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March 2017 C.E.T. forecasts


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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

To put it into perspective March here is currently running at -6.6c 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield at 7.9C and will finish on 8C

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

This is an update on a post that I made back in mid-month ... using the current estimates which I will edit for final data. Ranks in table and discussion have been adjusted on the assumption that 2017 finishes solo third at 8.5 or 8.6. Will edit all relevant numbers when the final CET values are posted.  

Starting from 9th place at mid-point of month, 2017 passed all but two (1957, 1938) in the top ten to finish third. Gained more (0.6) than any warm first half contender except for 1938 which gained 1.0, however 2012 gained 1.1 on its way to top five status. 

 

Years when March 1-15 CET exceeded 7.46 (7.5) ... and end of month values (1772 to 2017)

Rank/Year _____ CET 1-15 March ___ CET end of March (rank)*

 1 _1957 ________ 9.27 __ 9.3 _____ 9.2 (1)

 2 _1961 ________ 9.13 __ 9.1 _____ 8.2 (t-8)

 3 _1834 ________ 8.69 __ 8.7 _____ 7.1 (t-44)

 4 _2000 ________ 8.33 __ 8.3 _____ 7.6 (t-20)

 5 _1826 ________ 8.31 __ 8.3 _____ 6.3 (t-97)

 6 _1859 ________ 8.27 __ 8.3 _____ 7.3 (t-32)

 7_1991 _________8.20 __ 8.2 _____ 7.9 (t-11)

 8 _1997 ________ 8.15 __ 8.1 _____ 8.4 (4)

 9 _2017 ________ 8.09 __ 8.1 _____ 8.7 (3)

10_1938 ________ 8.08 __ 8.1 _____ 9.1 (2)

 

11 _1977 ________ 7.95 __ 8.0 _____ 6.9 (t-54)

12 _1948 ________ 7.91 __ 7.9 _____ 8.3 (t-5)

13 _1872 ________ 7.89 __ 7.9 _____ 6.8 (t-56)

14 _2007 ________ 7.88 __ 7.9 _____ 7.2 (t-38)

15 _1926 ________ 7.87 __ 7.9 _____ 6.3 (t-99)

16 _1994 ________ 7.85 __ 7.9 _____ 7.7 (t-18)

17 _1990 ________ 7.79 __ 7.8 _____ 8.3 (t-5)

18 _1959 ________ 7.67 __ 7.7 _____ 7.3 (t-32)

19 _1981 ________ 7.64 __ 7.6 _____ 7.9 (t-11)

20 _1828 ________ 7.57 __ 7.6 _____ 6.6 (t-73)

21 _1933 ________ 7.55 __ 7.5 _____ 7.3 (t-32)

22 _1780 ________ 7.54 __ 7.5 _____ 7.9 (t-11)

23t_1882 ________ 7.53 __ 7.5 _____ 7.4 (t-28)

23t_1893 ________ 7.53 __ 7.5 _____ 7.2 (t-38)

23t_1989 ________ 7.53 __ 7.5 _____ 7.5 (t-23)

26t_1992 ________ 7.46 __ 7.5 _____ 7.5 (t-23)

26t_1868 ________ 7.45 __ 7.5 _____ 6.8 (t-56)

______________________________________________

*(rank) __ These are ranked all-time but only ranks below 1961 (8th) involve any years outside the daily portion (before 1772), the top 25 years added from that portion are 1750 (8.2, tied 8th), 1734 (8.1,10th), and 1753 (7.5, tied 23rd).

Meanwhile, these years made the top 20 (including ties) without a very mild (above 7.4) start:

2012 (8.3, tied 5th, started with 7.17)

1945 (7.9, tied 11th, started with 6.34)

1779 (7.9 tied 11th, started with 7.07)

1822 (7.8, 17th), started with 6.73)

1830 (7.7, tied 18th), started with 6.54)

2002 and 2014 (7.6, tied 20th) started with 6.42 and 7.20 respectively.

and 1777 which finished on 6.8 (tied 56th) and had the warmest day (14.8, 27th) until 30 March 2017 (15.1) started with 5.27. 

 

Edited by Roger J Smith
confirmed 2017 data to complete the table
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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield finished on 8C. The 7th warmest recorded. Rainfall average.

Edited by The PIT
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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

It was indeed the warmest on record for us (since 1980), with a mean of 8.9C (+2.5C), beating 1990 by 0.5C.

Hadobs seems to be down again at the moment.

Edited by reef
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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

March here in Crosby finished on the following: 

mean min: 5.8°C (+2.0)

mean max: 11.9°C (+2.5)

final month mean: 8.7°C (+2.1). 

0 air frosts, 24 double figure days.

 Warmest daily mean 13.8°C on the 30th. 

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m

Finished 8.3c here with a very mild end, 2.5c above the 1981-2010 average.

Also 3c warmer than last March.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

We don't know the exact finishing value for March CET but it seems clear that Virtualsphere and March have finished top scores (in that order based on time of entry) thanks to their 7.8 C forecasts. (Only Lettucing Gutted went over the likely final value of 8.0-8.5 and at 12.0, would only be ahead of the few forecasts at 5.0 or lower, depending on the exact numbers). 

Third place will be Reef (7.6, early forecast) and fourth Summer Blizzard (7.6, later forecast).

I managed to scoop fifth place (7.5) which will help me put the pain of Dec-Jan further into the past.

These folks also managed to foresee an outcome of 7.0 or higher:

 

7.4 ... I REMEMBER ATLANTIC 252, NORRANCE
7.3 ... DAVID SNOW

7.2 .. VIZZY2004, GAEL_FORCE, DON, DAVEHSUG, BORN FROM THE VOID

7.1 ... ED STONE, MARK4, J10, BLUE_SKIES_DO_I_SEE, CRUCIBLE 72

7.0 ... STARGAZER, DR HOSKING

All of the above depends on my not having made any omissions or errors in the table of forecasts, and remains subject to verification by J10 when the actual final number is revealed and scoring tables appear.

Meanwhile, tracking the three non-human forecasters, I can say with the same qualification as above that Consensus (of the 70 forecasts) finished 32nd (the rank of the earliest 6.5 entrant), while 1987-2016 mean (6.7) finished 28th and 1981-2010 finished 30th.

This will probably drop them down a few ranks from where I had them after three months (Dec to Feb) and I will post the actual statistics for them when we have a result. 

In general, consensus was near normal (slightly below in fact) but the month may finish as high as third place (out of 359 although also out of the last 80 including this one). 1957 and 1938 will likely remain 1-2. This year could finish joint third at 8.4 with 1997.

J10 will have the official scoring report some time this week, we hope (UKMO willing). 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

Finished at  9.3c for Weston Super Mare, milder than last April.

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Posted
  • Location: Ouse Valley, N. Bedfordshire. 48m asl.
  • Location: Ouse Valley, N. Bedfordshire. 48m asl.

Finally! Been a few months since I guessed closest. 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Still awaiting the official figure for March Hadley was going well after its problems earlier in the year as well

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On 02/04/2017 at 18:06, Roger J Smith said:

We don't know the exact finishing value for March CET but it seems clear that Virtualsphere and March have finished top scores (in that order based on time of entry) thanks to their 7.8 C forecasts. (Only Lettucing Gutted went over the likely final value of 8.0-8.5 and at 12.0, would only be ahead of the few forecasts at 5.0 or lower, depending on the exact numbers). 

Third place will be Reef (7.6, early forecast) and fourth Summer Blizzard (7.6, later forecast).

I managed to scoop fifth place (7.5) which will help me put the pain of Dec-Jan further into the past.

These folks also managed to foresee an outcome of 7.0 or higher:

 

7.4 ... I REMEMBER ATLANTIC 252, NORRANCE
7.3 ... DAVID SNOW

7.2 .. VIZZY2004, GAEL_FORCE, DON, DAVEHSUG, BORN FROM THE VOID

7.1 ... ED STONE, MARK4, J10, BLUE_SKIES_DO_I_SEE, CRUCIBLE 72

7.0 ... STARGAZER, DR HOSKING

All of the above depends on my not having made any omissions or errors in the table of forecasts, and remains subject to verification by J10 when the actual final number is revealed and scoring tables appear.

Meanwhile, tracking the three non-human forecasters, I can say with the same qualification as above that Consensus (of the 70 forecasts) finished 32nd (the rank of the earliest 6.5 entrant), while 1987-2016 mean (6.7) finished 28th and 1981-2010 finished 30th.

This will probably drop them down a few ranks from where I had them after three months (Dec to Feb) and I will post the actual statistics for them when we have a result. 

In general, consensus was near normal (slightly below in fact) but the month may finish as high as third place (out of 359 although also out of the last 80 including this one). 1957 and 1938 will likely remain 1-2. This year could finish joint third at 8.4 with 1997.

J10 will have the official scoring report some time this week, we hope (UKMO willing). 

5

Thanks for that, I can confirm all of your figures are spot on, but this is always the case anyway. :)

The intermittent nature of the CET at the moment is a little frustrating. The scores are pretty much ready to go (if and when they are confirmed. )

 

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
On 3/31/2017 at 08:10, cheeky_monkey said:

To put it into perspective March here is currently running at -6.6c 

Final figure for here was -6.3c ..which is approx 2c below normal.

Edited by cheeky_monkey
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Posted
  • Location: Ouse Valley, N. Bedfordshire. 48m asl.
  • Location: Ouse Valley, N. Bedfordshire. 48m asl.
13 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

well I would expect that! looking at your username, and the month

Username is a mixture of a tribute to my birth month and because it's the start of my fave season. :smile:

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

So 3rd warmest March it is then.:)

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

The 8.6C is still provisional. They've updated all the provisional daily data but we're still waiting on the corrected values. However, given that the final value is 8.59, it's very unlikely corrections will take the CET below 8.2C

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Final value for March is now in and, surprisingly, it's 8.7C, a rare upward correction! I'll add a few more stats and details during the day, but it's a clear 3rd warmest March on record.

EDIT 1: The 30th is now down as 15.1C, making it the warmest March day on record and the first March day to break 15C!

Edited by BornFromTheVoid
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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

 That means Crosby finished on the same figure as the CET; quite rare. 

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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

I was sceptical of that original figure for the 30th as we had a mean here of 15.7C and are very much north of the CET zone. Its quite impressive how warm that is for late March.

Been a while since we had an upward adjustment too!

Edited by reef
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
4 hours ago, reef said:

I was sceptical of that original figure for the 30th as we had a mean here of 15.7C and are very much north of the CET zone. Its quite impressive how warm that is for late March.

Been a while since we had an upward adjustment too!

Yes the northern stations had more cloud on the 30th but had an exceptionally mild start with more cloud cover than further south- I imagine this was the case with Stonyhurst. A lot of places started at 13 or 14C first thing. It was also very mild up to midnight- it was still 15C in these parts.

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