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March 2017 C.E.T. forecasts


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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
20 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

I have to say that i am not pleased with that end result. 2012 was a month which was spectacular from a few days in to the end, it was stupidly sunny and had a couple of occasions where it was as good as or if not better than the current spell. This march until wednesday has been rather unimpresive with high values driven more by minima and fairly cloudy. This is a worthy spell but it is not a worthy month and it devalues the greats to finish up there. 

One must ask though, with a CET more than 1.5C above the average.. what does April need for warmest Feb-April. 

Exactly what I said above - maximum temp records being challenged with ease these days. If average conditions produce temperatures just a degree higher than they did 50 years ago, the cet is always going to tend on the high side.

30 years ago this kind of month would have been in the top 20% or top 30% on the all-time list, but nowhere near the top 10%.

All in my opinion!!

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m

7.7c to the 26th here, 1.9c above the 1981-2010 average. 

Looking like final figure will be about 2c above average.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield at 7.5C +1.2C above average. Guessing 7.8 to 7.9c will be the landing point.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
23 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

I have to say that i am not pleased with that end result. 2012 was a month which was spectacular from a few days in to the end, it was stupidly sunny and had a couple of occasions where it was as good as or if not better than the current spell. This march until wednesday has been rather unimpresive with high values driven more by minima and fairly cloudy. This is a worthy spell but it is not a worthy month and it devalues the greats to finish up there. 

One must ask though, with a CET more than 1.5C above the average.. what does April need for warmest Feb-April. 

Working out everything to the nearest 0.1C, the warmest Feb-Mar-Apr is 8.4C from 1779, 1945 and 1961.
In order for 2017 to average 8.5C, March and April need to average a record high of 9.7C. The highest this month is likely to finish on is 8.6C, with the lowest being about 8.0C. So below are a few of the March and April values needed to achieve the warmest Feb-Apr period

March    April
8.6C      10.7C
8.4C      10.9C
8.2C      11.1C
8.0C      11.3C

In the event of an 8.2C value for March, April only needs to average 10.5C to set a record for the average combined March and April

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

EDIT: Double posted

Edited by BornFromTheVoid
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
36 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Working out everything to the nearest 0.1C, the warmest Feb-Mar-Apr is 8.4C from 1779, 1945 and 1961.
In order for 2017 to average 8.5C, March and April need to average a record high of 9.7C. The highest this month is likely to finish on is 8.6C, with the lowest being about 8.0C. So below are a few of the March and April values needed to achieve the warmest Feb-Apr period

March    April
8.6C      10.7C
8.4C      10.9C
8.2C      11.1C
8.0C      11.3C

In the event of an 8.2C value for March, April only needs to average 10.5C to set a record for the average combined March and April

Not as likely as i thought but we have hit 10C in April four times in the past decade. 

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

So, I looked into this concept of a warm four-year period, here's what I found out:

Using 8.3 for March 2017, the four year average CET (April 2013 to March 2017) would be 10.34

No likely outcome will move it off 10.34.

The warmest four calendar years would be 2003-06 at 10.56 (same rounded for 2004-07).

The warmest four years starting on any month would be 10.68 starting in either May or June 2003 (ending then either April or May 2007).

In fact all twelve maximum values start in 2003. The value for Jan 2004 to Dec 2007 is lower in three decimals and there were no other ties with the 2003-starting values. 

If April were to finish at 12.0 and set a record, then the value for May 2013 to April 2017 will be 10.47 where the record was 10.65 for May 2003 to April 2007. 

---------------------------------------------------------------------

As to the warmest 3-year intervals, it is the same story, all the warmest periods begin in 2004. The warmest three calendar years in a row would be 2004 to 2006 (10.58) tied by 2005 to 2007 but lower in third decimal value. 

After that, the various 3-year max values all start with a month in 2004 and end with the relevant month in 2006. The highest of them is 10.71 for both May 2004-April 2006 and June 2004-May 2006.

We are currently on 10.35 for the 8.3 (or any other probable) finish for March and would move as high as 10.44 with a record warm April.There was a similar peak of three-year warmth from April 1947 to March 1950 (10.43) and unaided by fossil fuels in any way, May 1731 to April 1734 managed 10.32 C. 

 

 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York
35 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

So, I looked into this concept of a warm four-year period, here's what I found out:

Using 8.3 for March 2017, the four year average CET (April 2013 to March 2017) would be 10.34

No likely outcome will move it off 10.34.

The warmest four calendar years would be 2003-06 at 10.56 (same rounded for 2004-07).

The warmest four years starting on any month would be 10.68 starting in either May or June 2003 (ending then either April or May 2007).

In fact all twelve maximum values start in 2003. The value for Jan 2004 to Dec 2007 is lower in three decimals and there were no other ties with the 2003-starting values. 

If April were to finish at 12.0 and set a record, then the value for May 2013 to April 2017 will be 10.47 where the record was 10.65 for May 2003 to April 2007. 

---------------------------------------------------------------------

As to the warmest 3-year intervals, it is the same story, all the warmest periods begin in 2004. The warmest three calendar years in a row would be 2004 to 2006 (10.58) tied by 2005 to 2007 but lower in third decimal value. 

After that, the various 3-year max values all start with a month in 2004 and end with the relevant month in 2006. The highest of them is 10.71 for both May 2004-April 2006 and June 2004-May 2006.

We are currently on 10.35 for the 8.3 (or any other probable) finish for March and would move as high as 10.44 with a record warm April.There was a similar peak of three-year warmth from April 1947 to March 1950 (10.43) and unaided by fossil fuels in any way, May 1731 to April 1734 managed 10.32 C. 

 

 

So taking that to one of its logical conclusions might be that global temperatures peaked in 2007!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

8.1 to the 27th

2.5 above the 61 to 90 average

1.7 above the 81 to 10 average

_____________________________________

Current high this month

8.4 to the 20th

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On 3/26/2017 at 19:12, summer blizzard said:

I have to say that i am not pleased with that end result. 2012 was a month which was spectacular from a few days in to the end, it was stupidly sunny and had a couple of occasions where it was as good as or if not better than the current spell. This march until wednesday has been rather unimpresive with high values driven more by minima and fairly cloudy. This is a worthy spell but it is not a worthy month and it devalues the greats to finish up there. 

This would appear to be a misperception which has happened frequently recently when a seemingly unremarkable month is much warmer than average.

According to the MetO Hadcet pages to March 28th, the provisional minimum anomaly is 2.3°C - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_min.html

But the maximum anomaly is 2.7°C - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_max.html

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

8.1 to the 28th

2.6 above the 61 to 90 average

1.6 above the 81 to 10 average

_____________________________________

Current high this month

8.4 to the 20th

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield still at 7.5C looking like we will finish on 7.9C so it would be the 10th warmest on record.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

8.2 to the 29th

2.6 above the 61 to 90 average

1.7 above the 81 to 10 average

_____________________________________

Current high this month

8.4 to the 20th

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

With a minimum today of 11.5C, the maximum only needs to be 15.4C or higher for a new provisional daily record mean. Maxima look like being closer to 17C though, so the daily average could climb above 14C, something that has only occurred on 3 previous occasions.

5 warmest March days on record

1 14.8C [March 27th 1777]
2 14.6C [march 26th 1777]
3 14.1C [March 18th 1990]
4 13.9C [March 25th 1777]
5 13.8C [March 31st 1815]

3rd place on the list is certainly a possibility, requiring just 16.6C for the maximum to equal it.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield on 7.7C. Today is very warm so all eyes on tonight's low. Reckon we will finish on 7.9C

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
7 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

With a minimum today of 11.5C, the maximum only needs to be 15.4C or higher for a new provisional daily record mean. Maxima look like being closer to 17C though, so the daily average could climb above 14C, something that has only occurred on 3 previous occasions.

5 warmest March days on record

1 14.8C [March 27th 1777]
2 14.6C [march 26th 1777]
3 14.1C [March 18th 1990]
4 13.9C [March 25th 1777]
5 13.8C [March 31st 1815]

3rd place on the list is certainly a possibility, requiring just 16.6C for the maximum to equal it.

And a big jump in the CET tomorrow looks on the cards, surely 8.4, maybe 8.5c. Am I being OTT?:cc_confused:

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
4 minutes ago, snowray said:

And a big jump in the CET tomorrow looks on the cards, surely 8.4, maybe 8.5c. Am I being OTT?:cc_confused:

8.4C tomorrow, almost certainly. Then the 31st should bump us to 8.5C (8.54C, so a small change could bump it to 8.6C) before corrections.

After corrections, I'd say something close to 8.4C is most likely. A good chance of joining 1997 as the 3rd warmest March on record.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m

7.9c here to the 29th, 2.1c above the 1981-2010 average.

Quite substantial warmth this month, looking certain to finish above the normal mean temp for APRIL which is 7.8c.

Last March we finished below average, at 5.2c, so quite a difference between this March and last year.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
2 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

8.4C tomorrow, almost certainly. Then the 31st should bump us to 8.5C (8.54C, so a small change could bump it to 8.6C) before corrections.

After corrections, I'd say something close to 8.4C is most likely. A good chance of joining 1997 as the 3rd warmest March on record.

Indeed, top 5 a certainty now but joint third looking increasingly likely. Its the high night temps that are making a big difference of course.

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

8.4 to the 30th

2.8 above the 61 to 90 average

1.9 above the 81 to 10 average

_____________________________________

Current high this month

8.4 to the 20th & 30th

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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

Its looking likely it will finish on 8.9C (+2.5C) here, which smashes the previous record of 8.4C set in 1990.

Comfortably the warmest March on record and worth noting that only 9 Aprils have been warmer in the last 37 years.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

And in the top 3 now virtually guaranteed in the CET zone as temps are rising up to 14/15c after a very mild night again.

By the way, I keep seeing this map for the CET zone, can anyone confirm that it is wrong? Is it not the square shape, London up to Norfolk and then across to Lancs?

images-1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Yesterday is 14.6C, so provisionally the joint 2nd warmest March day on record.

Most likely finish on 8.6C before corrections are applied too, so a chance of the 3rd warmest March on record.

18 minutes ago, snowray said:

And in the top 3 now virtually guaranteed in the CET zone as temps are rising up to 14/15c after a very mild night again.

By the way, I keep seeing this map for the CET zone, can anyone confirm that it is wrong? Is it not the square shape, London up to Norfolk and then across to Lancs?

images-1.png

That looks about right to me. As far as I'm aware, it's a triangle rather than a square region

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
57 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Yesterday is 14.6C, so provisionally the joint 2nd warmest March day on record.

Most likely finish on 8.6C before corrections are applied too, so a chance of the 3rd warmest March on record.

That looks about right to me. As far as I'm aware, it's a triangle rather than a square region

Thanks for that, the east of the country is not represented at all then. I wonder what the square one is all about on the netweather UK temperature tracker (CET) page all about, must be doing its own thing.:cc_confused:

16c widely now in the CET zone so number 3 here we come.:)

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