.7 ... Coldest March since 1892 (2013) ... tied with 1892 and 1784 joint 12th coldest March

 1.8 ... 3rd coldest March (1748)
 1.2 ... 2nd coldest March (1785)
 1.0 ... Coldest March (1674)

 1.0 ... Mean of last ten days of March 2013 (22nd-31st)

 0.6 ... Mean of the five days 22nd-26th March 2013

-3.9 ... Coldest March daily mean in last 50 yrs (3rd, 1965)
-6.5 ... Coldest March daily mean (13th, 1845)

Enter your forecast by the end of Tuesday, 28 Feb to avoid time penalties, or by the end of Friday 3rd of March with time penalties but before the absolute deadline.

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I want to follow the 1995 pattern and go average with the effects of the ssw and vortex weakening coming into play. Only thing is I've gone too low the last 3 months:laugh:

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7.4° zonal start, low after low and very wet/mild, then late March, getting more settled/cooler then signs of HLB that will dominate April

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6.2c please.

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Not expecting any special this March... Cool start, some reasonable warmth later....and above average rainfall....

6.5c is my guess. Cheers

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5.1°C

Thank you please!

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5.9c for me thanks :)

Edited by Dami
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Think March will be cooler than average.

6.2c

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I was so close in December, but the cold bias came out in me for both Jan and Feb and my scores have taken a battering!

So it's back to CET science for this month.  Working on the basis that February will end up warmer than January, and looking at years where the previous December was also warmer than the preceding November, I get...

years followed by March CET

1910 - 1911 _ 5.2C

1911 - 1912 _ 7.2C

1912 - 1913 _ 6.2C

1919 - 1920 _ 7.2C

1921 - 1922 _ 4.6C

1934 - 1935 _ 6.6C

1942 - 1943 _ 6.5C

1965 - 1966 _ 6.5C

1971 - 1972 _ 6.5C

2013 - 2014 _ 7.6C

That little run of 6.5C and 6.6C is enough scientific convincing for me.  I'm going for 6.6C

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On ‎18‎/‎02‎/‎2017 at 18:50, Roger J Smith said:

March CET averages and extremes
......

-3.9 ... Coldest March daily mean in last 50 yrs (3rd, 1965)

.

I really wish March 1965 was in the last 50 years!!  I'd be younger!

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12C  :(  Last sub 2C March in 1883.  Last sub 3C, last sub 4C, last sub 5C and last sub 5.5C March in 2013.

Edited by Lettucing Gutted
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4.9 for me please

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